CDG opts for W.E., Potter, Dragon Tattoo

Certainly didn't see this coming. The Costume Designers Guild bestowed their prize for Excellence in Period Film to Madonna's reviled W.E., only half of which is period, and the only Oscar nominee I haven't been considering as a viable winner. Figures. Well, congrats to Arianne Philips. Having been unable and unwilling to see the film, I can honestly say I have no comment.

Meanwhile, my hunch that Harry Potter would receive guild approval panned out, while the dark hued modern threads of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo took home the Contemporary award.

CDG preview

The last guild to sound off this season is the Costume Designers Guild, which announces its winners tonight. It won't have any influence on the Oscar race because final ballots are due to the Academy today, but we can still have fun guessing what the costume designers will want to reward.

Excellence in Period Film contains four of the Oscar-nominated costumers, the odd one out being Sharen Davis' swell threads from The Help which fell pray to the grabby ruffles and frills of Anonymous with the Academy's costume branch. I'll guess that Hugo, my Oscar alternate, will rule the day, but a win for The Artist (which won the BAFTA a little more than a week ago) would be perfectly understandable and deserved.

I'm still miffed that Excellence in Fantasy Film found room for Thor and X-Men but not the year-best costumes of Captain America. At any rate, I'm guessing it'll end up being Harry Potter, simply on account of it being the best reviewed nominee of the five, and as a final tip of the hat to the series. With all the Oscar attention it gets in Art Direction, people forget that Jany Temime has indeed done outstanding work on the entire franchise as well.

Excellence in Contemporary Film usually serves only as an excuse for the guild to recognize a Best Picture contender, which leads me to believe they'll spring for The Descendants here, even if it should be Drive by a country mile.

One Category at a Time: Art Direction

There are a number of categories this year where I have reasonable doubts about my predicted winner - too many categories. This is not one of them. There is a single obvious choice on which any sane Oscar-watcher should bet the bank, but it's only fair to give the other nominees their congrats:

Art Directors Guild winners

Production Design in a Period Film: Hugo

Production Design in a Fantasy Film: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2

Production Design in a Contemporary Film: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Glad to see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo get its due in the Contemporary category for Donald Graham Burt's terrific sets, fending off Best Picture nominees The Descendants and Extremely Loud. The other two winners are pretty much expected, and might represent the best bets for Oscar's Art Direction trophy. I go back and forth on whether it's Harry Potter or The Artist that's next in line behind Hugo. It's probably a moot point anyway.

ADG, Annie preview

Not much to do nowadays but twiddle our thumbs waiting for February 26th, but at least some scattered guild announcements will keep us from nodding off to sleep.

The Art Directors Guild will have its say tonight, where I expect Oscar nominees Hugo and Harry Potter will come up big in the Period and Fantasy categories respectively. They seldom show much imagination in the Contemporary category, which usually goes to whatever nominee has the most Best Picture buzz. At that, I'll make my guess for The Descendants, even though it should be The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo by a country mile.

Meanwhile, the Annie Awards also land tonight. I'm not sure how they'll be distributed, but you can expect the feature film categories to be shared between Dreamworks' Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots.

One Category at a Time: Makeup

By the time it gets boiled down to three nominees, this race is usually a pretty easy one to call, but I'm having unspeakable difficulty in deciding upon a winner this year. It's essentially a two-horse race between extensive fantasy work on a successful, beloved, but decidedly familiar series, and superior but subtler work on a reviled film with a high profile acting nomination. But let's begin with the nominee bringing up the rear.

One Category at a Time: Visual Effects

After having the same five films listed in my predictions for months, I switched out Transformers at the last second for Pirates. As a result, I ended up with a lame 3/5 accuracy as not only did Transformers manage to stem the tide, but The Tree of Life was shut out of the race in favour of the unforeseeable Real Steel. It's very disappointing to see the effects branch opt for more glossy mo-cap CG as opposed to the awe-inspiring combo of organic effects and digital dinos, but it's all a moot point.

SAG winners

Stunt Ensemble: Harry Potter

That's all well and good, but why wasn't Mission: Impossible nominated?

