The makeup branch is the only one in the Academy that still employs the old fashioned bakeoff system to narrow its field to seven contenders before eventually deciding upon the final three (the visual effects has upped their shortlist to ten before nominating five). This branch is notorious for going their own way. The big eyebrow-raiser for me is that all four of this summer's super hero blockbusters (X-Men, Thor, Green Lantern, and Captain America, all of which sport nomination-worthy makeup) were left off the list. Seriously; What. Is. Up. With. That?
Also missing is the extensive aging work on J. Edgar. Pure speculation on my part, but I'm guessing the less-than-stellar work done on Armie Hammer proved a key stumbling block.
Sliding in is Harry Potter, which I'm beginning to think stands a chance at not only being nominated in this category for the first time, but maybe even winning as a last-chance tip of the hat to the franchise. It would be a nice bit of recognition for Nick Dudman, who's done more than his fair share of excellent work for the series.
Makeup finalists
Albert Nobbs
Anonymous
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
