Sunday Top Ten: Pet Peeves of the 2011 Oscar Season

Here's an early installment of what I hope will be a successful feature on the site this year. Didn't make sense to wait 'til May before unleashing this one. Best get this therapeutic bout of bitching out of the way early, so I can move on to some more positive thinking!

#10: Late releases
Nominees released in 2010 were terribly back-ended this year. True, this is basically the case every year, but there were so many good ones I couldn't see until February, and it just made the awards-watching season all the more hectic.

#9: The King's Speech marketing
Oh, that Harvey Weinstein. This is the third season in a row his Best Picture pony has irked me by its mere inclusion in the lineup. Granted, The King's Speech is far better than Inglourious Basterds and The Reader, but the type of advertising campaign it got was way beneath it, from that lame, poorly photoshopped poster to this hammy trailer that "reminds us we're all human".

#8: Dull show
I was so miffed by the 2010 Oscarcast that both it and its producer Adam Shankman soared to the top of last year's list of seasonal pestilences. But that didn't give this year's show a free ticket, and indeed, producers Bruce Cohen and Don Mischer managed to disappoint. Some of the blame could be laid on the predictability of the winners, but lazy writing, poor hosting, and a severe lack of focus ensured that this year's Oscars were a snooze.

#7: Spousal snubs
In a year that saw some terrific tandem acting from performers playing husband and wife (or wife and wife), it was such a shame that only one half of each whole was represented by the nominations. Julianne Moore was sidelined all season long (save for the Golden Globes) in favour of her Kids Are All Right costar Annette Bening, Aaron Eckhart gained no traction whatsoever despite giving a gut-wrenching performance opposite Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, and Blue Valentine's Ryan Gosling was tragically left out of the Best Actor race while Michelle Williams eked into Best Actress. There's just not enough room for all the greatness.

#6: Lee Smith snub

There's one every year. Two years ago it was the rude exclusion of Bruce Springsteen's “The Wrestler” from Best Original Song, last year it was the unjustifiable omission of District 9 from Best Makeup, and this year it was the unfathomable snub by the editors branch of Lee Smith for arguably the finest film editing achievement of 2010, Inception. What can I say? It's nothing less than a complete and utter embarrassment.

#5: The Social Network vs The King's Speech, offline
I tell ya, it's kind of uncomfortable sitting down to Christmas dinner with your entire extended family and being the only person at the table who didn't LOVE The King's Speech. I liked it, sure, and yet nearly everyone I've talked about it with has accused me of damning it with faint praise, simply because I wasn't as over-the-moon as they were. Conversely, being the only person around the water cooler who thought The Social Network was the year's best movie made it an awfully lonely season out in the real world.

#4: The Social Network vs The King's Speech, online
Normally, I take comfort in the fact that if my regular human contacts don't share the same taste in cinema as me, at least there's an enormous community of film aficionados on the Internet with whom I can commiserate in The Social Network ultimately falling short to The King's Speech. And yet, what I found online was far uglier and more oppressive than the one-sided but polite discussions that vexed me offline. Depending on who you read, you may have avoided some of it, but the noise of Social Network fans cruelly and unfairly besmirching The King's Speech was still deafening.

#3: Melissa Leo

One of the season's biggest talking points by far. Some people found her crazy award show antics endearingly eccentric, and that's their right. Just like it's my right to find them vain and tacky. From her self-centred acceptance speeches to her gaudy personal ad campaign to her accidentally-on-purpose use of the dreaded F-word on Oscar's stage, to me, it all reeked of arrogance. And to be honest, I thought the performance was good – not Oscar-good. Costar Amy Adams would have made a much more deserving and welcome winner.

#2: Alice in Wonderland
Somebody shoot me in the head. I hated this movie as soon as it hit the 30-minute mark when I first saw it last March. I wrote a quick pan and prayed that I wouldn't have to write about it for the rest of the year. Apparently, that was too much to ask. Its overcooked, uncoordinated, domineering, in-your-face design elements had no problem coasting through the season by sheer “virtue” of their retina-battering conspicuousness, eventually scooping two Oscars (a number infinitely more than it deserved), reinforcing the theory that the Academy is almost always more impressed by quantity than they are by quality.