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer,
Beginners

Hard to see how Plummer loses this on Oscar night, but the sudden appearance of Max von Sydow (in a Best Picture nominee, no less) has made me wary.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer,
The Help

Yep. Looks like the Oscar's hers. Nice speech too.

Well, damn. Only fifteen minutes in and two of the five awards I care about are done. Am I gonna have to wait an hour and a half until we hit another movie category?

Loved seeing Dick Van Dyke take the stage to introduce and narrate the tribute reel to Lifetime Achievement honouree Mary Tyler Moore. Less thrilled about listening to Mary prattle on about her showbiz name in her speech.

Actor: Jean Dujardin,
The Artist

Well well well, it looks like Harvey's been at it again. Did that pitch perfect Globes speech give Dujardin that extra push here? Where does this put us in terms of the Oscar conversation?

Actress: Viola Davis,
The Help

YES! I was so worried this was going to Meryl. But that acceptance speech. Wow. If that can't net her the Oscar I don't know what can.

Ensemble: The Help

Inarguably the best of the lot.

Well, I BOMBED my predictions (three for six if you include Stunt Ensemble, because why not?), but I'll confess that I was somewhat hedging my bets by predicting Meryl and The Artist; I just really wanted to see Viola and The Help win their respective categories, which they did, so yay!

Tonight marks the third consecutive televised wins for Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer. They are the smart Oscar bets, although I have an unsettling suspicion that Max von Sydow could sneak in the backdoor on Plummer. More on that later this week.

The Best Actress tiebreaker fell in favour of Viola Davis, and it was a huge win because it gave her another chance to move the room to tears with a staggering acceptance speech. Believe it or not, those can make a difference. It's PR gold that can tip the scales in your favour if you do it right, and in her two trips to the podium this season, Viola has NAILED it both times. I think the Oscar is her's to lose.

But what about Best Actor? I said that if someone was going to make a move on Clooney it would have to happen here, and it did. Clooney has the BFCA and the Drama Globe, Dujardin has the SAG and the Comedy Globe. It's worth noting that a comedic performance hasn't won the Best Actor Oscar since 1999 when Roberto Benigni ludicrously won for Life is Beautiful, but it's also worth noting that he also won the SAG and was backed by Weinstein (Mirimax, that is). I'm gonna have to think about this one.

My Awards nominations: Hair and Makeup

In this digital age it always does me good to see that this dying art is still kicking its legs. The best Hair and Makeup achievements of the year are:

Captain America: The First Avenger
(David White, Lisa Westcott):

Redskull is a creepy and iconic creation, but let's not forget all the detailing that goes into those WWII battle scars and period hairdos.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows 2
(Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin):

Okay, so not everybody was convinced by the epilogue aging, but that doesn't diminish the quality and quantity of the other fantastical character designs.

Green Lantern (Joel Harlow, Felicity Bowring):

Wonderful alien creations and Peter Saarsgard's pronounced forehead are appropriately cartoonish but also convincingly done.

The Iron Lady (Mark Coulier, Marese Langan):

Nuanced aging work takes us through Thatcher's glory days to her desiccated "golden years" with tangible authenticity.

Thor (Luisa Abel, Janice Alexander):

The frost giants are particularly elaborate designs, but let's not forget all that robust Asgaardian facial hair.

Just missed: Captain America, Harry Potter 8, Hugo, War Horse

My Awards nominations: Visual Effects

The effects sorcerers were hard at work this year, but aren't they always? Given that effects movies are the only ones studios feel any confidence in producing, there is naturally lots too choose from, but only five could crack my Visual Effects ballot:

Anonymous
(Marc Weigert, Volker Engel, Gerd Nefzer, Greg Strasz):

Here's something novel: A Roland Emmerich movie whose effects are subtle! The recreation of 15th century London is so seamless that in many shots you can't even tell it's an effect.


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
(Tim Burke, John Richardson, Ferran Domenech, Greg Powell):

As always, the wizarding universe is sensationally evoked by more of Tim Burke's marvelous effects, with extra shiny pyrotechnics for this final action-packed installment.


Rise of the Planet of the Apes
(Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Tony Lazarowich, Daniel Barrett):

The photorealistic motion capture magic of Weta Digital's cinematic sorcerers is completely convincing, giving more breadth to the performances and allowing us to fully sympathize with the CG apes.


