Oscar autopsy

Another year over. And appropriately enough to the nature of the season, it ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. There were few surprises to be had, as for the second straight year I managed to correctly predict 18 of 24 winners, including all eight major categories.

The closest thing to a surprise was Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross collecting trophies for what might be the most atypical Oscar-winning score ever. I was not expecting it to win, but apparently that's one category where I should have given the voting membership the benefit of the doubt. Well done.

Unfortunately, there was little satisfaction to be had in the rest. The night's biggest disappointment came early, in cinematography god Roger Deakins failing to win an Oscar for the ninth time. Yo, Academy, do you not think he's due or something? What has he done to you to make you treat him this way? Disgusting. But to be fair, Wally Pfister is a worthy alternative. He's been putting out consistently astonishing work with Christopher Nolan for the better part of the decade now, and this win for his fourth consecutive nomination is a fitting way to applaud one of the best director/DP collaborations working today.

Other disappointment, albeit a less surprising one, came in the form of Tim Burton's hideous Alice in Wonderland winning both design categories over infinitely more deserving work. I might have known. Let this be a lesson: always always always predict for "most" to trump "best" when the Academy chooses winners here.

True Grit joins the ranks of Gangs of New York, The Turning Point, and The Color Purple as one of the biggest Oscar losers of all time, going 0 for 10. Guess the Academy didn't love it that much after all.

The King's Speech seemed to underwhelm as well, winning only four of its twelve nominations (all of them major categories though). Other multiple winners include The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Inception, the aforementioned Alice, and The Fighter, nailing down acting awards for Christian Bale and that nutty Melissa Leo, who proceeded to use the F-word on live TV. Some people are endeared to her antics and crazy behaviour, but I have to confess that I've never liked her, and her speech reeked of the same arrogance as have all her speeches this season.

The show itself left something to be desired. It didn't stink on the level of last year's fiasco, but it was pretty boring. Many reviews are pointing a finger (a bit harshly I think) at James Franco, who was either feigning reluctance to be there in a failed attempt at accenting Anne Hathaway's vibrant presence, or was actually reluctant to be there and doing a bad job at hiding it. I don't blame him for the show's overall lack of personality, but he certainly wasn't helping matters.

And that's really all there is I feel merited my commentary. All in all, not much of a finale to the season. Upsetting. But at the end of the day, some very talented artists got richly deserved recognition for their invaluable contributions to the medium we love so much, and I can never complain about that. Congrats to all the winners. I'm gonna keep a low profile in the coming months. I'll chime in here or there as we continue to experience the fallout this week, but mostly, I'll be busy looking into what 2011 has to offer us in the way of movie-going.

Thanks for reading! Enjoy your Oscar off-season.

Favourite shots from the Cinematography nominees

Some people have let me know how disappointed they were that I didn't make time in my analysis of Best Cinematography this year to highlight my favourite shots from each of the nominees as I did last year. I didn't really think anyone cared about it, but I've had requests, so I'll gladly oblige.

But first, I have to refer you to Kris Tapley's annual top ten list for the best moving images of the year; an absolute treat I look forward to reading and linking to every Oscar season.

Like last year, I'm limiting my list of shots to the five nominees for Best Cinematography, simply because I haven't the time to go sifting through all the year's movies again to find my favourites overall. Anyway, see them after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Picture

A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.

Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:

127 Hours: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
Black Swan: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Inception: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Kids Are All Right: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Toy Story 3: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
True Grit: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Winter's Bone: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)

And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.

The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.


The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.

True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).

You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:

-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone

Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole

One Category at a Time: Director

Flip a coin folks. Much like Film Editing, here's another category that can go either the way of The Social Network of The King's Speech.

