Sunday Top Ten - Pet Peeves of the 2011-12 Oscar season

This little custom of mine has become a nice form of post-Oscar therapy for me. It's perfect for bringing some closure to the season and releasing the pressure valve on the season's many frustrations. You may note that I didn't include any of this year's big nomination snubs, and there were plenty to choose from: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy for Art Direction, The Tree of Life for Visual Effects, Captain America for Original Song... but I came to terms with those a month ago, so it's more useful for me to unload my other awards season woes, some of which you might share, others you might disagree with. You'll have to keep reading to find out.

Oscar Post-mortem

Where to begin on last Sunday's Academy Awards?

Obviously The Artist was the big winner, taking five trophies including Best Picture, Director, Actor. Hugo matched that tally with five craft wins, while the dreadful Iron Lady won two (gak!), and the list of one-win wonders includes The Help, Beginners, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Muppets (becoming the first Muppet movie to win an Oscar! YAY!)

Surprises were few and far between, and those that we did get were decidedly unpleasant ones if you ask me. The biggest of said unpleasant surprises was no doubt Meryl Streep's victory in Best Actress, but don't let me give you the impression that I'm vindictive. I'm as big a fan of the lady as the next man. Year after year, Streep continues to solidify her claim as the greatest actress of her generation with consistently excellent performances, unfortunately often in films less-than-worthy of her gifts. If there's any living thespian deserving of three Academy Awards, it's her...

...but why did it have to come at the expense of Viola Davis? This was clearly her year, and hers was clearly the best performance of the five. Not to pontificate too hard on the Academy's (and Hollywood's) demographic tendencies, but when is she going to have an opportunity like this again? I wonder if this might be Oscar's most severe mistake in years.

Bracing for a Faceplant: Final Predictions for 84th Academy Awards

I'm checking out for the weekend, folks. My work here is done. At this point, there's nothing left to do but wait for the inevitable. With the nomination dominance of Hugo and The Artist, you'd think it would be easier to guess things this year. If anything, it's made it harder. Many categories (particularly the crafts) feel like coin tosses. I'm prepared to eat it this year. I think could get as many as fourteen wrong! At least I can hope for a decent show. Billy Crystal is so pro at this thing.

My official predictions are as follows:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Film Editing: The Artist
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costume Design: Anonymous
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: The Muppets ("Man or Muppet")
Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film: In Darkness
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live-Action Short: Tuba Atlantic
Best Documentary Short: Saving Face

*Notes:
-I feel like upsets are coming, I just can't pinpoint where. Rather than try to predict them, I'm just gonna tow the party line and hope for the best. But the two categories where I sense them the most are Supporting Actor and (believe it or not) Visual Effects.
-One race where I am actively predicting the upset is in Foreign Film. This doesn't so much reflect my honest guess, but I just couldn't stand to predict A Separation and end up being wrong! I learned my lesson last year, when Roger Deakins' disappointing loss left a sour taste in my mouth that resided the entire show.
-Don't know what to do about Costumes, Cinematography, or Documentary. Those could go any which way.
-Score and Art Direction are the only two locked craft categories. I could indeed get the other eight wrong! Granted, that's a worst-case scenario.

IFMCA fall big time for Williams

My two favourite musical scores of the year, War Horse and Tintin by the immortal John Williams, aren't likely to wrestle the Best Original Score Oscar away from The Artist on Sunday, but they did manage to win four awards from the International Film Music Critics, while the man himself additionally won Composer of the Year. It's a nice group of winners all around, which includes Cliff Martinez's Academy-DQed score for Drive.

FILM SCORE OF THE YEAR
War Horse, John Williams

FILM COMPOSER OF THE YEAR
John Williams

One Category at a Time: Picture

Last year, I continued my practice of narrowing down the Best Picture field by simple analysis of which films possessed the necessary three nominations (Editing, Directing, Writing) to win Best Picture. Only three films met all the requirements, and those films went on to win a combined nine Oscars, including seven of the eight major categories. So let's do more of the same:

The Artist: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Descendants: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
The Help: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
Hugo: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Moneyball: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
War Horse: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)

So, the only three that can win (by this logic, that is) are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

For ten consecutive years, the winner of the ACE Eddie has gone on to win the Academy Award for Film Editing, proving a reliable barometer for pundits. It's usually the ACE winner for Drama that shoulders the most Oscar clout, but this is a rare year in which the ACE winner for Comedy is an equally (or even more) viable contender on account of being the Best Picture frontrunner.

ACE winners clarify Best Film Editing race

Only one notable surprise at last night's American Cinema Editors awards. While The Artist predictably took home the Best Edited Feature prize in the Comedy/Musical category, and while Rango continued its precursor dominance in the Animated Feature category (I'd have liked to see Michael Kahn win that for Tintin), it was the subdued editing of The Descendants that beat out the Best Picture buzz of Hugo, flashier editing of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and superior editing of Moneyball in the Drama category.

