'Birdman' and 'Sniper' Both Win MPSE Awards

The Motion Picture Sound Editors spread the wealth at last night's Golden Reel Awards, bestowing trophies upon the Oscar-nominated sound editing teams of Birdman, American Sniper, Unbroken, among others not cited by the Academy's sound branch; Big Hero 6, Get On Up, The Liberator, and Warsaw Uprising.

American Sniper's victory came on its sole nomination, Best Sound Effects and Foley, commonly seen as the closest descriptor of the Oscar for sound editing.

I'm starting to smell a bit of a Hugo-v.-War-Horse situation brewing in the sound categories...

Sunday Top Ten - Pet Peeves of the 2011-12 Oscar season

This little custom of mine has become a nice form of post-Oscar therapy for me. It's perfect for bringing some closure to the season and releasing the pressure valve on the season's many frustrations. You may note that I didn't include any of this year's big nomination snubs, and there were plenty to choose from: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy for Art Direction, The Tree of Life for Visual Effects, Captain America for Original Song... but I came to terms with those a month ago, so it's more useful for me to unload my other awards season woes, some of which you might share, others you might disagree with. You'll have to keep reading to find out.

Oscar Post-mortem

Where to begin on last Sunday's Academy Awards?

Obviously The Artist was the big winner, taking five trophies including Best Picture, Director, Actor. Hugo matched that tally with five craft wins, while the dreadful Iron Lady won two (gak!), and the list of one-win wonders includes The Help, Beginners, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Muppets (becoming the first Muppet movie to win an Oscar! YAY!)

Surprises were few and far between, and those that we did get were decidedly unpleasant ones if you ask me. The biggest of said unpleasant surprises was no doubt Meryl Streep's victory in Best Actress, but don't let me give you the impression that I'm vindictive. I'm as big a fan of the lady as the next man. Year after year, Streep continues to solidify her claim as the greatest actress of her generation with consistently excellent performances, unfortunately often in films less-than-worthy of her gifts. If there's any living thespian deserving of three Academy Awards, it's her...

...but why did it have to come at the expense of Viola Davis? This was clearly her year, and hers was clearly the best performance of the five. Not to pontificate too hard on the Academy's (and Hollywood's) demographic tendencies, but when is she going to have an opportunity like this again? I wonder if this might be Oscar's most severe mistake in years.

Bracing for a Faceplant: Final Predictions for 84th Academy Awards

I'm checking out for the weekend, folks. My work here is done. At this point, there's nothing left to do but wait for the inevitable. With the nomination dominance of Hugo and The Artist, you'd think it would be easier to guess things this year. If anything, it's made it harder. Many categories (particularly the crafts) feel like coin tosses. I'm prepared to eat it this year. I think could get as many as fourteen wrong! At least I can hope for a decent show. Billy Crystal is so pro at this thing.

My official predictions are as follows:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Film Editing: The Artist
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costume Design: Anonymous
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: The Muppets ("Man or Muppet")
Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film: In Darkness
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live-Action Short: Tuba Atlantic
Best Documentary Short: Saving Face

*Notes:
-I feel like upsets are coming, I just can't pinpoint where. Rather than try to predict them, I'm just gonna tow the party line and hope for the best. But the two categories where I sense them the most are Supporting Actor and (believe it or not) Visual Effects.
-One race where I am actively predicting the upset is in Foreign Film. This doesn't so much reflect my honest guess, but I just couldn't stand to predict A Separation and end up being wrong! I learned my lesson last year, when Roger Deakins' disappointing loss left a sour taste in my mouth that resided the entire show.
-Don't know what to do about Costumes, Cinematography, or Documentary. Those could go any which way.
-Score and Art Direction are the only two locked craft categories. I could indeed get the other eight wrong! Granted, that's a worst-case scenario.

One Category at a Time: Picture

Last year, I continued my practice of narrowing down the Best Picture field by simple analysis of which films possessed the necessary three nominations (Editing, Directing, Writing) to win Best Picture. Only three films met all the requirements, and those films went on to win a combined nine Oscars, including seven of the eight major categories. So let's do more of the same:

The Artist: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Descendants: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
The Help: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
Hugo: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Moneyball: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
War Horse: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)

So, the only three that can win (by this logic, that is) are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.

CDG preview

The last guild to sound off this season is the Costume Designers Guild, which announces its winners tonight. It won't have any influence on the Oscar race because final ballots are due to the Academy today, but we can still have fun guessing what the costume designers will want to reward.

