SAG Winners

The SAG Awards added their say to the season last night, as I'm sure you saw.
I didn't so much watch the show as listen to it from the discomfort of my bathroom, while an underdone chicken & rice dish from Korean Grill House pulled a U-turn in my digestive tract.

Most of the guild's decisions require little commentary, more or less confirming front-runner status for Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis and Emma Stone.

It wasn't until the final two film categories of the night we got some fat to chew. While I wouldn't have called the wins for Denzel Washington and the cast of Hidden Figures full shockers, they do add enough of a wrinkle to keep things interesting, or at least raise some questions:

ACE Eddie Winners, and PGA/SAG Preview

To the surprise of precisely no one, La La Land won the ACE Eddie Award last night for Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy). Tom Cross is likely en route to his second Oscar in three years.

The Dramatic Feature category was a bit more competitive, but prevailing pundit logic of Joe Walker's editorial of Arrival winning out proved to be correct. Can't argue with either of these winners. For me, they're easily the top two editing achievements of the year, with everything else eating their dust.

SAG Nominees

The Screen Actors Guild is the first industry group out of the gate. As usual, their lists are heavy on Oscar favourites, but the nominating committee is small and random enough to throw in a surprise or two (Welcome to the Oscar race, Emily Blunt and Captain Fantastic?).

Conspicuously missing from their coveted Best Ensemble category is presumed Best Picture frontrunner La La Land. No film has won the Academy's top honour without a SAG Ensemble nod since Braveheart in the SAG Awards' inaugural year. Worth keeping an eye on.

Anyway, here are the nominees their six movie categories:

BEST ENSEMBLE
Captain Fantastic
Fences
Hidden Figures
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Captain Fantastic's inclusion hearkens back to the days when we would regularly get left field inclusions (like Bobby and The Station Agent) with no chance at Best Picture recognition. Now the real question: Does this actually sink La La Land's Best Picture aspirations, or it simply seen as a duet as opposed to an ensemble achievement?

ACE winners and SAG Predix [UPDATE: Winners]

It's a busy weekend of guild activity. The American Cinema Editors handed out hardware last night to all the usual suspects: Amy and Inside Out received their due in the ghettoized doc and animation categories (but seriously, the editing in those two are good enough to be up for the Oscar), while the current fruntrunners for the Academy's editing prize, The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road, got to split the top honours due to comedy/drama distinctions. I'm leaning the way of The Big Short coming out on top in the end, but a BAFTA win for Mad Max may yet give me hope.

Both of those are also in the hunt for awards from the Screen Actors Guild tonight. Mad Max is sure to take the prize for Best Stunt Ensemble, but The Big Short has its eyes set on the more significant Best Ensemble category. If Spotlight is going to make a push back in the latter half of phase two, it must start here. If it loses, however, then it truly is a runaway train.

Three of the four individual acting categories feel locked into place, but for Best Supporting Actor due to the absence of presumed frontrunner Sylvester Stallone. If Mark Rylance or Christian Bale (the only SAG contenders nominated for the Oscar) win, then I think this is still a race to the finish.

My guesses:
Best Stunt Ensemble: Mad Max [WINNER: Mad Max] Because d'uh.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale [WINNER: Idris Elba] So this ends up not affecting the Oscar race for the moment. Only the forthcoming BAFTA ceremony can shed any light on who Sly's greatest challenger really is.
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander [WINNER: Alicia Vikander] Category fraud lives.
Best Leading Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio [WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio] Cannot be stopped.
Best Leading Actress: Brie Larson [WINNER: Brie Larson] But will the Brits prefer her to Irish darling Saoirse Ronan?
Best Ensemble: The Big Short [WINNER: Spotlight] Thank God! This is enough to at least keep the Best Picture race interesting for another week. And even if this proves to be the only major prize that Spotlight claims over The Big Short, it's certainly the most satisfying and deserved prize to win.

SAG nominations scattered amongst the pretenders

The first big guild announcement of the season dropped this morning, but when all is said and done, it may not have been such an impactful announcement.

SAG's attention was splintered all over the place, and seems especially out of sync with pundit logic this season. Aggressively campaigned films like Trumbo and The Big Short performed well, but could both conceivably be shut out the Oscars. Some categories could even have as little as an 0/5 overlap with the eventual Oscar slate (especially that Supporting Actor category). For the time being, it keeps any frontrunners a happy mystery. Check out the nominees and my brief knee-jerks after the jump.

Is nomination leader Trumbo really an Oscar threat? Perhaps for Crantson...

