One Category at a Time: Picture

Last year, I continued my practice of narrowing down the Best Picture field by simple analysis of which films possessed the necessary three nominations (Editing, Directing, Writing) to win Best Picture. Only three films met all the requirements, and those films went on to win a combined nine Oscars, including seven of the eight major categories. So let's do more of the same:

The Artist: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Descendants: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
The Help: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
Hugo: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Moneyball: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
War Horse: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)

So, the only three that can win (by this logic, that is) are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.

One Category at a Time: Costume Design

I'm still smarting from last year's disappointing win for Alice in Wonderland, but it should serve as a valuable lesson that flashiness trumps the film's likability in this category every time. There are varying degrees of both factors in this year's race, but first, a moment of silence for the costumes of Captain America and The Help, unfortunate snubees at the hands of frillier period extravagance...

... okay, now on to the nominees.

One Category at a Time: Actress

Before the SAG Awards dropped I was pretty conflicted in this category. Based on the distribution of precursor attention, it seemed that we had a tight three woman race for the Oscar, but now that the Actors have had their say, it looks like the frontrunner has a more comfortable margin. The Oscar lineup is mostly the same as SAG’s, except that Rooney Mara (one of the best performances of the year) slid in over Tilda Swinton (THE best performance of the year!). Oy vey. She really is the anti-Meryl Streep; consistently brilliant performances every year but rarely an Oscar nod to show for it. I suppose we should be thankful on her behalf that she has one for Michael Clayton, because she honestly doesn’t care about awards. Right on, Tilda.

Anyway, the nominees – all five of whom I predicted for nominations back in April!:

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

What is it with this category? For four consecutive years now it's housed two nominees from the same film. Is the actors branch really so stretched for options? This year it's two from The Help (accounting for 50% of the film's nomination tally), and they still couldn't include the best supporting female from the movie, Bryce Dallas Howard. At any rate, having costar nominees is always an interesting question mark as to how that will affect the overall outcome.

SAG winners

Stunt Ensemble: Harry Potter

That's all well and good, but why wasn't Mission: Impossible nominated?

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer,
Beginners

Hard to see how Plummer loses this on Oscar night, but the sudden appearance of Max von Sydow (in a Best Picture nominee, no less) has made me wary.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer,
The Help

Yep. Looks like the Oscar's hers. Nice speech too.

Well, damn. Only fifteen minutes in and two of the five awards I care about are done. Am I gonna have to wait an hour and a half until we hit another movie category?

Loved seeing Dick Van Dyke take the stage to introduce and narrate the tribute reel to Lifetime Achievement honouree Mary Tyler Moore. Less thrilled about listening to Mary prattle on about her showbiz name in her speech.

Actor: Jean Dujardin,
The Artist

Well well well, it looks like Harvey's been at it again. Did that pitch perfect Globes speech give Dujardin that extra push here? Where does this put us in terms of the Oscar conversation?

Actress: Viola Davis,
The Help

YES! I was so worried this was going to Meryl. But that acceptance speech. Wow. If that can't net her the Oscar I don't know what can.

Ensemble: The Help

Inarguably the best of the lot.

Well, I BOMBED my predictions (three for six if you include Stunt Ensemble, because why not?), but I'll confess that I was somewhat hedging my bets by predicting Meryl and The Artist; I just really wanted to see Viola and The Help win their respective categories, which they did, so yay!

Tonight marks the third consecutive televised wins for Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer. They are the smart Oscar bets, although I have an unsettling suspicion that Max von Sydow could sneak in the backdoor on Plummer. More on that later this week.

The Best Actress tiebreaker fell in favour of Viola Davis, and it was a huge win because it gave her another chance to move the room to tears with a staggering acceptance speech. Believe it or not, those can make a difference. It's PR gold that can tip the scales in your favour if you do it right, and in her two trips to the podium this season, Viola has NAILED it both times. I think the Oscar is her's to lose.

But what about Best Actor? I said that if someone was going to make a move on Clooney it would have to happen here, and it did. Clooney has the BFCA and the Drama Globe, Dujardin has the SAG and the Comedy Globe. It's worth noting that a comedic performance hasn't won the Best Actor Oscar since 1999 when Roberto Benigni ludicrously won for Life is Beautiful, but it's also worth noting that he also won the SAG and was backed by Weinstein (Mirimax, that is). I'm gonna have to think about this one.