It's a funny thing, the mechanistics of the awards race. All through December it became apparent that David Fincher was the man to beat for Best Director, having snagged two dozen critics awards (including the Critics' Choice) and the Golden Globe. Even when The King's Speech stole the PGA and accrued twelve Oscar nominations, thus becoming the Best Picture frontrunner, Best Director was still David Fincher's to lose... until the DGA and its massive voting membership (most of whom work in television) handed their top honour to Tom Hooper. He became the new leader of the pack, but then his fellow countrymen in BAFTA tipped the hat in Fincher's direction again, making this once more, a tight two-horse race.

To predict a split, or not predict a split?

When in doubt, go with the Best Picture winner. And go with it I shall.

Naturally, the nominee who deserves it the most - Darren Aronofsky for his dazzling execution of Black Swan - has the least shot of winning. Figures.

As for the Coens and David O. Russell, I'm happy for them. Honest. But I can't pretend like they belong here over the likes of Christopher Nolan. True Grit was a helluva good popcorn movie, but had so little personality outside of the performances. And The Fighter is simply overrated. Not that I blame Russell so much for its garbled structure and arrhythmia, but I still don't really consider it a great achievement in directing.

Will win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Runner-up: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

This is just one of many tight races that will be decided on Oscar night. The King's Speech and The Social Network are neck-in-neck. As I've stated before, the cause for uncertainty stems from the two conflicting schools of thought on how the general Academy votes on these categories that they might not understand; do they vote for the movie they liked better, or for the movie with the more noticeable craft? There are probably plenty of voters who fall into either camp, but as to which camp is more populated is anybody's guess.

At least it comes down the two most deserving nominees, in my opinion. Tariq Anwar does a terrific job at punctuating the actors' performances with shrewd shot selection for The King's Speech, and Baxter and Wall give The Social Network a flow that can't be topped. Either of them would make a fine winner in lieu of Lee Smith, who suffered the most egregious snub of the year when the editors branch gave Inception the kick.
The only clue I can look to for guidance (or misguidance as the case may be) is the ACE Eddie, which has gone to the eventual Oscar winner for the last nine consecutive years, almost always in the Drama category. The Social Network took that this year, so I'm gonna put my faith in the trend.

As for the also-rans, there's some decent work on display, most notably Andrew Weisblum's cutting of Black Swan. I don't relish the task of trying to moderate and control Aronofsky's off-the-wall visuals. The boxing sequences in The Fighter were well put together by Pamela Martin, and John Harris certainly amped up the intensity in 127 Hours (even if I'm not exactly on board with that directorial decision).

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inception

MPSE winners!

This is a pretty good slate. Inception took home two deserved trophies for Richard King's terrific sound design and for the outstanding integration of Hans Zimmer's music. It's the one with the Oscar heat in this category, but there's still a chance True Grit could upset.

The Social Network, meanwhile, impressed the organization with its tricky tidying-up of Aaron Sorkin's dizzying dialogue. Fine choice, but I may have liked to see TRON Legacy take that category.

Finally, I'm thrilled to see Randy Thom get his due for How to Train Your Dragon, the best sound editing of the year sadly overlooked by Oscar.

Best Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Film: The Social Network
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Music, Dialogue and ADR in a Animated Feature Film: How to Train Your Dragon Sweet!
Best Music Editing in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Music Editing in a Musical Feature: Country Strong
Best Sound Editing in a Documentary: Rush: Beyond the Lighted Stage
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in a Foreign Feature: Micmacs

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

This is gonna be the most nerve-wracking category of the night for me. Usually, I try not to emotionally invest myself in anything related to Oscar... but I wanna see Roger Deakins win for once, dammit! The man has shot some of my all-time favourite movies, and some of the most memorable images I've ever seen committed to film. If I have to watch him lose for the eighth time I'm gonna stick my head in an oven... and pump that oven full of chlorine gas... and then launch it into the sun.

What's worse is I'm actually predicting him to win, so if he doesn't there's the added sting of having guessed the category wrong. It's quite possible I will be wrong as well. You could make a strong case for any of the nominees winning.

Well, okay, maybe not so much The Social Network. Not that I don't admire Jeff Cronenweth's fine work, but it just doesn't say ''Oscar winner'' to me. But the other four nominees are all plausible victors.

