One Category at a Time: Visual Effects

After having the same five films listed in my predictions for months, I switched out Transformers at the last second for Pirates. As a result, I ended up with a lame 3/5 accuracy as not only did Transformers manage to stem the tide, but The Tree of Life was shut out of the race in favour of the unforeseeable Real Steel. It's very disappointing to see the effects branch opt for more glossy mo-cap CG as opposed to the awe-inspiring combo of organic effects and digital dinos, but it's all a moot point.

Scoring a third Visual Effects nod for the franchise, there's a chance Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 could ride a last-minute wave of sentiment to a win here. It would be a nice culminating honour for Tim Burke & co., whose effects work has been steadily improving on the series right up to last summer's pyro-tastic thrill ride. It's a legitimate dark horse.

However, by virtue of its Best Picture heat, I believe Hugo is stronger than the boy wizard in this category. A nice mix of models, matte paintings, and virtual camera work all combine to embellish the gorgeous environments. The train wreck scene in particular is a wonderfully executed sequence. That said, I wonder if this might be an area where the film's likability might not be enough to topple the frontrunner.

The most outside possibility is probably Real Steel, whose glorified Rock'em Sock'em Robots were apparently more impressive to the effects branch than the creation of the friggin' universe. Alright, time to put that complaint to bed. The mechanical boxers do look okay, but given their motion-captured fight choreography, they don't convincingly move like robots. Besides, how many have seen the film?

Rise of the Planet of the Apes, the pleasant surprise of the summer, has been the obvious choice for this prize since it opened in August, reinforcing Weta's dominance in their field. They took their motion-capture to the next level by having the suited-up actors performing on set, and with help from a special performance from Andy Serkis, it should be enough to take home the gold.

If the Academy was in the business of awarding the quality of the effects work itself, then Transformers: Dark of the Moon might be in better position to upset, but after the first installment's embarrassing loss to The Golden Compass four years ago, it became clear they simply won't vote for a movie they hate. I see no reason why they would suddenly acknowledge it now.

Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-up: Hugo

Should win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should've been nominated: The Tree of Life