War Horse looking good for both Sound Oscars with win from MPSE

As I expected, it was War Horse that won the Motion Picture Sound Editors' key category of Best Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film, a category which has proved itself to be a rather accurate litmus test of which way the Sound Editing Oscar will go for the last five years.

Given the higher match-up rate between the Academy and the MPSE (compared to the lower match-up rate between the Academy and the CAS), I'm going to stick with my theory that this is a better sign for War Horse than the CAS victory was for Hugo, but I could be dead wrong.

Speaking of Hugo, it did manage a win for its only nomination from the MPSE, for Music in a Feature Film, so that may be worth noting if it does end up taking Best Sound Editing from War Horse next Sunday.

Full list of winners (plus some comments) after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Sound Editing

Some odd inclusions and exclusions in Sound Editing this year, in which I only correctly anticipated two of the five nominees. Pretty dismal performance on my part, but with such high-profile snubs, perhaps that's understandable. Among the slighted films are Super 8, which dominated the guild announcements with three nods from the MPSE. No room was made for animated efforts Tintin or Rango either. Ditto Mission: Impossible. But enough of that griping; let's examine those that did make the cut

My Awards nominations: Supporting Actress

Not the strongest year, in my opinion. These Supporting Actress performances are good, but none of them truly stands out to me as an obvious winner. I'm actually interested to find out which one I'll decide upon!

JESSICA CHASTAIN in The Help:

I could just as easily slotted her down for her graceful work on The Tree of Life, but she had more to chew on here; her character bubbles with infectious eccentricity to suppress her messy and complicated feelings of grief and shame.

ELLE FANNING in Super 8:

For being in a second-rate monster movie, she is surprisingly memorable. Her puppy love affair with Joe ratchets up the cute factor, and her rehearsal scene for the movie-within-a-movie seems to be the unanimous highlight of the film.

BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD in The Help:

She takes up the thankless task of playing the waspish queen bee of Jackson's privileged elite, an easy-to-hate but tricky-to-perform character in whom can be detected a frighteningly human element. Her final scene = perfection.

MELANIE LAURENT in Beginners:

Laurent is softly radiant as the love interest in this melancholy romance. You can't help but smile at her light comic touch, nor can you help but sigh at the fragility of her tender heart. Exquisitely supports the tone of the film.

CAREY MULLIGAN in Shame:

Mulligan shows us her range with a spikier, worldlier character than the naïve nymph that first brought her to our attention in An Education. She exceptionally plays the clingy, complex relationship with her sex-addicted brother.

Just missed:
Jessica Chastain in The Tree of Life, Evan Rachel Wood The Ides of March,
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants, Cate Blanchett in Hanna,
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus

VFX field whittled down to ten

The visual effects branch have refined last month's 15-film shortlist to a more manageable ten. All five of my predicted nominees made the cut as well as a couple others (Captain America and Mission Impossible) that would also make fine nominees if I do say so myself.

Super 8 was in my sixth predicted slot, but having failed to make the cut, I think the next most likely spoiler is Pirates 4. Every film from the franchise has been nominated here, so I'd watch out for a potential surprise.

Visual Effects shortlist
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

Review - Super 8

Art imitates art in Super 8, J.J. Abrams love letter to Steven Spielberg, but just like a carbon copy of a piece of paper, the imitation is of noticeably lower quality.

Joe Lamb, played with sincere effort by newcomer Joel Courtney, is mourning the tragic loss of his mother at picture's beginning, immediately establishing him as the sort of emotionally malnourished central character we often saw portrayed in Spielberg's vintage works. He spends his summer days helping a group a friends make an amateur zombie movie. The band of bike-riding filmmakers include a bossy director, an easily nauseated leading man, a pyromaniacal effects artist, and a new leading lady (the wonderful Elle Fanning) whose puppy love affair with sympathetic Joe ratchets the cute factor up to eleven. While filming a key scene by the railroad station, they witness the train wreck (so spectacular it screams “Hollywood fakery”) that unleashes a mysteriously threatening creature upon their unsuspecting middle American burg. It isn't long before Joe's father, the local deputy (Kyle Chandler), begins to catch wind of strange goings-on from paranoid townsfolk.

One Category at a Time: Best Visual Effects

The extra two slots added to the Best Visual Effects field last year have given us prognosticators more degrees of freedom to work with, and give new hope to some films that probably wouldn't be in the conversation otherwise.

Films like Hereafter, which was by no means a big effects film, but used its effects wisely in a solid supporting role and earned a nomination for it. Perhaps a film that can emulate that this year is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which apparently will be sporting dinosaurs in certain sequences and perhaps other shots that may require interesting effects work. Consider this a reckless wild card pick.

The Harry Potter franchise's final installment lands this summer. Having been nominated for two previous Potter films, including last year's The Deathly Hallows: Part 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect branch give Tim Burke and company one final kick at the can. Maybe the Academy will feel inclined to let them win as a way of honouring the series?