ACE, CAS, WGA, MPSE preview

It's a busy weekend for guild awards looking to have their say before Oscar polls close on Tuesday.

The American Cinema Editors would be a more important announcement if it weren't for their separation of the nominees into Drama and Comedy categories. The Artist is obviously going to win in the Comedy category, while Drama is probably going the way of Hugo (although I could see it going to Dragon Tattoo as well). As for the Oscar, it'll be down to The Artist and whatever film does win for Drama, as the Oscar winner for Editing has won the ACE Eddie for the last ten years in a row.

The Cinema Audio Society only nominated two films that went on to receive Sound Mixing nods from the Academy; Hugo and Moneyball. I'm anticipating Hugo will take it from the Society, but am still sticking with War Horse to impress the Academy.

The Writers Guild of America is probably going to award Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay and Moneyball for Adapted, a pair of winners I wouldn't be surprised to see repeat at the Oscars, though I am expecting The Descendants to come out on top with the Academy.

Finally, the Motion Picture Sound Editors have a few categories in which to acknowledge the year's best sound editing. The important category in terms of Oscar is Best Sound Effects and Foley, where I'm guessing it'll be War Horse. Interesting to note: for four of the last five years, the winner of that category with the MPSE as gone on to win the Oscar for Sound Editing, and since the two Sound categories so often go to the same film, this guild is possibly a more accurate bellwether of Best Sound Mixing than the CAS.

One Category at a Time: Director

The die has been cast in the Best Picture category for several months now, but it seems that every year pundits start pontificating the possibility of a Picture/Director split. Is it just boredom with the scent of inevitability?
Is it wishful thinking from the frontrunner's detractors?
Is it skepticism that a first-time nominee can win over more established, Oscarless filmmakers? Whatever the reason, every year some people seem to come up with some excuse to predict a split. But don't do it! Splits are rare and when they do occur there's no consistent rhyme or reason as to why.

One Category at a Time: Costume Design

I'm still smarting from last year's disappointing win for Alice in Wonderland, but it should serve as a valuable lesson that flashiness trumps the film's likability in this category every time. There are varying degrees of both factors in this year's race, but first, a moment of silence for the costumes of Captain America and The Help, unfortunate snubees at the hands of frillier period extravagance...

... okay, now on to the nominees.

One Category at a Time: Actor

There will be plenty of suspense leading up to the opening of this envelope on Oscar night. The writing seemed to be on the wall early in the season, but a turning point at the SAG Awards had signaled a tight two-horse race (one made a little less tight by the BAFTAs this past Sunday). The other three nominees will have to sit back and enjoy the show. At least a couple of them can can count themselves lucky that they managed to squeak into the slate when high profile hopefuls Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Fassbender were somewhat surprisingly shut out along with the films they represented.

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

If you're no stranger to the blog you probably already know that Best Cinematography is always my favourite category at the Oscars. Not only because of my personal fascination with the craft, but because it always proves so devilishly tricky to predict. It's an area where the precursors tend to be deceptively offtrack, and ideologies on how the whole Academy votes shift from year to year. This year's slate (the only one I correctly predicted 5/5) houses five contenders which are equally plausible winners for completely different reasons. My rationales, accompanied by my favourite shot from each nominee, are outlined after the cut.

The Artist cleans up with seven BAFTAs

The BAFTAs marked the one last pit stop for The Artist before its upcoming big night at the Oscars. The film won seven awards from the Brits: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Original Score.

While no one can say that The Artist winning was unexpected, I have to say that its dominance at the BFTAs was a bit more pronounced than I might have thought. I mean, seven? I have doubts that it can translate that many of its Oscar nods into wins, but you never know. Even though I'm currently predicting different films to come out on top in Screenplay, Cinematography, and Costume Design, those are all still reasonable gets for The Artist.

The Oscar-snubbed doc Senna enjoyed a pair of wins for Best Documentary and Film Editing (I'm very pleased for editor Chris King, who should have been in the Oscar discussion last year for Exit Through the Gift Shop). Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy also took home a deuce for Best British Film and Adapted Screenplay, a bittersweet moment for Peter Straughan, whose wife and writing partner Bridget O'Connor's win came posthumously. Hugo also won for Best Production Design (unsurprising) and Sound. I do feel that those sound awards at the Oscars are ripe for the taking, but I'm sticking to my guns on War Horse.

All winners after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Original Score

Along with Best Art Direction, this is the only other craft category that I think we can assume is locked up. And I have to say that I rather like the lineup, myself. Even with the silly disqualification of Drive and the inevitable snubs of Hanna and The Ides of March, the music branch still managed to pin down five of the year's best scores.