My Awards nominations for 2011

Here's a one-stop recap of my own annual awards. I'll post the winners tomorrow.

The nomination leaders are Drive & We Need to Talk About Kevin with 8 apiece, The Tree of Life with 6, and Hell and Back Again, The Help, & A Separation with 5 apiece.

Best Picture
Drive
Hell and Back Again
A Separation
The Tree of Life
We Need to Talk About Kevin

My Awards nominations: Actress

Not as packed as last year's stellar slate, but I still had some tough decisions to make Here are the five Leading Actresses who made the cut:

VIOLA DAVIS in The Help:

Davis' subdued expressiveness communicates a great deal of fear and sadness, but also a gradual self-realization and growing estem which gives the character her arc. Her exposition of backstory carefully seeps through even when it's not yet there on the page.

ROONEY MARA in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo:

Mara is gripping and magnetic as the misanthropic investigator who can dish it out as bad as she gets it, if not worse. The performance is mannered, distinctive, and ballsy. Mara embraces Salander's emotional maladjustment with alarming confidence, which is what makes her so fun to watch!

ELIZABETH OLSEN in Martha Marcy May Marlene:

Olsen is superbly ambiguous, every facial tick revealing unspoken anguish and uncertainty. Her internalization of an indoctrinated mind at war with itself informs her external struggle to reassimilate with her family and society, which feels painfully authentic as a result.

TILDA SWINTON in We Need to Talk About Kevin:

Swinton is becoming the anti-Meryl-Streep in that she's giving awards worthy performances every year that never seem to get awards attention. That'll hopefully change with this quietly controlled turn. She owns every moment with her subtle command of understated but deep-running emotion.

CHARLIZE THERON in Young Adult:

Theron's thorny, darkly comedic portrayal of an alcoholic, emotionally juvenille trash novelist teems with precise, bitchy mannerisms. She paints a caustic collage of depression, anxiety, and severe psychological immaturity; a woman (rather, girl?) drowning in her own bitterness.

Just missed: Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, Stephanie Sigman in Miss Bala,
Meryl Streep in The Irion Lady, Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

My Awards nominations: Supporting Actress

Not the strongest year, in my opinion. These Supporting Actress performances are good, but none of them truly stands out to me as an obvious winner. I'm actually interested to find out which one I'll decide upon!

JESSICA CHASTAIN in The Help:

I could just as easily slotted her down for her graceful work on The Tree of Life, but she had more to chew on here; her character bubbles with infectious eccentricity to suppress her messy and complicated feelings of grief and shame.

ELLE FANNING in Super 8:

For being in a second-rate monster movie, she is surprisingly memorable. Her puppy love affair with Joe ratchets up the cute factor, and her rehearsal scene for the movie-within-a-movie seems to be the unanimous highlight of the film.

BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD in The Help:

She takes up the thankless task of playing the waspish queen bee of Jackson's privileged elite, an easy-to-hate but tricky-to-perform character in whom can be detected a frighteningly human element. Her final scene = perfection.

MELANIE LAURENT in Beginners:

Laurent is softly radiant as the love interest in this melancholy romance. You can't help but smile at her light comic touch, nor can you help but sigh at the fragility of her tender heart. Exquisitely supports the tone of the film.

CAREY MULLIGAN in Shame:

Mulligan shows us her range with a spikier, worldlier character than the naïve nymph that first brought her to our attention in An Education. She exceptionally plays the clingy, complex relationship with her sex-addicted brother.

Just missed:
Jessica Chastain in The Tree of Life, Evan Rachel Wood The Ides of March,
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants, Cate Blanchett in Hanna,
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus

My Awards nominations: Ensemble

The best Acting Ensembles of the year are:

50/50:

Each member of Adam's social circle responds to his illness in a different way. This kind of character-driven film requires the very best from its ensemble, and all players nail their respective roles with naturalistic ease.

The Help:

The sincerity of the acting sells the sentimentality. Each performance is sharply realized by a splendid cast. All actors bring something different to the table, resulting in a rich blend of diverse characters.

The Ides of March:

Perhaps the greatest compliment that can be said of the supporting players is that no one of them stands out. They're all doing precise and distinct character work that always hits the target without screaming for attention.