There's always one or two huge summer blockbusters that make it in here, and this summer is at no shortage of effects-heavy potential blockbusters. But many of them are comic book adaptations, which only occasionally hit with the Academy. They tend to be kinder to original material, and that's where I give J.J. Abrams' effects team for Super 8 (who've already proven themselves on Star Trek) an edge over the competition.

But sequels can sometimes score here if their predecessors did, in which case Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides may be sitting pretty. All three previous Pirates films have been nominated here, even as the critics have become progressively less kind to them. The extra two slots are a benefit for films that might otherwise be sunk by bad reviews.

Finally, Joe Letteri et. al. at Weta Digital, who have worked such wonders on the Lord of the Rings trilogy and most recently Avatar, are heading Steven Spielberg's take on Tintin. But will the effects branch go for a completely motion-captured film? Avatar had enough live-action footage to convince the Academy that its effects were effects, but they've never given a second glance to any of Robert Zemekis' motion-capture endeavours. Might they consider Tintin just a glorified animated film?

Predicted five:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
The Tree of Life

Also consider: Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, Green Lantern, Hugo Cabret, Transformers 3, X-Men: First Class, Thor.

One Category at a Time: Best Film Editing

As with Best Director, it's hard to imagine that this field will ever include a non-Best-Picture nominee so long as there are ten. It's hard to get a read on what kind of editing a film will have this early in the year, so maybe just choosing a bunch of Best Picture frontrunners is the best way to go about guessing.

One contender I don't feel too uncomfortable predicting is Steven Spielberg's editor of choice, three-time Oscar winner Michael Kahn, a true giant in his field with three high-profile titles being released this year, two of them helmed by Spielberg. The one people will be watching the closest for awards buzz is War Horse, which should stand a decent chance on account of being a war film.

Kevin Tent has been nominated by the American Cinema Editors three times for his collaborations with director Alexander Payne, but has never copped an Oscar nomination. With Payne's The Descendants, maybe he'll finally break through. There's no denying he's due, but will the editor's branch be impressed enough with his typically un-showy work?

It's usually the case that the respected action blockbuster of the year will earn a nomination here, especially if it ends up a Best Picture nominee as well. That may bode well for Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey (who should have been nominated last year for Star Trek) if J.J. Abrams Super 8 delivers with critics and audiences. Of course, that trend catastrophically failed for Inception this past year, so who knows?

Christopher Tellefsen is teaming up again with Bennett Miller (his director on Capote) for the upcoming Moneyball. Nothing about the film really screams "Best Film Editing!!!" aside from its Best Picture potential, but with zesty screenwriters Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian on script duties, Tellefsen will have his hands full just trying to edit around their typically whip-smart dialogue.

Finally, Terrence Malick's long-awaited The Tree of Life has had to employ a whole five-man squad of editors, including Oscar nominees Daniel Rezende (City of God) and Billy Weber (Malick's The Thin Red Line). Again, the possibility of being a hot Best Picture contender is the film's biggest selling point.

Predicted five:
The Descendents
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Tintin, A Dangerous Method, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, The Ides of March, Hugo Cabret, The Whistleblower, Young Adult.

One Category at a Time: Best Sound Editing

The degree of overlap between this category and Best Sound Mixing was smaller this past season than it's been in a while, with only two films nominated for both. Will we see a repeat next year? For the sake of early predictions, it's nice to be as spread out as possible, so let's assume the answer is "yes" for the time being.

Pixar is on a roll in this category, having earned nominations for the last four consecutive years (even for work that may not have been that awards-worthy, but thus is the benefit of being a studio with a high reputation). Can they make it five years in a row with Cars 2. I can think of a few reasons why the streak may end, but Pixar is never that much of a longshot for Sound Editing.

Perhaps a longer shot would be Jon Favreau's Cowboys and Aliens, which looks like it may be a lot of fun, but not really up the Academy's alley. Nevertheless, David Farmer and company have an interesting opportunity to meld rip-roaring Western sound effects with sci-fi alien gadgetry.

Steven Spielberg has two big pictures that could find their way in here this year; War Horse and The Adventures of Tintin. The former, a late-release WWI drama with sound effects supervised by three-time Oscar winner Richard Hymns (Saving Private Ryan) seems like a good enough bet. The latter, a motion-capture adventure with big box-office potential and the attached prestige of a respected director at the helm is probably a formidable contender too.

Finally, one of the few original premises that aims to make some serious coin this summer is J.J. Abrams Super 8. The fact that it isn't based on a comic book hero or previous movie already gives it a leg up with the Academy, who tend to stay away from blockbuster sequels unless they're absolutely amazing. Super 8 looks like it'll have lots of nice loud sound effects to satisfy the sound branch.

Predicted five:
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Cars 2
Cowboys and Aliens
Super 8
War Horse

Also consider: Captain America, The Green Lantern, Transformers 3, Pirates of the Caribbean 4

One Category at a Time: Best Sound Mixing

Something the Sound branch has often showed us in recent years is that it has no problem lining up the Best Picture frontrunners for Best Sound Mixing. The Best Picture winner has been nominated here four years running, so you might do well to pick and choose titles from your pool of predicted Best Picture nominees as potential Sound Mixing contenders.