Transformers: Dark of the Moon
(Scott Farrar, John Frazier, Scott Benza, Kenny Bates):

As can only be expected of the series, the story is imbecilic, the effects top notch. Bonus points for that uber cool wing-suit sequence. Stunts with minimal CG embellishment are totally the way to go!


The Tree of Life
(Dan Glass, Michael L. Fink, Brian Friedman, Tom Debenham):

The arresting non-CG depiction of the universe's cosmic origins are hypnotic and awe-inspiring. The subsequent evolution of life on earth is handled in beautifully naturalistic ways.


Just missed: Captain America, Hugo, MI4, Tintin

Bakeoff advances seven Makeup finalists

The makeup branch is the only one in the Academy that still employs the old fashioned bakeoff system to narrow its field to seven contenders before eventually deciding upon the final three (the visual effects has upped their shortlist to ten before nominating five). This branch is notorious for going their own way. The big eyebrow-raiser for me is that all four of this summer's super hero blockbusters (X-Men, Thor, Green Lantern, and Captain America, all of which sport nomination-worthy makeup) were left off the list. Seriously; What. Is. Up. With. That?

Also missing is the extensive aging work on J. Edgar. Pure speculation on my part, but I'm guessing the less-than-stellar work done on Armie Hammer proved a key stumbling block.

Sliding in is Harry Potter, which I'm beginning to think stands a chance at not only being nominated in this category for the first time, but maybe even winning as a last-chance tip of the hat to the franchise. It would be a nice bit of recognition for Nick Dudman, who's done more than his fair share of excellent work for the series.

Makeup finalists
Albert Nobbs
Anonymous
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady

VES nominees

Of the potential Oscar contenders, Harry Potter and Transformers lead the field with five nominations a piece, but the actual leader is Tintin with six, which was left of the Academy's shortlist. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is close behind with four.

There's a conspicuous absence of The Tree of Life, which I thought should have won the Supporting Visual Effects category by a country mile, but alas. I guess Hugo will win that one. Like I said when the Academy released there slate of ten finalists, Pirates feels like a very real spoiler threat, despite eking only one nod from the guild.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Feature
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Should win / Will win
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
Anonymous Should win
Hugo Will win
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Source Code
War Horse

Review - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

And that, as they say, is that. Ten years and some 7 billion galleons after The Philosopher's Stone first charmed Potterphiles the world over in 2001, J.K. Rowling's magical saga finally fades to black with Part 2 of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, which makes a fitting end to a beloved franchise. While I never felt as consistently invested in the films as I did the books, I can only tip my hat to the series as it takes its final bow, and to The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 in particular for leaving on a strong note. It strikes me as an appropriately representative cross-section of the whole; perhaps not as artistically intent as Alfonso Cuaron's Prisoner of Azkaban, not nearly as lethargic as Mike Newell's Goblet of Fire, but a balanced mixture of thrill and sentiment that makes it easy to understand why moviegoers were so keen to keep returning to this world.

A token summary of the plot seems unnecessary for a review of this film, as surely anyone who's interested in seeing it will have read the books years ago... at least you had better have, or you'll find yourself inescapably lost. Writer Steve Cloves has ceased making concessions for the casual viewer, omitting anything but essential information and necessitating that we fill in the blanks. Though his resulting screenplay is inevitably less detailed than Rowling's involved tome, it proves a necessary evil; one not exercised enough in The Deathly Hallows' first half, but effectively employed for this closing chapter. The payoff is clear: a refreshing 2-hour run time, making this the most efficiently told entry in the octalogy. In retrospect, the move to split The Deathly Hallows in twain worked out for the better, although I still cringe sceptically at the original motivations behind the decision.

Sunday Top Ten: John Williams scores

I've always been a sucker for the music John Williams. There's something about his melodies and orchestrations that just stick with me. I'm not alone, apparently. He was an Academy favourite for decades, amassing 45 nominations in 38 years. Granted, he hasn't been nominated since 2006, a long layoff by his standards, but he could be back with one or two Best Original Score nominations this year courtesy of Spielberg's Tin Tin and War Horse.