Black Swan has the NY and LA film critics prizes under its tutu, but what it really has going for it is the sheer maddening brilliance of Lebatique and Aronofsky's vision.

Inception has the Critics' Choice and ASC going for it, plus that exhilarated feeling it leaves audiences with as they walk out of the theatre. Wally Pfister had better win an Oscar someday.

The King's Speech has the Best Picture frontrunner factor in it favour, and a potential sweep that threatens to rob dozens of deserving craftspeople of their rightful Oscars. Not that Danny Cohen's framing isn't effective. It's just not the best of the year.

Finally, True Grit has the BAFTA in hand and is the most traditionally beautiful of the five; postcard-perfect vistas and gorgeous lighting (Deakins' specialty, don'tchya know), which may be all it needs to eke out a win. The fact that it's clearly a well liked movie helps.

Damn well better win: True Grit
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island

One Category at a time: Original Score

Not sure how to feel about this category. On the one hand, I could rejoice that my three favourite scores of the year all managed nominations from this often-questionable branch. On the other hand, I could despair that all of them are likely to lose to a far inferior score. On the other hand, the composer of said score should have won two years ago, and it'd be nice to see him win the Oscar he should already have. On the other hand, it'd be annoying to see him win his Oscar for a score that doesn't even come close to the inventiveness and memorability of his previous work, let alone his fellow nominees this year. What's a guy to do?

That score which is causing me so much grief is Alexandre Desplat's for The King's Speech. It looks like the one that's going to win to me, but deep down, it just doesn't sound right, does it?

What Hans Zimmer did on Inception is a brilliant accomplishment in building mood and intensity. John Powell's music, enjoyable and beautiful, makes How to Train Your Dragon soar. The identity Reznor and Ross infused into The Social Network is highly unique; a completely successful defiance of convention that works without intruding. They're all the epitome of effective and unforgettable music.

And then there's The King's Speech...

...and I struggle to find something to say. Not to sully Desplat's elegant work with petty quibbles, but I get the feeling that (assuming he wins) this'll be one of those Oscar wins that people will look back on 50 years from now, scrunch their noses and say, "Really?"

Could Inception upset? They may not like the movie enough. How to Train Your Dragon? Not a Best Picture nominee. The Social Network? Too atypical.

Oh yeah, A.R. Rahman (who robbed Desplat of the Oscar he should have won two years ago) is also nominated, but I don't think 127 Hours has enough support to factor into the equation here.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Inception

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy

Wally Pfister wins ASC

Can he win the Oscar? Somehow I doubt it. Still holding out hope for Deakins.

King's Speech woos BAFTA

Surprise, surprise. Seven BAFTAs seems just about what I would have thought for The King's Speech, although I wasn't quite expecting it to take three of the four acting prizes. Helena Bonham Carter winning Best Supporting Actress is only semi-surprising, given frontrunner Melissa Leo's lack of a nomination, but Geoffrey Rush upsetting Christian Bale... let's just hope this doesn't materialize with the Academy.

What most surprises me is that it only took home one craft award (for Original Score). Most people are preparing themselves for an Oscar sweep of sorts, but BAFTA has done a nice job spreading the wealth around. Some choices are dubious, like two awards for Alice in Wonderland (including Costume Design, its biggest Oscar opportunity), but others are inspired, like the Film Editing win for The Social Network. And despite all odds, Inception keeps picking up those richly deserved but hardly expected citations for its year-best Production Design. Might there be hope for Oscar after all?

Black Swan's impressive nomination tally of 12 yielded only a single win for Natalie Portman, but that should hopefully be enough to help her fend off a late surge from Annette Bening.

And what of David Fincher's win? Is he strong enough to overcome Tom Hooper?

Obviously The King's Speech is still going to win Best Picture, but The King's Sweep is looking a bit vulnerable.