#1: Deakins still Oscarless
Months ago, when the trailer for True Grit came out, certain bloggers boldly predicted that this would finally be Roger Deakins' year. I wanted to believe them, and I was even convinced to the point of predicting it myself after nominations, but deep down I knew their premature predictions had jinxed it. So here's a prediction for you:

Roger Deakins will NEVER win an Academy Award.

If he can't get one for the most typical of movies to win Best Cinematography, what's it going to take? The worst part is, I really want to be happy for Wally Pfister, who himself was overdue, but not by nearly as many years as Deakins. I was unable to enjoy what should have been a reason to cheer. This year's Oscar ceremony was ultimately a night I wouldn't mind forgetting, and this early catastrophe certainly set the appropriate tone.

Oscar autopsy

Another year over. And appropriately enough to the nature of the season, it ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. There were few surprises to be had, as for the second straight year I managed to correctly predict 18 of 24 winners, including all eight major categories.

The closest thing to a surprise was Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross collecting trophies for what might be the most atypical Oscar-winning score ever. I was not expecting it to win, but apparently that's one category where I should have given the voting membership the benefit of the doubt. Well done.

Unfortunately, there was little satisfaction to be had in the rest. The night's biggest disappointment came early, in cinematography god Roger Deakins failing to win an Oscar for the ninth time. Yo, Academy, do you not think he's due or something? What has he done to you to make you treat him this way? Disgusting. But to be fair, Wally Pfister is a worthy alternative. He's been putting out consistently astonishing work with Christopher Nolan for the better part of the decade now, and this win for his fourth consecutive nomination is a fitting way to applaud one of the best director/DP collaborations working today.

Other disappointment, albeit a less surprising one, came in the form of Tim Burton's hideous Alice in Wonderland winning both design categories over infinitely more deserving work. I might have known. Let this be a lesson: always always always predict for "most" to trump "best" when the Academy chooses winners here.

True Grit joins the ranks of Gangs of New York, The Turning Point, and The Color Purple as one of the biggest Oscar losers of all time, going 0 for 10. Guess the Academy didn't love it that much after all.

The King's Speech seemed to underwhelm as well, winning only four of its twelve nominations (all of them major categories though). Other multiple winners include The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Inception, the aforementioned Alice, and The Fighter, nailing down acting awards for Christian Bale and that nutty Melissa Leo, who proceeded to use the F-word on live TV. Some people are endeared to her antics and crazy behaviour, but I have to confess that I've never liked her, and her speech reeked of the same arrogance as have all her speeches this season.

The show itself left something to be desired. It didn't stink on the level of last year's fiasco, but it was pretty boring. Many reviews are pointing a finger (a bit harshly I think) at James Franco, who was either feigning reluctance to be there in a failed attempt at accenting Anne Hathaway's vibrant presence, or was actually reluctant to be there and doing a bad job at hiding it. I don't blame him for the show's overall lack of personality, but he certainly wasn't helping matters.

And that's really all there is I feel merited my commentary. All in all, not much of a finale to the season. Upsetting. But at the end of the day, some very talented artists got richly deserved recognition for their invaluable contributions to the medium we love so much, and I can never complain about that. Congrats to all the winners. I'm gonna keep a low profile in the coming months. I'll chime in here or there as we continue to experience the fallout this week, but mostly, I'll be busy looking into what 2011 has to offer us in the way of movie-going.

Thanks for reading! Enjoy your Oscar off-season.

Favourite shots from the Cinematography nominees

Some people have let me know how disappointed they were that I didn't make time in my analysis of Best Cinematography this year to highlight my favourite shots from each of the nominees as I did last year. I didn't really think anyone cared about it, but I've had requests, so I'll gladly oblige.

