The extra two slots added to the Best Visual Effects field last year have given us prognosticators more degrees of freedom to work with, and give new hope to some films that probably wouldn't be in the conversation otherwise.
Films like
Hereafter, which was by no means a big effects film, but used its effects wisely in a solid supporting role and earned a nomination for it. Perhaps a film that can emulate that this year is Terrence Malick's
The Tree of Life, which apparently will be sporting dinosaurs in certain sequences and perhaps other shots that may require interesting effects work. Consider this a reckless wild card pick.
The
Harry Potter franchise's final installment lands this summer. Having been nominated for two previous
Potter films, including last year's
The Deathly Hallows: Part 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect branch give Tim Burke and company one final kick at the can. Maybe the Academy will feel inclined to let them win as a way of honouring the series?
There's always one or two huge summer blockbusters that make it in here, and this summer is at no shortage of effects-heavy potential blockbusters. But many of them are comic book adaptations, which only occasionally hit with the Academy. They tend to be kinder to original material, and that's where I give J.J. Abrams' effects team for
Super 8 (who've already proven themselves on
Star Trek) an edge over the competition.
But sequels can sometimes score here if their predecessors did, in which case
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides may be sitting pretty. All three previous
Pirates films have been nominated here, even as the critics have become progressively less kind to them. The extra two slots are a benefit for films that might otherwise be sunk by bad reviews.
Finally, Joe Letteri et. al. at Weta Digital, who have worked such wonders on the
Lord of the Rings trilogy and most recently
Avatar, are heading Steven Spielberg's take on
Tintin. But will the effects branch go for a completely motion-captured film?
Avatar had enough live-action footage to convince the Academy that its effects were effects, but they've never given a second glance to any of Robert Zemekis' motion-capture endeavours. Might they consider
Tintin just a glorified animated film?
Predicted five:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
The Tree of Life
Also consider: Captain America,
Cowboys and Aliens,
Green Lantern,
Hugo Cabret,
Transformers 3,
X-Men: First Class,
Thor.