A Separation:

There's not a mediocre performance to be found in this movie. Every character is superbly played with authentic dimensionality, both through solo scenes and when interacting with each other. A perfect, organic ensemble performance.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy:

Oldman and his tightly knit supporting cast (which includes the likes of Colin Firth, John Hurt, and Tom Hardy) give a collective performance that is quietly controlled, so as to keep the focus on the complex screenplay.

Just missed: Beginners, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris

My Award nominations: Costume Design

It's that time of year again. Time to think back on the dozens of films seen in 2011 and decide upon the best of the best in all the usual categories. As always, I'll be announcing my nominees for the my awards one day at a time, leading up to the 23rd (the eve of the Oscar nominations) when my winners will be announced.

Today's category is Costume Design:

Albert Nobbs (Pierre-Yves Gayraud):
Subtle period details flesh out the Upstairs/Downstairs fashions of 19th century Ireland. The cuts of Close's and MacTeer's outfits are important if we're to believe they could be passed off as men.

The Artist (Mark Bridges):
The glitz and glamour of old Hollywood translates very well to black and white on account of Bridges' stylish suits and flapper attire. I love the progression of Berenice Bejo's look as she rises to stardom.

Captain America (Anna B. Sheppard):
A credible meld of period authenticity and fantasy stylings; the convincing evolution of Cap's costume, Red Skull's angular trench coat, and the Hydra uniforms all stand out.

The Help (Sharen Davis):
Splashy and colourful when they need to be, but toned back when appropriate. Emma Stone's earthy colours fit her character much better than would the hot pinks and yellows donned by Jackson's priveleged socialites.

Hugo (Sandy Powell):
A suitable dash of Parisian flare adorn the clothes of the train station's inhabitants. Hugo's outgrown clothing and Isabelle's jaunty beret are perfectly specific for their characters.



Just missed:
J. Edgar, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Review - The Help

Capitalizing on a loll in enticing summer theater fare, The Help offers a swell counter-programming alternative to filmgoers tired of the deluge of loud blockbusters. It's clearly struck a chord with audiences, hurtling Rise of the Planet of the Apes in its second week of release. In the interest of seeing what all the fuss is about, I took it in today and rifled off a brief review.

Fresh-faced college graduate and aspiring writer Skeeter (Emma Stone) returns to her Mississippi hometown of Jackson and is spurred by the old-fashioned racist attitudes of her peers to compose an exposing series of interviews with the community's black housemaids. Of course, finding willing interviewees among the apprehensive help proves a challenge, but she eventually makes an ally in the at-first reluctant Aibileen (Viola Davis), and their boat-rocking project discreetly lifts off.

One Category at a Time: Best Cinematography

As soon as the Tree of Life trailer hit the Internet, Oscar pundits began proposing that this year's Best Cinematography award may be Emmanuel Lubezki's to lose. The shots featured in the trailer are indeed gorgeous - just the sort of thing they usually go for in this category. Lubezki should already have an Oscar for Children of Men. Can the four-time nominee finally collect his due? Or are we heading for a repeat of this past year's Best Cinematography disaster?

David Fincher's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo remains a question mark in many categories. His last two films have been nominated for their cinematography, but they were Academy-friendly Best Picture contenders. If The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo can manage to impress AMPAS on the same level as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button or The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth may see his second nomination in as many years.

Stephan Goldblatt will bring life to the South of the 1960s in The Help. He's been nominated before for shooting a similar time and place in The Prince of Tides, and hopefully will be able to bring the same magic to this project. But The Help doesn't strike me as a typical nominee in this field (although it's hard to judge without having seen any footage). It'll probably need serious Best Picture heat to make it in here.

I like to assume that the always extraordinary two-time winner Robert Richardson only just missed a nomination this past year for his awesome work on Shutter Island, but he was probably further down the list due to the film's unpopularity. Perhaps Martin Scorsese's Hugo Cabret will be more to the Academy's liking. It'll surely have lots of wonderful sets and costumes to show off. Being one of the top DPs in the business with seven nods to his name, Richardson must always be considered a contender.

Another two-time winner, Janusz Kaminski, has a strong bid this year courtesy of Steven Spielberg's War Horse. Both of Kaminski's Oscars came for shooting Spielberg war pictures (Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan). Come to think of it, all of Spielberg's Oscars came for those two movies as well. I'd say that's a pretty successful collaboration, and good reason to predict Kaminski will pick up his fifth career nomination.

Predicted five:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo Cabret
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Coriolanus, Cowboys and Aliens, Harry Potter 7, Moneyball, Super 8, Water for Elephants.