But first, I have to refer you to Kris Tapley's annual top ten list for the best moving images of the year; an absolute treat I look forward to reading and linking to every Oscar season.

Like last year, I'm limiting my list of shots to the five nominees for Best Cinematography, simply because I haven't the time to go sifting through all the year's movies again to find my favourites overall. Anyway, see them after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Picture

A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.

Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:

127 Hours: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
Black Swan: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Inception: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Kids Are All Right: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Toy Story 3: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
True Grit: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Winter's Bone: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)

And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.

The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.


The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.

True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).

You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:

-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone

Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole

IFMA winners!

Film Score of the Year: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Composer of the Year: Alexandre Desplat
Best Score for an Animated Film: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Best Score for a Drama Film: Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Best Score for an Action/Adventure/Thriller Film: Alexandre Desplat, The Ghost Writer
Best Score for a Comedy Film: Pinar Toprak, The Lightkeepers.
Best Score to a Fantasy/Science Fiction/Horror Film: Daft Punk, TRON: Legacy
Best Score for a Documentary Film: Bruno Coulais, Oceans
Best Individual Composition: Danny Elfman, “Alice Theme” from Alice in Wonderland
Breakout Composer of the Year: Nuno Malo, Amalia

I have to say I like these winners. For the most part that is. I am a wee bit baffled as to how Danny Elfman's derivative "Alice" can be seen (or heard) as a more accomplished composition than John Powell's beautiful "Forbidden Friendship", but at least Powell took home the big prize for Best Film Score of the Year, a fitting consolation given that he stands little chance of winning the Oscar.

I'm thrilled to see Daft Punk get some due recognition for what is some of the year's most awesome music in TRON Legacy, and to see Alexandre Desplat actually win for his atmospheric Ghost Writer score, to go along with his expected win for King's Speech. It's looking like his year.

One Category at a Time: Director

Flip a coin folks. Much like Film Editing, here's another category that can go either the way of The Social Network of The King's Speech.

It's a funny thing, the mechanistics of the awards race. All through December it became apparent that David Fincher was the man to beat for Best Director, having snagged two dozen critics awards (including the Critics' Choice) and the Golden Globe. Even when The King's Speech stole the PGA and accrued twelve Oscar nominations, thus becoming the Best Picture frontrunner, Best Director was still David Fincher's to lose... until the DGA and its massive voting membership (most of whom work in television) handed their top honour to Tom Hooper. He became the new leader of the pack, but then his fellow countrymen in BAFTA tipped the hat in Fincher's direction again, making this once more, a tight two-horse race.

To predict a split, or not predict a split?

When in doubt, go with the Best Picture winner. And go with it I shall.

Naturally, the nominee who deserves it the most - Darren Aronofsky for his dazzling execution of Black Swan - has the least shot of winning. Figures.

As for the Coens and David O. Russell, I'm happy for them. Honest. But I can't pretend like they belong here over the likes of Christopher Nolan. True Grit was a helluva good popcorn movie, but had so little personality outside of the performances. And The Fighter is simply overrated. Not that I blame Russell so much for its garbled structure and arrhythmia, but I still don't really consider it a great achievement in directing.

Will win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Runner-up: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception

CDG winners

Contemporary: Black Swan
Fantasy: The King's Speech
Period: Alice in Wonderland

As expected. The King's Speech and Alice are neck-in-neck for the Oscar. Same with Art Direction. I don't know what to do!

At least the Oscar-snubbed Amy Westcott got some recognition for her outstanding costumes in Black Swan.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

This is just one of many tight races that will be decided on Oscar night. The King's Speech and The Social Network are neck-in-neck. As I've stated before, the cause for uncertainty stems from the two conflicting schools of thought on how the general Academy votes on these categories that they might not understand; do they vote for the movie they liked better, or for the movie with the more noticeable craft? There are probably plenty of voters who fall into either camp, but as to which camp is more populated is anybody's guess.

