One Category at a Time: Makeup

I gotta hand it to the makeup branch; they don't let anyone tell them what to do! They've always been concerned purely with the work presented in the film and not at all with the quality of the film itself, and that's really the way it should be. But it does throw a kink into the Oscar-predictor's plans, especially in a year like this when all three nominees are only nominated for that one Makeup category.

Barney's version had some pretty solid aging work on display, progressing Paul Giamatti's character over the course of several decades. But how many people have seen the film? How many people liked it?

The work done on Peter Weir's The Way Back (by the same Oscar-nominated team of Master and Commander) is a great inclusion here. The realization of sunburns, swollen feet, and general dishevelment is detailed and incredibly realistic. Again: how many people have seen it?

Then there's The Wolfman, with frankly awesome transformative magic spun by makeup god Rick Baker. People seem to forget that there's a whole lot more than just a hairy Benicio del Toro in this movie, but all manner of illnesses and wound effects that required just as much care and artfulness. Again: how many people have seen the film? How many even remember it? How many want to?

Since we can't rely on any perceived popularity to point us to the winner, we have to fall back on the old most-equals-best philosophy the Academy employs in the craft categories.

Will win: The Wolfman
Runner-up: Barney's Version

Should win: The Wolfman
Should have been nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1