One Category at a Time: Best Art Direction

There are lots of past Oscar winners and nominees in the mix this year. Among them are Martin Scorsese's frequent production designer Dante Ferreti and set dresser Franscesca Lo Shiavo (winners for The Aviator and Sweeney Todd). With Scorsese's Hugo Cabret, they'll recreate 1930's Paris. With Rob Richardson behind the camera, you know the sets are gonna get the best possible presentation.

Will this finally be the year the Academy awards Stuart Craig for the Harry Potter series? Having been nominated for three of the seven films thus far, including last year's installment, many are suggesting that AMPAS may want to tip their hat to the franchise with a win, and this upcoming year is their last chance to do it, and no category would be more appropriate than Art Direction.

Jack Fisk and Jim Erickson (nominated for There Will Be Blood) are heading the production design and set decoration of Water for Elephants, based on the bestseller set on a Depression era traveling circus. The period detail of 1930s America and the sparkly glitz of the Greatest Show on Earth might prove a winning combination with the art directors branch.

Finally, Mark Ricker and Rena DeAngelo will produce the look and feel of 1960s small-town Mississippi in The Help. DeAngelo's Emmy-winning work on Mad Men proves she has the detail of the period down pat, and if it ends up a popular film, design nominations could fall into place.

War films don't intuitively come to mind when one thinks about art direction, but it requires just as much work and creativity. Rick Carter (who won two years ago for Avatar) is designing the sets for Steven Spielberg's War Horse. If the movie turns out to be a big hit with the Academy, a nomination here would not surprise me.

Predicted five:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Help
Hugo Cabret
War Horse
Water for Elephants

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, Captain America, The Conspirator, A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Pirates 4, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Tree of Life.

One Category at a Time: Best Costume Design

This is always a depressing category for me. Five years running the winner here has been a terrible movie. That may not bother me so much if I ever thought the costumes were deserving, but the Academy's "more is more" philosophy often clashes violently with my own tastes. But I remain hopeful we might see a film of quality (or at least quality costumes) reclaim the throne this year.

Sandy Powell will be looking for her tenth career nomination via Martin Scorsese's Hugo Cabret, set in lavish 1930s Paris. Powell is a versatile designer who excels no matter the film's period or genre, and she is certainly respected by the costume branch.

Michael O'Connor won this category a couple of year's ago for The Duchess, and could be back for another British corset-fest in the form of Jane Eyre. But has it been released too early? It may well be forgotten by year's end, but you can always count on the costume branch to throw a bone to forgotten movies (I Am Love for instance).

Jacqueline West, last nominated a couple of years ago for Benjamin Button, has two solid opportunities this year in The Tree of Life and Water for Elephants. In spite of its spring release, I'm guessing she stands a better shot with the latter, which allows her to combine the sparkly glitz of the circus with the dusty drabness of Depression era America.

David Cronenberg's sister, Denise, has been designing the costumes for all his movies since The Fly in 1986. She has her most awards-friendly project to date with A Dangerous Method, Cronenberg's period piece about Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. If the film catches on with the Academy, I wouldn't be surprised to see its design elements earn some love.

Sharen Davis is no stranger to styles of the 1960s, having earned Oscar nominations for Ray and Dreamgirls. She'll be outfitting the many women of The Help, set in 1960s Mississippi, with period-appropriate and class-defining threads. Again, if the movie tickles the Academy's fancy, I'd say she has a decent shot at nomination number three.

Predicted five:
A Dangerous Method
The Help
Hugo Cabret
Jane Eyre
Water for Elephants

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, The Conspirator, My Week with Marilyn, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Tree of Life, Wuthering Heights.

One Category at a Time: Best Supporting Actress

I'll admit to feeling kinda proud (and/or lucky) of nailing three of last year's five Best Supporting Actress nominees from a year out, especially going out on a limb for a young actress no one had ever heard of before named Hailee Steinfeld. Let's see if I can repeat the feat.

One contender who's already had her name bandied about as a nominee at next year's Oscars is the legendary Vanessa Redgrave for her turn as Volumnia in Ralph Feinnes modern-day adaptation of Shakespeare's little-seen Coriolanus. Redgrave has six career nominations going all the way back to 1967 and one win for Julia in 1977, but has not been nominated since Howards End (1992). As a respected veteran and master of her craft, a juicy supporting role might be just what she needs to reenter Oscar's graces.