After hearing Michael Giacchino's apt impersonation of the composer in Super 8 two weeks ago, I felt compelled to revisit the his works and dedicate this week's top ten list to his finest film scores.

One Category at a Time: Best Visual Effects

The extra two slots added to the Best Visual Effects field last year have given us prognosticators more degrees of freedom to work with, and give new hope to some films that probably wouldn't be in the conversation otherwise.

Films like Hereafter, which was by no means a big effects film, but used its effects wisely in a solid supporting role and earned a nomination for it. Perhaps a film that can emulate that this year is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which apparently will be sporting dinosaurs in certain sequences and perhaps other shots that may require interesting effects work. Consider this a reckless wild card pick.

The Harry Potter franchise's final installment lands this summer. Having been nominated for two previous Potter films, including last year's The Deathly Hallows: Part 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect branch give Tim Burke and company one final kick at the can. Maybe the Academy will feel inclined to let them win as a way of honouring the series?

There's always one or two huge summer blockbusters that make it in here, and this summer is at no shortage of effects-heavy potential blockbusters. But many of them are comic book adaptations, which only occasionally hit with the Academy. They tend to be kinder to original material, and that's where I give J.J. Abrams' effects team for Super 8 (who've already proven themselves on Star Trek) an edge over the competition.

But sequels can sometimes score here if their predecessors did, in which case Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides may be sitting pretty. All three previous Pirates films have been nominated here, even as the critics have become progressively less kind to them. The extra two slots are a benefit for films that might otherwise be sunk by bad reviews.

Finally, Joe Letteri et. al. at Weta Digital, who have worked such wonders on the Lord of the Rings trilogy and most recently Avatar, are heading Steven Spielberg's take on Tintin. But will the effects branch go for a completely motion-captured film? Avatar had enough live-action footage to convince the Academy that its effects were effects, but they've never given a second glance to any of Robert Zemekis' motion-capture endeavours. Might they consider Tintin just a glorified animated film?

Predicted five:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
The Tree of Life

Also consider: Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, Green Lantern, Hugo Cabret, Transformers 3, X-Men: First Class, Thor.

One Category at a Time: Best Art Direction

There are lots of past Oscar winners and nominees in the mix this year. Among them are Martin Scorsese's frequent production designer Dante Ferreti and set dresser Franscesca Lo Shiavo (winners for The Aviator and Sweeney Todd). With Scorsese's Hugo Cabret, they'll recreate 1930's Paris. With Rob Richardson behind the camera, you know the sets are gonna get the best possible presentation.

Will this finally be the year the Academy awards Stuart Craig for the Harry Potter series? Having been nominated for three of the seven films thus far, including last year's installment, many are suggesting that AMPAS may want to tip their hat to the franchise with a win, and this upcoming year is their last chance to do it, and no category would be more appropriate than Art Direction.

Jack Fisk and Jim Erickson (nominated for There Will Be Blood) are heading the production design and set decoration of Water for Elephants, based on the bestseller set on a Depression era traveling circus. The period detail of 1930s America and the sparkly glitz of the Greatest Show on Earth might prove a winning combination with the art directors branch.

Finally, Mark Ricker and Rena DeAngelo will produce the look and feel of 1960s small-town Mississippi in The Help. DeAngelo's Emmy-winning work on Mad Men proves she has the detail of the period down pat, and if it ends up a popular film, design nominations could fall into place.

War films don't intuitively come to mind when one thinks about art direction, but it requires just as much work and creativity. Rick Carter (who won two years ago for Avatar) is designing the sets for Steven Spielberg's War Horse. If the movie turns out to be a big hit with the Academy, a nomination here would not surprise me.

Predicted five:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Help
Hugo Cabret
War Horse
Water for Elephants

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, Captain America, The Conspirator, A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Pirates 4, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Tree of Life.

One Category at a Time: Makeup

I gotta hand it to the makeup branch; they don't let anyone tell them what to do! They've always been concerned purely with the work presented in the film and not at all with the quality of the film itself, and that's really the way it should be. But it does throw a kink into the Oscar-predictor's plans, especially in a year like this when all three nominees are only nominated for that one Makeup category.

Barney's version had some pretty solid aging work on display, progressing Paul Giamatti's character over the course of several decades. But how many people have seen the film? How many people liked it?