Best Film – The King’s Speech
Best Director – The Social Network – David Fincher
Best Leading Actress – Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Best Leading Actor – Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress – Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actor – Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Best Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech – David Seidler
Outstanding British Film – The King’s Speech
Outstanding British Debut – Four Lions – Chris Morris
Best Cinematography – True Grit – Roger Deakins
Best Editing – The Social Network – Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
Best Original Music – The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat
Best Production Design – Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood
Best Sound – Inception – Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick
Best Special Visual Effects – Inception – Corbould, Franklin, Lockley, Bebb
Best Make Up & Hair – Alice in Wonderland – Valli O’Reilly, Paul Gooch
Best Short Film – Until the River Runs Red – Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis
Best Short Animation – The Eagleman Stag – Michael Please
Best Film Not in the English Language – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Animated Film – Toy Story 3
Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award – Tom Hardy

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

This will probably the second year in a row that the Oscar winner here was not eligible for the WGA. (Silly me. Totally thought Basterds won WGA last year. Doi!)
While last year's showdown between Inglorious Basterds and eventual Oscar winner The Hurt Locker was cause for legitimate indecision before the outcome, this year's perceived showdown between WGA winner Inception and Best Picture juggernaut The King's Speech is probably not much of a fight.

You can't help but be happy for David Seidler. Having long since overcome his own stammer, it's clear his attachment to the story he tells is a passionate and personal one. In spite of what more deserving nominees there are, his is still a droll and sincere script. You can't begrudge him his success.

At least Christopher Nolan can take his WGA victory as consolation. The mind-fucking originality of Inception lingers and improves with age, while also delivering an understated emotional cadence. It's great to see him recognized for this extraordinary filmmaking achievement.

It's highly unfortunate that Mike Leigh and Lisa Cholodenko are going unrewarded. The Kids Are All Right is the finest original screenplay of the year; genuinely emotional and emotionally genuine, tackling the complexity of human relationships with wit and insight. Though much different in tone, the devastating honesty of Another Year leaves an impression no less unshakable.

I could have done without The Fighter in this category, which is gradually becoming my most overrated film of the year, but you knew it would show up here. People like the movie, and I have to hand it to the writers for hammering a relatively messy collection of events into something relatively cohesive.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: The Kids Are All Right

Should win: The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Toy Story 3

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

In the years I've been doing this I don't believe I've ever guessed both Sound categories correctly (though I've come awfully close). This year has me similarly unsure of myself, as both categories could come down to either of two movies.

The obvious choice in this category, Inception, may actually be less safe than assumed. There's no denying the sophistication of the mix, and the sheer volume of it is all it'll need to convince some voters, but I get the nagging feeling that it's vulnerable to an upset (in both categories) by True Grit. The mixing team (who, in my opinion, should have won this category for No Country for Old Men three years ago) has done a terrific job that's nuanced but noticeable enough to draw votes away from Inception. Love for the film may push it across the finish line here. I'm not ballsy enough to predict it, but I smell a mini-upset in the works.

If it ends up being either The Social Network or The King's Speech, then there's your Best Picture sweeper right there. But those mixes are probably too subtle to register with the Academy at large.

Congrats to Greg P. Russell on his 14th career nomination for Salt. Shame that he's destined to lose yet again. Step up, Academy! Give the man his Oscar. And while you're at it, give one to Kevin O'Connell as well.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Black Swan

ADG winners

Period: The King's Speech
Fantasy: Inception
Contemporary: Black Swan

Great to see Inception (the best production design of the year as far as I'm concerned) win out over Alice in Wonderland (the most overrated production design of the year as far as I'm concerned) in the Fantasy category.

The King's Speech expectedly won the Period category for its fine set dressing, likely on its way to Oscar's podium. Black Swan, though ignored by the Academy's art directors branch, took a well deserved gong for Contemporary design.

Congrats to the winners. It's a very fine slate.

WGA winners

Adapted: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Original: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Documentary: Charles Ferguson, Inside Job

GREAT trio of winners. Even if I might have preferred to see The Kids Are All Right bring a prize to Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, it's great to see Christopher Nolan receive his due for one of the most impressive filmmaking accomplishments of the year.

