CAS nominees

The Cinema Audio Society nominees for 2011 are:

Hanna (Roland Winke, Christopher Scarabosio, Craig Berkey, Andrew Dudman)
Hugo (John Midgley, Tom Fleischman, Simon Rhodes)
Moneyball (Ed Novick, Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Brad Haenel)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Lee Orloff, Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes, Alan Meyerson)
Super 8 (Mark Ulano, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Dan Wallin)

We can usually count on the CAS to throw a curveball into the Best Sound Mixing race. Last year, they nominated Shutter Island when no one was looking, correlative to this year's surprise nominations for Moneyball and Joe Wright's Hanna.

Transformers shafted by CAS. Bumblebee doesn't like the sound of that.

But the surprise inclusions aren't nearly as informative as the surprise snubs. Transformers' unjustifiable omission is a discouraging sign. Last year, the guild prompted minor outrage by ignoring TRON Legacy's sensational mix, a film which then proceeded to be blanked by the Academy (although it did pop up in Sound Editing).
It may be that Transformers is on the bubble here more than I would have imagined.

Instead, the critically trashed blockbuster they decided to go with was the fourth Pirates installment, which gives me an uneasy vibe. Something's been tickling my mind these last couple of weeks that Pirates might end up with an unexpectedly strong showing in the Sound/Sound/Effects categories. It already feels like a threat to swipe a vfx nomination, and this mention for its sound only scaffolds its hopes. The Motion Picture Sound Editors announce their nominees tomorrow, perhaps lending some clarity to this murky situation.

VES nominees

Of the potential Oscar contenders, Harry Potter and Transformers lead the field with five nominations a piece, but the actual leader is Tintin with six, which was left of the Academy's shortlist. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is close behind with four.

There's a conspicuous absence of The Tree of Life, which I thought should have won the Supporting Visual Effects category by a country mile, but alas. I guess Hugo will win that one. Like I said when the Academy released there slate of ten finalists, Pirates feels like a very real spoiler threat, despite eking only one nod from the guild.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Feature
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Should win / Will win
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
Anonymous Should win
Hugo Will win
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Source Code
War Horse

VFX field whittled down to ten

The visual effects branch have refined last month's 15-film shortlist to a more manageable ten. All five of my predicted nominees made the cut as well as a couple others (Captain America and Mission Impossible) that would also make fine nominees if I do say so myself.

Super 8 was in my sixth predicted slot, but having failed to make the cut, I think the next most likely spoiler is Pirates 4. Every film from the franchise has been nominated here, so I'd watch out for a potential surprise.

Visual Effects shortlist
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

One Category at a Time: Best Makeup

It's hard to tell what direction this branch will go on a yearly basis. They really do nominate what they feel constitutes the best work, and pay little attention to critical reception or Best Picture buzz. And to be honest, that's the way it aught to be. So who stands a chance of getting in this year?

Given their openness to nominating films that the critics really don't give a damn about, I haven't got a problem in predicting a film like Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - one which I doubt will fare too well with cinephiles - to earn a nod. Two of the previous three Pirates films made it in here, and with past winners Joel Harlow and Peter King on board, I imagine the makeup work will be great.

A call I'm less confident in but still willing to make is A Dangerous Method, David Cronenberg's look at the lives and work of Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. The film's makeup and hair designer Stephan Dupuis already has an Oscar to his name, albeit for his more grotesque transformative magic on Cronenberg's The Fly. Can he follow up his sole nomination from 25 years ago with another one for what we can only assume will be more subtle work?

And what about all those comic-book-character-based blockbusters coming out this summer? Surely they can't all be passed over by the Academy. Captain America's WWII setting may allow Lisa Westcott and David White to cook up some realistic war-related makeup to compliment what will probably be their more memorable creation; Hugo Weaving's transformation into Red Skull.

Predicted three:
Captain America: The First Avenger
A Dangerous Method
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Also consider: Cowboys and Aliens, The Green Lantern, Harry Potter 7, The Iron Lady, Thor, War Horse.

One Category at a Time: Best Visual Effects

The extra two slots added to the Best Visual Effects field last year have given us prognosticators more degrees of freedom to work with, and give new hope to some films that probably wouldn't be in the conversation otherwise.

Films like Hereafter, which was by no means a big effects film, but used its effects wisely in a solid supporting role and earned a nomination for it. Perhaps a film that can emulate that this year is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which apparently will be sporting dinosaurs in certain sequences and perhaps other shots that may require interesting effects work. Consider this a reckless wild card pick.

The Harry Potter franchise's final installment lands this summer. Having been nominated for two previous Potter films, including last year's The Deathly Hallows: Part 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect branch give Tim Burke and company one final kick at the can. Maybe the Academy will feel inclined to let them win as a way of honouring the series?

There's always one or two huge summer blockbusters that make it in here, and this summer is at no shortage of effects-heavy potential blockbusters. But many of them are comic book adaptations, which only occasionally hit with the Academy. They tend to be kinder to original material, and that's where I give J.J. Abrams' effects team for Super 8 (who've already proven themselves on Star Trek) an edge over the competition.

But sequels can sometimes score here if their predecessors did, in which case Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides may be sitting pretty. All three previous Pirates films have been nominated here, even as the critics have become progressively less kind to them. The extra two slots are a benefit for films that might otherwise be sunk by bad reviews.

Finally, Joe Letteri et. al. at Weta Digital, who have worked such wonders on the Lord of the Rings trilogy and most recently Avatar, are heading Steven Spielberg's take on Tintin. But will the effects branch go for a completely motion-captured film? Avatar had enough live-action footage to convince the Academy that its effects were effects, but they've never given a second glance to any of Robert Zemekis' motion-capture endeavours. Might they consider Tintin just a glorified animated film?

Predicted five:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
The Tree of Life

Also consider: Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, Green Lantern, Hugo Cabret, Transformers 3, X-Men: First Class, Thor.