At least it comes down the two most deserving nominees, in my opinion. Tariq Anwar does a terrific job at punctuating the actors' performances with shrewd shot selection for The King's Speech, and Baxter and Wall give The Social Network a flow that can't be topped. Either of them would make a fine winner in lieu of Lee Smith, who suffered the most egregious snub of the year when the editors branch gave Inception the kick.
The only clue I can look to for guidance (or misguidance as the case may be) is the ACE Eddie, which has gone to the eventual Oscar winner for the last nine consecutive years, almost always in the Drama category. The Social Network took that this year, so I'm gonna put my faith in the trend.

As for the also-rans, there's some decent work on display, most notably Andrew Weisblum's cutting of Black Swan. I don't relish the task of trying to moderate and control Aronofsky's off-the-wall visuals. The boxing sequences in The Fighter were well put together by Pamela Martin, and John Harris certainly amped up the intensity in 127 Hours (even if I'm not exactly on board with that directorial decision).

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inception

The King's Sweep

There seems to be two philosophies dominating the predictions I see floating around in the Oscarweb; those of foresee a sweep for The King's Speech, and those who foresee the Academy spreading the love.

A King's Speech sweep could win as many as eleven awards, including:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design

(I don't think it can win Sound Mixing)

whereas if AMPAS decides to share the wealth, it could look something like this:
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director - David Fincher
Best Actor - Colin Firth
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo or Hailee Steinfeld
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Cinematography - True Grit
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Original Score - The King's Speech
Best Art Direction - Alice in Wonderland
Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland

The real problem is those craft categories. A common theory is the general Academy, uneducated about the specifics of tech awards, merely vote for the "most" instead of the "best". The King's Speech indeed has fine editing, production design, costume design, photography, and music, but it doesn't boast the "most" of any of those things. This is especially true in Costume Design where I suspect BFCA and BAFTA winner Alice in Wonderland is a real threat.

Which case will we see on Oscar night? The love-in or the love-spreading? Maybe a little bit of both. I continue to hold out hope for Roger Deakins to collect his long overdue Oscar, and I just don't see either Carter or Rush pulling out wins (although Leo's foolish personal campaign and Carter's BAFTA win put her in prime upset position).

And what about Best Director? It's practically a toss up between Hooper and Fincher. So many uncertainties.

Here's a prediction for you: I'm going to guess more categories wrong this year than I have in years!

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

This is gonna be the most nerve-wracking category of the night for me. Usually, I try not to emotionally invest myself in anything related to Oscar... but I wanna see Roger Deakins win for once, dammit! The man has shot some of my all-time favourite movies, and some of the most memorable images I've ever seen committed to film. If I have to watch him lose for the eighth time I'm gonna stick my head in an oven... and pump that oven full of chlorine gas... and then launch it into the sun.

What's worse is I'm actually predicting him to win, so if he doesn't there's the added sting of having guessed the category wrong. It's quite possible I will be wrong as well. You could make a strong case for any of the nominees winning.

Well, okay, maybe not so much The Social Network. Not that I don't admire Jeff Cronenweth's fine work, but it just doesn't say ''Oscar winner'' to me. But the other four nominees are all plausible victors.

Black Swan has the NY and LA film critics prizes under its tutu, but what it really has going for it is the sheer maddening brilliance of Lebatique and Aronofsky's vision.

Inception has the Critics' Choice and ASC going for it, plus that exhilarated feeling it leaves audiences with as they walk out of the theatre. Wally Pfister had better win an Oscar someday.

The King's Speech has the Best Picture frontrunner factor in it favour, and a potential sweep that threatens to rob dozens of deserving craftspeople of their rightful Oscars. Not that Danny Cohen's framing isn't effective. It's just not the best of the year.

Finally, True Grit has the BAFTA in hand and is the most traditionally beautiful of the five; postcard-perfect vistas and gorgeous lighting (Deakins' specialty, don'tchya know), which may be all it needs to eke out a win. The fact that it's clearly a well liked movie helps.