Aaron Sorkin continues to clean up, deservedly so, and Charles Ferguson snatched up a major award for his excellent breakdowns and effective explanations in Inside Job.

One Category at a Time: Sound Editing

What to do, what to do? It's been many a year since I guessed both Sound categories correctly. The unprecedented split between Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight in 2009 lead me to believe that it might happen again last year, only to end up being another two-for-one year with The Hurt Locker taking both Sound prizes away from Avatar. Methinks the split was just a flash in the pan. To have one film win both categories is the norm.

To that end, it didn't take much to convince me that Inception is the most typical winner in both, but especially Sound Editing. And it's a worthy winner. Richard King's distortion of sound for deepening dream levels is a nifty aural cue for the benefit of the audience. He also achieves bombastic full-bodied sounds by mixing together multiple recordings of the same sound from varying distances. It's terrific work that'll likely bring him his third Oscar.

Unfortunately, it comes at the expense of Gwen Whittle, who should have won last year for Avatar, and should also be winning this year for TRON Legacy. But there's nothing the poor woman can do. The sad fact of the matter is that the movie she's representing is bad, even though her work in it is exemplary. She'll win some day (I hope).

The possible spoiler is True Grit. The movie is quite loved and sound plays a big part, but if it were to steal one of Inception's Sound trophies it would probably be in Mixing.

The other two are just happy to be there, despite the fact that they both boast quality work. Toy Story 3 isn't sound-driven enough, and Unstoppable flew too low under the radar.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: TRON Legacy
Should have been nominated: How to Train Your Dragon

One Category at a Time: Art Direction

As far as I see it, the category (and by association, Costume Design) come down to two films: The King's Speech and Alice in Wonderland.

One the one hand, Oscar voters often go for the most noticeable production design, as was certainly the case last with Avatar, in which case you might give an edge to Alice in Wonderland. On the other, the Academy really likes The King's Speech, and a prestige period drama is hard for voters to turn down. Still, Alice just seems like a real threat in this category where voters sometimes mistake ''most'' for ''best''. I think I'll stick with the Best Picture winner on this one, for the production design really is quite lovely and thematically appropriate, but I'll hang myself it ends up being Tim Burton's movie. Not because I'll have guessed wrong, but because that movie is seriously hideous.

Sad to say, Guy Dyas' healthy run with various critics groups including the BFCA will not avail him with AMPAS. I think his work on Inception is the most deserving, but contemporary films never win this category, and the design really is more of a contemporary entry than a fantasy outing.

Also, I wonder if next year the Academy might give this award to Deathly Hallows Part 2. This is one category where the Harry Potter series has been more than adequately recognized, and if the franchise is going to win something, it might be here. Stay tuned 'til 2012.

Congrats also to Jess Gonchar for his first nomination with True Grit. He hasn't a hope in hell of winning, due to all those exteriors. But that won't cheapen the nomination, which is richly deserved.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: The Illusionist

VES winners

As we might have expected, Inception lead the way, winning all four of its nominations. Close behind was How to Train Your Dragon which swept the three animation categories. It's too bad they couldn't spread the love around to Legend of the Guardians' astonishing effects animation, but I suppose that was a long shot.

Oscar nominees Hereafter and Harry Potter each scooped a single consolatory win.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual-Effects Driven Feature Motion Picture
Inception

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
Hereafter

Outstanding Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon

Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I – Dobby

Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon – Toothless

Outstanding Effects Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
How to Train Your Dragon

Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
Inception – Paris Dreamscape

Outstanding Models & Miniatures in a Feature Motion Picture
Inception – Hospital Fortress Destruction

Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture
Inception

Visionary Award
Christopher Nolan

One Category at a Time: Visual Effects

I must profess, I'm not sure why the Academy chose this year of all years to finally expand the number of nominees in this category to five. It hasn't been a particularly outstanding year for effects work, and it shows with a slate of mostly mediocre nominees.