SAG Awards bolster 'Birdman' for Best Picture, but not Best Actor...

Well, if you don't count Best Stunt Ensemble (which went to the solid work in Unbroken where I had guessed The Hobbit), I aced my SAG predictions...

... and I'm not entirely happy about that.

First of all, let's not dwell on the supporting races or on Best Actress. Those categories are all but sealed up with Patricia Arquette, J.K. Simmons, and Julianne Moore all coming out on top in their respective categories.

Let's also not dwell on Birdman's well deserved victory in Best Ensemble. It may not have been my absolute first choice but its cast was excellent and makes a fine winner. If you want to theorize about how "easy" it is for a movie about ACTING to win with the Screen Actors Guild, go ahead, but this is a merited honour for an outstanding collective performance.

What I think we do need to talk about is Best Actor. I had an unsettling feeling that tonight would be the night when frontrunner Michael Keaton would finally be unseated by Eddie Redmayne for his much more awards-typical performance as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. I don't want to give the impression that I begrudge Redmayne any accolades he receives for his impressive physical transformation, but this is not the outcome I wanted to see.

Awards Season Primed for Defining Weekend with 2 Key Guilds...

For many pundits, the Oscar race has already settled into a predictable groove, with many people picking Boyhood as the odds-on favourite.

I... am not convinced. Not yet, anyway.

Yes, Boyhood has been winning Best Picture prizes left, right and centre for the last two months, but let's put things into a bit of context: Every award it's collected all season has been from some critics or media group. It's the sort of ambitious, artistically inspired movie that was always going to appeal to them, but these people don't vote on Academy Awards.

There is an Oscar season from years past that immediately springs to mind when I consider the pattern of this season thus far: The 2010/2011 season, in which
The Social Network won every critics honour under the sun before its momentum was snatched away by The King's Speech. When was it that the eventual Best Picture winner made its move? --- At the Producers Guild of America Awards.

Golden Globe nominations: Big gain for 'Selma', death knell for 'Unbroken'?

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association have announced the their nominees for the Golden Globe Awards, adding fuel to the campaign fires of some borderline contenders, but also dousing those of others.

I'll mention my specific commentaries for each individual category after the cut, but for now, a few immediate observations:

-Yesterday's SAG shutout of Selma proved merely to be a byproduct of its late entry into the race, as it popped up in four categories today (including Picture and Director).

-Conversely, Unbroken pulled up a big ole goose egg with both organizations. If any group was gonna chomp at the bit for Angelina Jolie's celebrity, it was the HFPA. It could still squeak out a Best Picture nomination a la War Horse -- another perfect-on-paper Oscar bait movie that disappointed on arrival -- but its hopes are dwindling fast.

-All of yesterday's SAG nominees repeated except for Naomi Watts, which means it'll be hard to anticipate who gets edged out come Oscar time. There's no way we're gonna have a perfect match-up across all three groups.

-The most unhappy snub of the day: John Carney's wonderful Begin Again being completely shut out of the Comedy/Musical categories and even Best Song! Criminal.

Check out all the film nominees and my quick thoughts below:

Only a handful of surprises in SAG nominations

The SAG awards always present something of an enigma to awards watchers. Their nominating committee is significantly smaller than the full membership who votes on the winners, which often results in one or two out-of-left-field contenders. They also decide their nominees so early, that a few late-breaking juggernauts always miss the cut.

Evidence of both these intriguing qualities were present in this morning's nomination announcement, which otherwise stuck to the script most prognosticators imagine will be unfolding this season.

The biggest surprises came from the ladies' acting categories, which saw Jennifer Aniston break into the Best Actress race for her acclaimed work in the micro-indie Cake. Screeners for that one obviously landed in the right hands at the right time. An even more curious nomination is the one Naomi Watts garnered for St. Vincent, which played well at TIFF (on the inaugural 'Bill Murray Day') but has since been all but forgotten.

SAG winners

So the Screen Actors Guild has had their say, and for the most part, they were in lock step with the beat the season has set so far.

All the expected actors followed up on their BFCA wins two days ago, with the only category of some dispute being supporting actress. Lupita Nyongo's win tonight over chief competition Jennifer Lawrence (who won just last year) seems to have effectively settled that question though.

SAG, PGA Preview

The first of the industry's top guilds to announce their winners for 2013 will be the Screen Actors Guild (broadcast live tonight) and the Producers Guild of America (tomorrow).