The work done on Peter Weir's The Way Back (by the same Oscar-nominated team of Master and Commander) is a great inclusion here. The realization of sunburns, swollen feet, and general dishevelment is detailed and incredibly realistic. Again: how many people have seen it?

Then there's The Wolfman, with frankly awesome transformative magic spun by makeup god Rick Baker. People seem to forget that there's a whole lot more than just a hairy Benicio del Toro in this movie, but all manner of illnesses and wound effects that required just as much care and artfulness. Again: how many people have seen the film? How many even remember it? How many want to?

Since we can't rely on any perceived popularity to point us to the winner, we have to fall back on the old most-equals-best philosophy the Academy employs in the craft categories.

Will win: The Wolfman
Runner-up: Barney's Version

Should win: The Wolfman
Should have been nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

One Category at a Time: Art Direction

As far as I see it, the category (and by association, Costume Design) come down to two films: The King's Speech and Alice in Wonderland.

One the one hand, Oscar voters often go for the most noticeable production design, as was certainly the case last with Avatar, in which case you might give an edge to Alice in Wonderland. On the other, the Academy really likes The King's Speech, and a prestige period drama is hard for voters to turn down. Still, Alice just seems like a real threat in this category where voters sometimes mistake ''most'' for ''best''. I think I'll stick with the Best Picture winner on this one, for the production design really is quite lovely and thematically appropriate, but I'll hang myself it ends up being Tim Burton's movie. Not because I'll have guessed wrong, but because that movie is seriously hideous.

Sad to say, Guy Dyas' healthy run with various critics groups including the BFCA will not avail him with AMPAS. I think his work on Inception is the most deserving, but contemporary films never win this category, and the design really is more of a contemporary entry than a fantasy outing.

Also, I wonder if next year the Academy might give this award to Deathly Hallows Part 2. This is one category where the Harry Potter series has been more than adequately recognized, and if the franchise is going to win something, it might be here. Stay tuned 'til 2012.

Congrats also to Jess Gonchar for his first nomination with True Grit. He hasn't a hope in hell of winning, due to all those exteriors. But that won't cheapen the nomination, which is richly deserved.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: The Illusionist

VES winners

As we might have expected, Inception lead the way, winning all four of its nominations. Close behind was How to Train Your Dragon which swept the three animation categories. It's too bad they couldn't spread the love around to Legend of the Guardians' astonishing effects animation, but I suppose that was a long shot.

Oscar nominees Hereafter and Harry Potter each scooped a single consolatory win.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual-Effects Driven Feature Motion Picture
Inception

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
Hereafter

Outstanding Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon

Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I – Dobby

Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon – Toothless

Outstanding Effects Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon

Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
Inception – Paris Dreamscape

Outstanding Models & Miniatures in a Feature Motion Picture
Inception – Hospital Fortress Destruction

Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture
Inception

Visionary Award
Christopher Nolan

One Category at a Time: Visual Effects

I must profess, I'm not sure why the Academy chose this year of all years to finally expand the number of nominees in this category to five. It hasn't been a particularly outstanding year for effects work, and it shows with a slate of mostly mediocre nominees.

I've long since been on the record for thinking the effects of Alice in Wonderland are glaring and poorly animated, but I can't begrudge Ken Ralston & co. for the sheer amount of work they did. Practically every shot is an effects shot. Everything is computerized. Computerized to death if you ask me. And yet it's still a dark horse candidate in this field. Remember that "most" visual effects can sometimes beat "best" visual effects.

Adding to the population of nominees that make me say "m'eh" are Iron Man 2, Harry Potter, and Hereafter, the latter of which seems to have made it in for that tsunami sequence alone. Decent work, but nothing particularly special. It's a crime that these got in over the much more stunning and unique effects of TRON Legacy and Scott Pilgrim vs the World.

Incpetion, on the other hand, is the only movie this year whose effects made me go "whoa". Those brilliant hotel corridor scenes are justly lauded, but let's not forget the detailed work done by the digital effects artists, or the meticulous pyrotechnic work. It has four VES nominations under its belt (winners announced tomorrow) and is also the only Best Picture nominee in the field. The Oscar is clearly it's to lose.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Scott Pilgrim vs the World