One Category at a Time: Art Direction

There are a number of categories this year where I have reasonable doubts about my predicted winner - too many categories. This is not one of them. There is a single obvious choice on which any sane Oscar-watcher should bet the bank, but it's only fair to give the other nominees their congrats:

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

I'm having a really tough time deciding how to feel about the slate of Best Original Screenplay nominees this year. On the one hand, there's nothing more gratifying than to see the two legitimately best screenplays of the year mentioned alongside each other. On the other hand, there's nothing more irritating than to see two uninspired screenplays squeeze out underrated gems like 50/50 and Young Adult in the one category where they could have earned some recognition. And then there's the Best Picture winner's token nomination for Writing. No strong feelings either which way about that one.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

What is it with this category? For four consecutive years now it's housed two nominees from the same film. Is the actors branch really so stretched for options? This year it's two from The Help (accounting for 50% of the film's nomination tally), and they still couldn't include the best supporting female from the movie, Bryce Dallas Howard. At any rate, having costar nominees is always an interesting question mark as to how that will affect the overall outcome.

SAG winners

Stunt Ensemble: Harry Potter

That's all well and good, but why wasn't Mission: Impossible nominated?

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer,
Beginners

Hard to see how Plummer loses this on Oscar night, but the sudden appearance of Max von Sydow (in a Best Picture nominee, no less) has made me wary.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer,
The Help

Yep. Looks like the Oscar's hers. Nice speech too.

Well, damn. Only fifteen minutes in and two of the five awards I care about are done. Am I gonna have to wait an hour and a half until we hit another movie category?

Loved seeing Dick Van Dyke take the stage to introduce and narrate the tribute reel to Lifetime Achievement honouree Mary Tyler Moore. Less thrilled about listening to Mary prattle on about her showbiz name in her speech.

Actor: Jean Dujardin,
The Artist

Well well well, it looks like Harvey's been at it again. Did that pitch perfect Globes speech give Dujardin that extra push here? Where does this put us in terms of the Oscar conversation?

Actress: Viola Davis,
The Help

YES! I was so worried this was going to Meryl. But that acceptance speech. Wow. If that can't net her the Oscar I don't know what can.

Ensemble: The Help

Inarguably the best of the lot.

Well, I BOMBED my predictions (three for six if you include Stunt Ensemble, because why not?), but I'll confess that I was somewhat hedging my bets by predicting Meryl and The Artist; I just really wanted to see Viola and The Help win their respective categories, which they did, so yay!

Tonight marks the third consecutive televised wins for Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer. They are the smart Oscar bets, although I have an unsettling suspicion that Max von Sydow could sneak in the backdoor on Plummer. More on that later this week.

The Best Actress tiebreaker fell in favour of Viola Davis, and it was a huge win because it gave her another chance to move the room to tears with a staggering acceptance speech. Believe it or not, those can make a difference. It's PR gold that can tip the scales in your favour if you do it right, and in her two trips to the podium this season, Viola has NAILED it both times. I think the Oscar is her's to lose.

But what about Best Actor? I said that if someone was going to make a move on Clooney it would have to happen here, and it did. Clooney has the BFCA and the Drama Globe, Dujardin has the SAG and the Comedy Globe. It's worth noting that a comedic performance hasn't won the Best Actor Oscar since 1999 when Roberto Benigni ludicrously won for Life is Beautiful, but it's also worth noting that he also won the SAG and was backed by Weinstein (Mirimax, that is). I'm gonna have to think about this one.

The Artist wins DGA

It should come as a surprise to precisely no one that Michel Hazanavicius all but officially confirmed The Artist's stranglehold on the Best Picture Oscar with a victory from the Directors Guild of America last night, despite being up against four more recognizable names. It's not incredibly dissimilar to last year's event which indicated The King's Speech as the film to beat when newcomer Tom Hooper triumphed over four much more established directors, only this year it's been apparent from the outset of the awards season that The Artist was "the one".

As for Documentary, James Marsh received a consolatory prize after Project Nim was shockingly snubbed by the Academy. Glad to see him walk away from the season with something substantial, but that should totally have been Steve James'.

Reactions to 84th Oscar nominations

It all went down this morning more or less as expected. Hugo and The Artist unsurprisingly led the field of 2011/12 nominees with 11 and 10 Oscar nominations respectively. The next closest were Moneyball and War Horse with six apiece, followed closely by The Descendants and Dragon Tattoo with five (although the latter was squeezed out of the Best Picture lineup).

The most notable of the few inconsequential surprises was the breadth of the Best Picture slate, which ended accommodating nine nominees. Apparently Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close wasn't dead in the water after all; it was just extremely quiet and incredibly close to a Best Picture nomination. I thought I had dodged a bullet in not having to watch this critically derided film, but now I'll have to check it out. With only one other nomination under its belt (for sentimental favourite Max von Sydow, who could stealthily usurp Plummer's long overdue Oscar), one can't help but feel that this particular Best Picture nominee is out of place. This year's Blind Side? I'll hold off on a true opinion until I see it.