I've long since been on the record for thinking the effects of Alice in Wonderland are glaring and poorly animated, but I can't begrudge Ken Ralston & co. for the sheer amount of work they did. Practically every shot is an effects shot. Everything is computerized. Computerized to death if you ask me. And yet it's still a dark horse candidate in this field. Remember that "most" visual effects can sometimes beat "best" visual effects.

Adding to the population of nominees that make me say "m'eh" are Iron Man 2, Harry Potter, and Hereafter, the latter of which seems to have made it in for that tsunami sequence alone. Decent work, but nothing particularly special. It's a crime that these got in over the much more stunning and unique effects of TRON Legacy and Scott Pilgrim vs the World.

Incpetion, on the other hand, is the only movie this year whose effects made me go "whoa". Those brilliant hotel corridor scenes are justly lauded, but let's not forget the detailed work done by the digital effects artists, or the meticulous pyrotechnic work. It has four VES nominations under its belt (winners announced tomorrow) and is also the only Best Picture nominee in the field. The Oscar is clearly it's to lose.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Scott Pilgrim vs the World

SAG winners

Well, went a perfect 6/6 with my predictions, although that's hardly saying much given the incredibly predictable nature of the nominees this year... or any year, for that matter.

So obviously The King's Speech is the one to beat for Oscar's top honours, but the question is to what extent will it sweep? How many of its overly generous six craft nominations can it capitalize on? Art Direction, Costume Design, Score... probably. But there's such more deserving work to choose from in those categories. How many people honestly think Desplat's work is better than Zimmer's or Powell's or Reznor & Ross'? Will they actually go for Beaven's subtle threads over Atwood's "look-at-me" wardrobe? Is this just my own personal bias clouding my judgment? Or are there still cases to be made for the other nominees?

Too many questions. I hate all this uncertainty!

Anyway, the SAG winners, not that you need me to remind you.

Best Ensemble: The King's Speech Best Pic is a done deal.

Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech All hail the King.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan All hail the Swan Queen.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale , The Fighter Moving right along...

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter I'd say the Oscar is pretty safe now.

Best Stunt Ensemble: Inception Predictable, but well deserved.

My 2010 Award winners!

You've seen the nominees. Time to see my winners:

Best Picture:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin, David Fincher)


Best Director:
DARREN ARONOFSKY, BLACK SWAN


Best Actor:
JESSE EISENBERG, THE SOCIAL NETWORK


Best Actress:
KATIE JARVIS, FISH TANK


Best Supporting Actor:
ED HARRIS, THE WAY BACK


Best Supporting Actress:
LESLEY MANVILLE, ANOTHER YEAR


Best Acting Ensemble:
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Laura Rosenthal)


Best Original Screenplay:
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg)


Best Adapted Screenplay:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Aaron Sorkin)


Best Cinematography:
BLACK SWAN (Matthew Lebatique)


Best Film Editing:
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP (Tom Fulford, Chris King)


Best Original Score:
INCEPTION (Hans Zimmer)


Best Original Song:
“SHINE” from WAITING FOR SUPERMAN (John Legend)


Best Production Design, Set Decoration, and Art Direction:
INCEPTION (Guy Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas Mowat, Brad Ricker)


Best Costume Design:
GET LOW (Julie Weiss)


Best Sound Mixing:
BLACK SWAN (Ken Ishii, Craig Henighan, Dominick Tavella)


Best Sound Editing:
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (Al Nelson, Randy Thom, Jonathan Null)


Best Visual Effects:
INCEPTION (Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb)


Best Makeup and Hair:
THE WOLFMAN (Rick Baker, Lisa Westcott)


Best Animated Feature:
TOY STORY 3 (Lee Unkrich)


Best Foreign Film:
THE ILLUSIONIST (Sylvain Chomet)


Best Documentary:
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP (Banksy)


That makes three wins apiece for The Social Network, Black Swan, Inception, and two wins apiece for The Kids Are All Right and Exit Through the Gift Shop.