Damn well better win: True Grit
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island

One Category at a time: Original Score

Not sure how to feel about this category. On the one hand, I could rejoice that my three favourite scores of the year all managed nominations from this often-questionable branch. On the other hand, I could despair that all of them are likely to lose to a far inferior score. On the other hand, the composer of said score should have won two years ago, and it'd be nice to see him win the Oscar he should already have. On the other hand, it'd be annoying to see him win his Oscar for a score that doesn't even come close to the inventiveness and memorability of his previous work, let alone his fellow nominees this year. What's a guy to do?

That score which is causing me so much grief is Alexandre Desplat's for The King's Speech. It looks like the one that's going to win to me, but deep down, it just doesn't sound right, does it?

What Hans Zimmer did on Inception is a brilliant accomplishment in building mood and intensity. John Powell's music, enjoyable and beautiful, makes How to Train Your Dragon soar. The identity Reznor and Ross infused into The Social Network is highly unique; a completely successful defiance of convention that works without intruding. They're all the epitome of effective and unforgettable music.

And then there's The King's Speech...

...and I struggle to find something to say. Not to sully Desplat's elegant work with petty quibbles, but I get the feeling that (assuming he wins) this'll be one of those Oscar wins that people will look back on 50 years from now, scrunch their noses and say, "Really?"

Could Inception upset? They may not like the movie enough. How to Train Your Dragon? Not a Best Picture nominee. The Social Network? Too atypical.

Oh yeah, A.R. Rahman (who robbed Desplat of the Oscar he should have won two years ago) is also nominated, but I don't think 127 Hours has enough support to factor into the equation here.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Inception

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy

King's Speech woos BAFTA

Surprise, surprise. Seven BAFTAs seems just about what I would have thought for The King's Speech, although I wasn't quite expecting it to take three of the four acting prizes. Helena Bonham Carter winning Best Supporting Actress is only semi-surprising, given frontrunner Melissa Leo's lack of a nomination, but Geoffrey Rush upsetting Christian Bale... let's just hope this doesn't materialize with the Academy.

What most surprises me is that it only took home one craft award (for Original Score). Most people are preparing themselves for an Oscar sweep of sorts, but BAFTA has done a nice job spreading the wealth around. Some choices are dubious, like two awards for Alice in Wonderland (including Costume Design, its biggest Oscar opportunity), but others are inspired, like the Film Editing win for The Social Network. And despite all odds, Inception keeps picking up those richly deserved but hardly expected citations for its year-best Production Design. Might there be hope for Oscar after all?

Black Swan's impressive nomination tally of 12 yielded only a single win for Natalie Portman, but that should hopefully be enough to help her fend off a late surge from Annette Bening.

And what of David Fincher's win? Is he strong enough to overcome Tom Hooper?

Obviously The King's Speech is still going to win Best Picture, but The King's Sweep is looking a bit vulnerable.

Best Film – The King’s Speech
Best Director – The Social Network – David Fincher
Best Leading Actress – Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Best Leading Actor – Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress – Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actor – Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Best Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech – David Seidler
Outstanding British Film – The King’s Speech
Outstanding British Debut – Four Lions – Chris Morris
Best Cinematography – True Grit – Roger Deakins
Best Editing – The Social Network – Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
Best Original Music – The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat
Best Production Design – Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood
Best Sound – Inception – Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick
Best Special Visual Effects – Inception – Corbould, Franklin, Lockley, Bebb
Best Make Up & Hair – Alice in Wonderland – Valli O’Reilly, Paul Gooch
Best Short Film – Until the River Runs Red – Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis
Best Short Animation – The Eagleman Stag – Michael Please
Best Film Not in the English Language – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Animated Film – Toy Story 3
Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award – Tom Hardy

BAFTA and ASC today.

Today we learn the winners of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards. I think most people are anticipating a sweep of sorts for hometown favourite The King's Speech, and so am I.