All eyes are on American Hustle to snatch SAG's coveted Best Ensemble award, but nothing's ever set in stone. Remember just last year that another starry David O. Russell ensemble piece, Silver Linings Playbook, was also pegged to take this category, only to be trumped by eventual Best Picture juggernaut Argo, despite it not winning any individual acting honours. So it is possible that 12 Years a Slave could still pull the same trick it did at the Globes and the Critics Choice; keeping a lower profile all night before popping up in the final envelope.

SAG nominations

The Screen Actors Guild is the first major trade group out of the gate this year, and even though their nominees are always somewhat predictable, there's always a surprise or two to stir the pot.

Nominees and individual commentaries on the film categories after the jump.

Why and Why Not Argo?

What a bizarre and fascinating awards season it's been so far. Even before the season truly began in December, it was apparent that this would be the most tightly contested Oscar race in recent memory. But the date change for nominations added another layer of nuance onto the proceedings.

Without the benefit of the DGA's nominees to guide them, the Academy's directors branch voted with their hearts, and yielded a pair of refreshingly unexpected Best Director nominees upon which future generations are destined to look back and smile with approval. But it yielded one unfortunate omission which has now thrown the season into flux. Funny how one little "snub" can so entirely muddy the waters of Oscar prognostication.

Funny also how it can so fervently stoke the fires of debate. Across the Internet we're seeing writers and pundits making heated arguments (some coloured by more than just a little personal bias) as to why Argo will, or why Argo won't, win Best Picture in just under a month's time.

So, why Argo?

SAG solidifies Argo as Best Picture frontrunner

I was going to liveblog tonight's SAG awards, but the local TV station that was supposed to carry it checked out for the first 40 minutes. By the time they corrected their error, I was too embittered to bother blogging, forced to watch an hour of TV categories before getting back around to the movie ones.

Things shook down mostly according to plan. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence strengthened their holds on Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress respectively. Best Supporting Actor was predictably unpredictable, but it ended up going to Tommy Lee Jones, as likely an Oscar bet as any.

SAG liveblog

8:00 - Here we go...

8:01 - No live blog tonight. Global TV has f***ed big time and is not broadcasting the feed that the TV guide and TV listings channel had said it would. With all the talk of Oscar snubs and whatnot, this is so far the biggest fail of the year.

SAG Preview...

Everything has been going Argo's way so far this season, but it might face a road block at tonight's Screen Actors Guild Awards. Actors make up the largest portion of the Academy's voting membership, and while a Best Ensemble win is not out of the cards for Argo's excellent cast, it's not favoured to win anything from SAG.

Rather, the two films poised to get the biggest boost from tonight's proceeding are Argo's stiffest competition for the Best Picture Oscar: Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln. Either of these movies is in good standing to win the Best Ensemble category (with a slight edge to SLP), and both are first in line to collect a Lead Acting award as well. They'll probably be duking it out in Best Supporting Actor, although that category could go a completely different direction.

The only other film that seems assured of a win is Les Miserables for Anne Hathaway's Oscar destined performance. Still, Sally Field continues to feel like a legitimate dark horse.

Here's hoping Skyfall's fearless daredevils can triumph in the Stunt Ensemble category.

My predictions after the cut.

SAG shines light on some unexpected outliers

As the critics groups mostly fall in line with the same, repetitive choices this time of year, it's always a brief treat to see what the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee can come up with to surprise us.

The major talking points with this year's crop are the unexpected inclusions in the Supporting categories of Nicole Kidman in the critically polarizing The Paperboy and Javier Bardem for his charismatic Bond villain in Skyfall. Both Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor have had lots of wiggle room (at least more than the Lead categories which are beginning to solidify), and either of these nominations could have an influence on Academy balloting which begins in just one week.

The crowded Lead categories are naturally more noteworthy for the performances that were excluded than the ones they let in. Best Actor has seemed like a six-way race for some time now between Day-Lewis, Cooper, Jackman, Washington, Hawkes, and Phoenix all vying for five slots. It was Phoenix who suffered the unavoidable SAG snub, a victim of his film's challenging nature. I've been wondering if his undeniable performance is in fact deniable after all, but up against leading men in five more universally liked movies could be the kiss of death. For the leading ladies, it was Emmanuelle Riva who got left off the ballot, but Marion Cotillard got in. Let's not kid ourselves: two Lead Actress nominees for foreign films at the Oscars was always going to be a long shot, and with Cotillard more of a household name stateside than Riva, this could be the slate we see on Oscar night (although I'll be rooting for Quevanzhane Wallis, who was ineligible with SAG, to be nominated).