Excellence in Period Film contains four of the Oscar-nominated costumers, the odd one out being Sharen Davis' swell threads from The Help which fell pray to the grabby ruffles and frills of Anonymous with the Academy's costume branch. I'll guess that Hugo, my Oscar alternate, will rule the day, but a win for The Artist (which won the BAFTA a little more than a week ago) would be perfectly understandable and deserved.

I'm still miffed that Excellence in Fantasy Film found room for Thor and X-Men but not the year-best costumes of Captain America. At any rate, I'm guessing it'll end up being Harry Potter, simply on account of it being the best reviewed nominee of the five, and as a final tip of the hat to the series. With all the Oscar attention it gets in Art Direction, people forget that Jany Temime has indeed done outstanding work on the entire franchise as well.

Excellence in Contemporary Film usually serves only as an excuse for the guild to recognize a Best Picture contender, which leads me to believe they'll spring for The Descendants here, even if it should be Drive by a country mile.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

For ten consecutive years, the winner of the ACE Eddie has gone on to win the Academy Award for Film Editing, proving a reliable barometer for pundits. It's usually the ACE winner for Drama that shoulders the most Oscar clout, but this is a rare year in which the ACE winner for Comedy is an equally (or even more) viable contender on account of being the Best Picture frontrunner.

War Horse looking good for both Sound Oscars with win from MPSE

As I expected, it was War Horse that won the Motion Picture Sound Editors' key category of Best Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film, a category which has proved itself to be a rather accurate litmus test of which way the Sound Editing Oscar will go for the last five years.

Given the higher match-up rate between the Academy and the MPSE (compared to the lower match-up rate between the Academy and the CAS), I'm going to stick with my theory that this is a better sign for War Horse than the CAS victory was for Hugo, but I could be dead wrong.

Speaking of Hugo, it did manage a win for its only nomination from the MPSE, for Music in a Feature Film, so that may be worth noting if it does end up taking Best Sound Editing from War Horse next Sunday.

Full list of winners (plus some comments) after the cut.

CAS winner muddles Best Sound Mixing race

As always, it's a tricky year for the Sound categories, and last night's CAS victory for the mixing team of Hugo did nothing to clarify. With the CAS award and BAFTA in hand (not to mention the fact that it's clearly the most beloved nominee), it's looking good to nab the Sound Mixing prize from the Academy as well. But I'm not convinced. The CAS has only matched up with the Academy three times in the past ten years. If voters really only vote for their favourite film, wouldn't The King's Speech have won last year? The sound in the film needs to be obvious in order to win.

I'm going to continue leaning on my theory that the Motion Picture Sound Editors (who announce tonight) will prove a better gauge of both Sound categories, as I'm just not comfortable predicting a split. War Horse is just such a typical winner. That said, if the MPSE shuts War Horse out tonight, I may have to welch on my initial predictions and go with Hugo. Or, I could predict a split in the hopes of getting at least one right, rather than go all in and risk getting both wrong.

ACE winners clarify Best Film Editing race

Only one notable surprise at last night's American Cinema Editors awards. While The Artist predictably took home the Best Edited Feature prize in the Comedy/Musical category, and while Rango continued its precursor dominance in the Animated Feature category (I'd have liked to see Michael Kahn win that for Tintin), it was the subdued editing of The Descendants that beat out the Best Picture buzz of Hugo, flashier editing of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and superior editing of Moneyball in the Drama category.

ACE, CAS, WGA, MPSE preview

It's a busy weekend for guild awards looking to have their say before Oscar polls close on Tuesday.

The American Cinema Editors would be a more important announcement if it weren't for their separation of the nominees into Drama and Comedy categories. The Artist is obviously going to win in the Comedy category, while Drama is probably going the way of Hugo (although I could see it going to Dragon Tattoo as well). As for the Oscar, it'll be down to The Artist and whatever film does win for Drama, as the Oscar winner for Editing has won the ACE Eddie for the last ten years in a row.

The Cinema Audio Society only nominated two films that went on to receive Sound Mixing nods from the Academy; Hugo and Moneyball. I'm anticipating Hugo will take it from the Society, but am still sticking with War Horse to impress the Academy.

The Writers Guild of America is probably going to award Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay and Moneyball for Adapted, a pair of winners I wouldn't be surprised to see repeat at the Oscars, though I am expecting The Descendants to come out on top with the Academy.

Finally, the Motion Picture Sound Editors have a few categories in which to acknowledge the year's best sound editing. The important category in terms of Oscar is Best Sound Effects and Foley, where I'm guessing it'll be War Horse. Interesting to note: for four of the last five years, the winner of that category with the MPSE as gone on to win the Oscar for Sound Editing, and since the two Sound categories so often go to the same film, this guild is possibly a more accurate bellwether of Best Sound Mixing than the CAS.