We will also learn which film the American Society of Cinematographers have decided has the best photography of the year. I'm firmly in Roger Deakins' cheering section (even if I feel Black Swan's Matthew Lebatique deserves it above all comers), yet I've got that horrible feeling it'll go to Danny Cohen for The King's Speech, possibly ruining Deakins' chances at that long overdue Oscar. Step up ASC. Do the right thing.

One Category at a Time: Costume Design

It's said that the Academy in general votes for the craft categories in one of two ways: either it votes for the "Most" instead of the "Best", or it votes for the movie it likes the best.

If they're voting for the "Most", then I say Alice in Wonderland will win for Colleen Atwood's colourful (see: glaring, clashy) fantasy threads, since there's no decadent 18th Century royalty porn for them to vote for.

If they're voting for whatever they like the most, then it's obviously going to The King's Speech. Add to that the fact that, while not exactly like the royalty porn of the last four years, the film is technically about European monarchy, and thus can keep this category's streak alive. I'm venturing that Jenny Beavan will celebrate her first win in 23 years.

You could apply the same logic of a win for "Most" Costume Design to The Tempest and Sandy Powell's interesting costumes, but that movie is despised to an extent that makes even Alice in Wonderland look good.

I Am Love is contemporary, so it's out, and no Western has ever won, so that should nix True Grit as well. That's not to undersell Antonella Cannarozzi and Mary Zophres' terrific work. Both of them, especially Zophres, did awesome jobs at using clothes to accentuate character, and it'd be swell to see one of them win, but keep dreaming.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: True Grit
Should have been nominated: Get Low

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

This will probably the second year in a row that the Oscar winner here was not eligible for the WGA. (Silly me. Totally thought Basterds won WGA last year. Doi!)
While last year's showdown between Inglorious Basterds and eventual Oscar winner The Hurt Locker was cause for legitimate indecision before the outcome, this year's perceived showdown between WGA winner Inception and Best Picture juggernaut The King's Speech is probably not much of a fight.

You can't help but be happy for David Seidler. Having long since overcome his own stammer, it's clear his attachment to the story he tells is a passionate and personal one. In spite of what more deserving nominees there are, his is still a droll and sincere script. You can't begrudge him his success.

At least Christopher Nolan can take his WGA victory as consolation. The mind-fucking originality of Inception lingers and improves with age, while also delivering an understated emotional cadence. It's great to see him recognized for this extraordinary filmmaking achievement.

It's highly unfortunate that Mike Leigh and Lisa Cholodenko are going unrewarded. The Kids Are All Right is the finest original screenplay of the year; genuinely emotional and emotionally genuine, tackling the complexity of human relationships with wit and insight. Though much different in tone, the devastating honesty of Another Year leaves an impression no less unshakable.

I could have done without The Fighter in this category, which is gradually becoming my most overrated film of the year, but you knew it would show up here. People like the movie, and I have to hand it to the writers for hammering a relatively messy collection of events into something relatively cohesive.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: The Kids Are All Right

Should win: The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Toy Story 3

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

In the years I've been doing this I don't believe I've ever guessed both Sound categories correctly (though I've come awfully close). This year has me similarly unsure of myself, as both categories could come down to either of two movies.

The obvious choice in this category, Inception, may actually be less safe than assumed. There's no denying the sophistication of the mix, and the sheer volume of it is all it'll need to convince some voters, but I get the nagging feeling that it's vulnerable to an upset (in both categories) by True Grit. The mixing team (who, in my opinion, should have won this category for No Country for Old Men three years ago) has done a terrific job that's nuanced but noticeable enough to draw votes away from Inception. Love for the film may push it across the finish line here. I'm not ballsy enough to predict it, but I smell a mini-upset in the works.

If it ends up being either The Social Network or The King's Speech, then there's your Best Picture sweeper right there. But those mixes are probably too subtle to register with the Academy at large.

Congrats to Greg P. Russell on his 14th career nomination for Salt. Shame that he's destined to lose yet again. Step up, Academy! Give the man his Oscar. And while you're at it, give one to Kevin O'Connell as well.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Black Swan

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

This category is the only interesting one in the major categories, with a shaky frontrunner primed for an upset by a couple of potential spoilers.

