One Category at a Time: Art Direction

As far as I see it, the category (and by association, Costume Design) come down to two films: The King's Speech and Alice in Wonderland.

One the one hand, Oscar voters often go for the most noticeable production design, as was certainly the case last with Avatar, in which case you might give an edge to Alice in Wonderland. On the other, the Academy really likes The King's Speech, and a prestige period drama is hard for voters to turn down. Still, Alice just seems like a real threat in this category where voters sometimes mistake ''most'' for ''best''. I think I'll stick with the Best Picture winner on this one, for the production design really is quite lovely and thematically appropriate, but I'll hang myself it ends up being Tim Burton's movie. Not because I'll have guessed wrong, but because that movie is seriously hideous.

Sad to say, Guy Dyas' healthy run with various critics groups including the BFCA will not avail him with AMPAS. I think his work on Inception is the most deserving, but contemporary films never win this category, and the design really is more of a contemporary entry than a fantasy outing.

Also, I wonder if next year the Academy might give this award to Deathly Hallows Part 2. This is one category where the Harry Potter series has been more than adequately recognized, and if the franchise is going to win something, it might be here. Stay tuned 'til 2012.

Congrats also to Jess Gonchar for his first nomination with True Grit. He hasn't a hope in hell of winning, due to all those exteriors. But that won't cheapen the nomination, which is richly deserved.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: The Illusionist