George Clooney's political drama The Ides of March features a stacked ensemble with potential for multiple acting nominations. The most notable female presence is Marisa Tomei, who, after receiving years of flack following her surprise Oscar win for My Cousin Vinny, has done a great job of keeping her career fresh and interesting by taking on challenging and varied roles that have subsequently earned her another two nominations. Might she stand out in a strongly male-dominated cast?

How about representation from a strongly female-dominated cast? The Help features an eclectic and promising one, not to mention potential as lite Best Picture appeal. I'm taking my chances on Viola Davis, who broke out onto the big screen with a nomination two years ago for Doubt. She plays a black servant in 1960s Mississippi who makes an unlikely friendship with young white college grad.

An ingenue who you might argue is due for a nomination is Scarlet Johansson. She costars alongside Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo, Cameron Crowe's first narrative feature in six years, as the wife of a man who uproots his family so that they can revive an old zoo. Crowe has always written good supporting parts for actresses, so here's hoping Johansson will do well by him.

One actress who's poised to explode in a big way this year is Jessica Chastain, starring in no less than six films, including the aforementioned Coriolanus and The Help. But the one most people are excited about is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life. Will she be nominated for this, or for something else? Maybe for Take Shelter or The Fields? Or maybe not at all? Her name should be pretty ubiquitous this year, and that's always an advantage to staying in the awards discussion.

Predicted five:
Viola Davis, The Help
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus or The Whistleblower
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life or Take Shelter or The Help
Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March
Scarlet Johansson, We Bought a Zoo

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 1)

Now that the 2010/11 Oscar season is a comfortably distant memory, I suppose I'd better toss up some early guesses as to who the nominees will be for next year's awards. I must confess that I'm struggling to fill my ten Best Picture predictions somewhat. There only appears to be a handful of awards-bait projects lined up for a 2011 release, and I somehow doubt that we'll see an animated feature or summer blockbuster up for the big prize this year. I gladly invite tiny independent films to surprise me, because for the moment, I can't pretend I'm that excited about many titles this year.

But on to the predictions. The biopic has always been a decent threat for Oscar's crown, and one with potential is David Croneneberg's A Dangerous Method, starring Michael Fassbender and Viggo Mortensen as pioneering psychiatrists Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud. The screenplay was adapted by Christopher Hampton from his own play, an approach which netted him an Oscar over 20 years ago for Dangerous Liaisons. It's period setting and focus on historical figures makes this project prime bait, but... with David Cronenberg at the helm? I'm actually a bit intrigued.

Alexander Payne hasn't made a feature film since winning his Oscar six years ago for Sideways. His long-awaited followup, The Descendants, headlines George Clooney as a powerful landowner in Hawaii who tries to bond with his two wild daughters in the wake of a tragic accident involving his wife. Sounds like a downer, right? Wrong. The novel on which the film is based has been praised by critics for its balance of audacious comedy with emotional heft, a style for which Payne has a proven talent.

Getting back to more traditional Oscar bait, it's hard to argue that Dreamworks' upcoming take on the popular novel The Help seems to fit the bill. Set in a 1960s Mississippi, it tells of an aspiring writer (Easy A's Emma Stone) who shocks her tightly-knit Southern community by interviewing African Americans who have spent their lives in servitude of the wealthy white. Gently rocking the boat on racism as appeased Oscar before (even as recently as 2009 with The Blind Side), and the film's formidable female ensemble sure looks enticing to me.

Besides The Descendants, George Clooney is involved in another potential awards pony this year called The Ides of March, in which he stars and directs. He also co-wrote and co-produced it with Grant Heslov, the man alongside whom he was nominated for Good Night, and Good Luck (2005). The film is a political drama also starring Ryan Gosling, Paul Giamatti, Marissa Tomei, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Evan Rachel Wood, and Max Minghella. Can you say, "SAG Ensemble award"?

Will Meryl Streep finally get that third Oscar this year? It's certainly a possibility given that she'll be staring as Margaret Thatcher, Britain's first – and heretofore, only – female Prime Minister, in The Iron Lady. Having the air of "Importance" is always helpful when courting Oscar, and this subject offers a plethora of such "Important" issues to touch on. Combine that with what many are anticipating will be yet another charismatic performance from Streep, and I'd say there's potential.

Five more Best Picture predictions coming Monday.