The Ensemble category filled out with all the usual Best Picture contenders, though some might be surprised by The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. I'm not. If ever there was a film that could play to old Academy types, this is it. All nominees with brief thoughts after the cut.

SAG winners

Stunt Ensemble: Harry Potter

That's all well and good, but why wasn't Mission: Impossible nominated?

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer,
Beginners

Hard to see how Plummer loses this on Oscar night, but the sudden appearance of Max von Sydow (in a Best Picture nominee, no less) has made me wary.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer,
The Help

Yep. Looks like the Oscar's hers. Nice speech too.

Well, damn. Only fifteen minutes in and two of the five awards I care about are done. Am I gonna have to wait an hour and a half until we hit another movie category?

Loved seeing Dick Van Dyke take the stage to introduce and narrate the tribute reel to Lifetime Achievement honouree Mary Tyler Moore. Less thrilled about listening to Mary prattle on about her showbiz name in her speech.

Actor: Jean Dujardin,
The Artist

Well well well, it looks like Harvey's been at it again. Did that pitch perfect Globes speech give Dujardin that extra push here? Where does this put us in terms of the Oscar conversation?

Actress: Viola Davis,
The Help

YES! I was so worried this was going to Meryl. But that acceptance speech. Wow. If that can't net her the Oscar I don't know what can.

Ensemble: The Help

Inarguably the best of the lot.

Well, I BOMBED my predictions (three for six if you include Stunt Ensemble, because why not?), but I'll confess that I was somewhat hedging my bets by predicting Meryl and The Artist; I just really wanted to see Viola and The Help win their respective categories, which they did, so yay!

Tonight marks the third consecutive televised wins for Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer. They are the smart Oscar bets, although I have an unsettling suspicion that Max von Sydow could sneak in the backdoor on Plummer. More on that later this week.

The Best Actress tiebreaker fell in favour of Viola Davis, and it was a huge win because it gave her another chance to move the room to tears with a staggering acceptance speech. Believe it or not, those can make a difference. It's PR gold that can tip the scales in your favour if you do it right, and in her two trips to the podium this season, Viola has NAILED it both times. I think the Oscar is her's to lose.

But what about Best Actor? I said that if someone was going to make a move on Clooney it would have to happen here, and it did. Clooney has the BFCA and the Drama Globe, Dujardin has the SAG and the Comedy Globe. It's worth noting that a comedic performance hasn't won the Best Actor Oscar since 1999 when Roberto Benigni ludicrously won for Life is Beautiful, but it's also worth noting that he also won the SAG and was backed by Weinstein (Mirimax, that is). I'm gonna have to think about this one.

SAG predictions

The Screen Actors Guild sound off tomorrow night. Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress seem fairly decided, but if a challenger is going to emerge in any of those categories, it'll have to happen tomorrow. Best Actress, meanwhile, is actually an uncertain showdown between Streep and Davis, after they split victories between the BFCA and Globes. Tomorrow's announcement is an important tie-breaker.

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Acting Ensemble: The Artist
Best Stunt Ensemble: Harry Potter

SAG nominees

So the first big guild to weigh in is the Screen Actors Guild, who have singled out what they deem the year's best performances. Following a busy four days of critics groups who have mostly been falling into their old 'group think' habits, it's encouraging to see the industry itself offer up some more original awards options (whether you agree with them or not).

Damien Bichir, whose critically acclaimed lead turn in A Better Life was thought to be largely forgotten, resurfaced with a Best Actor nomination. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) rectified a weak precursor showing with a tip of the hat for Best Actress, along with costar Janet McTeer in Supporting.

Speaking of Supporting Actress, Melissa McCarthy, of Bridesmaids' allegedly hilarious cast, continues to have a surprisingly strong precursor season, finding room for a nomination here to compliment her three critics awards and BFCA nomination. More to come for the comedienne? The whole cast also got cited for Best Ensemble.

The real puzzling category is Supporting Actor. With only Albert Brooks of Drive and Christopher Plummer of Beginners winning critics awards so far (and both of them terrific performances, by the way), those other three slots have been ripe for the plucking. Nick Nolte of Warrior follows up his BFCA nod with one from SAG, and surprise nominations went to Jonah Hill for Moneyball and Armie Hammer for J. Edgar. Did not see either of those coming. Nor did I see coming the snub of Albert Brooks, although I remain optimistic of his Oscar chances.

See all the nominees after the cut