Said frontrunner is Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Not to take anything away from her hard-earned success this season, but I really don't see what makes her performance so special. She does a good job, but I can't say I'm as taken as everyone else appears to be. Having swept the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Award, the smart money's on her, but she feels very vulnerable. Her acceptance speeches always seem to come across as being a bit full of herself, and word that she's recently embarked upon her own personal FYC campaign may be the grain of sand that tips the scales in someone else's favour.

Someone like Hailee Steinfeld, whose terrific realization of Mattie Ross in True Grit is the best performance of the five. There's a lot of support for the film and the performance, and this may be the place the Academy recognizes it, if Deakins' cinematography doesn't come to fruition.

Or it could go to Amy Adams, who gives a superior performance to Melissa Leo's if you ask me, and who's at just the right point in her career to win an Oscar, but this strikes me as a less likely possibility, given how much support Melissa Leo is still pulling.

Helena Bonham Carter might (just barely might) shock us all if The King's Speech is really going to sweep, but probably not. As for Jackie Weaver, good for her! It's great to see unknowns get recognized for obscure films, even though you know they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Runner-up: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should have been nominated: Lesley Manville, Another Year

ADG winners

Period: The King's Speech
Fantasy: Inception
Contemporary: Black Swan

Great to see Inception (the best production design of the year as far as I'm concerned) win out over Alice in Wonderland (the most overrated production design of the year as far as I'm concerned) in the Fantasy category.

The King's Speech expectedly won the Period category for its fine set dressing, likely on its way to Oscar's podium. Black Swan, though ignored by the Academy's art directors branch, took a well deserved gong for Contemporary design.

Congrats to the winners. It's a very fine slate.

WGA, ADG, Annie Preview

Having won the USC Scripter prize just last night with Ben Mezrich, Aaron Sorkin is likely to continue The Social Network's screenwriting winning streak with an Adapted Screenplay win at tonight's WGA awards. Any winner other than him would be a total shock.

As for Original Screenplay, intriguing scenario. David Seidler's soon-to-be-Oscar-winning script for The King's Speech is ridiculously ineligible, of course, so who takes it? Could they tip a hat to Christopher Nolan in consolation of his Director snub by the Academy? Could the general affection felt towards The Fighter push its team of writers to a win? Or will this be the one major industry prize Lisa Cholodenko (along with Stuart Blumberg) can lay claim to this season? I'm hoping for and predicting the latter. The Kids Are All Right is just too good a movie for her to go completely unrewarded this year.

Let's not forget two other industry groups announcing their winners tonight; The ADG and the Annie Awards.

I see The King's Speech, Alice in Wonderland, and Black Swan emerging victorious with the art directors, while the animation academy will probably provide How To Train Your Dragon with a hearty love fest, given how much of their organization is composed of Dreamworks employees.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

What more is there really to say about this category? Or any acting category for that matter? The same four performers have won the BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards and will all probably continue on to take the Oscars.

There's only one possible scenario I can envision in which Christian Bale does not win this; a bona fide sweep for The King's Speech. If the voters really are as lazy as that when they have their ballots in hand, and vote for the film in every category, Geoffrey Rush can ride that pony all the way to podium. But that's not gonna happen. Performances are one thing that Academy members will vote for based on their own merits, rather than the merits of the film. That, or they vote for whichever star they like, and the way Bale's been walking the rope line and charming his way through the circuit, I can't see him not winning this. It also helps that his performance is by far more complex and fully realized than Rush's good-humoured but comparatively thin one.

Oh yeah, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, and Mark Ruffalo are all nominated too, but they're just along for the ride, which is too bad because they delivered some of the finest performances of the year, all of them making my own top five. Renner had us on edge all the way, Hawkes nailed nastiness and goodness all at once, and Ruffalo made easy-going look so much easier than it truly is! I really wish any of them could have won something this year, but you can't derail Bale!

Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Should win: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Ed Harris, The Way Back