One Category at a Time: Director

The die has been cast in the Best Picture category for several months now, but it seems that every year pundits start pontificating the possibility of a Picture/Director split. Is it just boredom with the scent of inevitability?
Is it wishful thinking from the frontrunner's detractors?
Is it skepticism that a first-time nominee can win over more established, Oscarless filmmakers? Whatever the reason, every year some people seem to come up with some excuse to predict a split. But don't do it! Splits are rare and when they do occur there's no consistent rhyme or reason as to why.

One Category at a Time: Costume Design

I'm still smarting from last year's disappointing win for Alice in Wonderland, but it should serve as a valuable lesson that flashiness trumps the film's likability in this category every time. There are varying degrees of both factors in this year's race, but first, a moment of silence for the costumes of Captain America and The Help, unfortunate snubees at the hands of frillier period extravagance...

... okay, now on to the nominees.

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

If you're no stranger to the blog you probably already know that Best Cinematography is always my favourite category at the Oscars. Not only because of my personal fascination with the craft, but because it always proves so devilishly tricky to predict. It's an area where the precursors tend to be deceptively offtrack, and ideologies on how the whole Academy votes shift from year to year. This year's slate (the only one I correctly predicted 5/5) houses five contenders which are equally plausible winners for completely different reasons. My rationales, accompanied by my favourite shot from each nominee, are outlined after the cut.

The Artist cleans up with seven BAFTAs

The BAFTAs marked the one last pit stop for The Artist before its upcoming big night at the Oscars. The film won seven awards from the Brits: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Original Score.

While no one can say that The Artist winning was unexpected, I have to say that its dominance at the BFTAs was a bit more pronounced than I might have thought. I mean, seven? I have doubts that it can translate that many of its Oscar nods into wins, but you never know. Even though I'm currently predicting different films to come out on top in Screenplay, Cinematography, and Costume Design, those are all still reasonable gets for The Artist.

The Oscar-snubbed doc Senna enjoyed a pair of wins for Best Documentary and Film Editing (I'm very pleased for editor Chris King, who should have been in the Oscar discussion last year for Exit Through the Gift Shop). Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy also took home a deuce for Best British Film and Adapted Screenplay, a bittersweet moment for Peter Straughan, whose wife and writing partner Bridget O'Connor's win came posthumously. Hugo also won for Best Production Design (unsurprising) and Sound. I do feel that those sound awards at the Oscars are ripe for the taking, but I'm sticking to my guns on War Horse.

All winners after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Original Score

Along with Best Art Direction, this is the only other craft category that I think we can assume is locked up. And I have to say that I rather like the lineup, myself. Even with the silly disqualification of Drive and the inevitable snubs of Hanna and The Ides of March, the music branch still managed to pin down five of the year's best scores.

VES winners

The Visual Effects Society Awards were held last night, where Rango cleaned up by sweeping the animation categories at the expense of Tintin's extensive and impressive effects work, which was shut out despite having six nominations. Harsh.

Oscar nominees Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Hugo, and Transformers each won two, and Captain America can nurse its Oscar snub with a consolatory win here for its excellent compositing (go 'Skinny' Steve!). Apes is the best bet for the Oscar, but it could face real heat from Hugo.

Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Feature: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture: Hugo

Visual Effects in an Animated Feature Motion Picture: Rango

One Category at a Time: Art Direction

There are a number of categories this year where I have reasonable doubts about my predicted winner - too many categories. This is not one of them. There is a single obvious choice on which any sane Oscar-watcher should bet the bank, but it's only fair to give the other nominees their congrats:

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

As it is with Best Original Screenplay, the crop of Adapted Screenplay nominees this year includes the two legitimately best adapted screenplays of the year, but also a couple I could have done without. It's still a good lineup on the whole, and the race between the two frontrunners is just close enough for me to have an active rooting interest in this category.

Art Directors Guild winners

Production Design in a Period Film: Hugo

Production Design in a Fantasy Film: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2

Production Design in a Contemporary Film: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Glad to see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo get its due in the Contemporary category for Donald Graham Burt's terrific sets, fending off Best Picture nominees The Descendants and Extremely Loud. The other two winners are pretty much expected, and might represent the best bets for Oscar's Art Direction trophy. I go back and forth on whether it's Harry Potter or The Artist that's next in line behind Hugo. It's probably a moot point anyway.