To that end, I'm making a somewhat experimental prediction for The Tree of Life, mixed by Jeremy Pierson, Christopher Scarabosio, and Craig Berkey. Call this a hunch, but there always seems to be a critically respected film whose sound design does not stand out as an obvious nominee in this field.

I'm also gonna make another outlandish guess for an not-so-obvious contender, David Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. I don't know if this is exactly an Oscar movie, but his last two films (Benjamin Button and The Social Network) have earned nominations for Sound Mixing despite mixes that are comparatively subtle and don't draw much attention to themselves.

Conversely, there always seems to be a critically detested film whose sound design is the most obvious of nominees in this field. That could be any number of summer blockbusters this year, but I'm going with Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Fourteen-time nominee Greg P. Russell is at the mixing board once again, and despite working on projects that are seldom Academy-friendly, his peers in the Sound branch always seem to recognize the quality of his work.

Getting back to the Best Picture contenders with possible appeal to the Sound branch, it's hard to argue with War Horse. War movies are a reasonable bet for all the combat sounds they incorporate, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Spielberg enlist his Oscar-winning sound team from Saving Private Ryan, who are sure to do a bang-up job.

And what of the critically favoured summer actioner? There's always at least one, and it'll probably be the token blockbuster Best Picture nominee. I'm going with Super 8 (assuming it ends up being critically favoured). J.J. Abrams has proven that he can direct the soundtrack of loud sci-fi action very capably, and the film's trailer seems to boast plenty of it.

Predicted five:
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: The Adventures of Tintin, Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, The Green Lantern, Thor (Damn, there are a lot of superhero movies this summer! Won't Hollywood run out at some point?)

One Category at a Time: Best Original Score / Song

I'll get these categories out of the way early because there simply is no logical way to go about predicting the nominees until the music has been heard. For Best Original Score, it isn't unreasonable to just pick Best Picture nominees or films with notable composers.

I get the feeling Alexandre Desplat was real close to winning this year for The King's Speech, but it ended up going to Reznor and Ross, whose work was more deserving anyway. Besides, Desplat will have many more opportunities. He scores so many films a year it's hard to keep count! He already has four lined up for 2011, including Terrence Malick's much anticipated The Tree of Life.

John Williams hasn't been nominated in a while (2006 for Memoirs of a Geisha and Munich), but he's got two Spielberg films to garner him some attention from the music branch, including possible Best Picture contender War Horse.

Could the elegant tones and orchestrations that helped Dario Marianelli to nominations for Pride and Prejudice and Atonement (which he went on to win) help him gain some traction for Jane Eyre? The early release is a hindrance, but sometimes a film from the first half of the year can survive it to the nominations.

Were it not for his Oscar-winning score to Up last year, I think Michael Giacchino may have still been in the running for his work on Star Trek. He's got another chance this summer to get our pulses racing with J.J. Abrams Super 8, which has many a movie fan shivering with excitement. If not that, maybe Cars 2?

James Newton Howard is still waiting for his first Oscar after eight nominations, the most recent of which came two years ago for Defiance. He's got a few titles in the running this year, including the adaptation of the bestselling Water for Elephants.

Predicted five:
Jane Eyre
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Water for Elephants

Best Original Song is anyone's guess. Who knows what films will have songs? Animated features often feature one or two, so I suppose I'll guess:

Cars 2
Happy Feet 2
The Muppets
Winnie the Pooh

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 2)

As attested by those who attended it this past February, the Sundance Film Festival apparently did not offer up much in the way of Oscar fodder this year. But one that did turn some heads, especially for its breakout star Felicity Jones, is Like Crazy, a romantic drama about a British woman separated from her American lover upon expiration of her student visa. You may as well consider this prediction a placeholder for whatever small independent film happens to win the Academy's favour this year. There's always at least one (probably two, with ten slots open).

This past year's Oscar winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, Aaron Sorkin, may be back in the race sooner than we'd expect for Moneyball. He and Steve Zaillian, another past winner of Adapted Screenplay, have fashioned a script from the non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about how Oakland Athletic's general manager Billy Beane assembled a competitive team on a shoestring budget by employing analytical statistic methods. I'll admit it doesn't exactly sound rivetting, but neither did the origin story of Facebook, and we all saw how well Sorkin's take on that turned out. The film will be directed by Bennett Miller (nominated five years ago for Capote) and star Brad Pitt.

Let's not forget the reason the Best Picture field was expanded to ten nominees in the first place; to make room for critically-respected blockbusters. That said, it's quite conceivable there might not be any films that fit the bill this year, given how many sequels and superhero movies there are, but one original premise that already has the Internet abuzz with a titillating trailer is Super 8, from J.J. Abrams, whose Star Trek only just missed out on a Best Picture nomination last year. I'm not at all confident in this prediction. It'll need positive reviews to even stand a chance.

I've been predicting Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life for three consecutive years now, only for it to continue to linger in distribution limbo. Finally, this Spring, at long last, it will see the light of day, and I must say I'm excited. But will expectations be too high? Cinephiles have been waiting a long time to see this film. Can it survive after literally years of extended hype? And even so, is it the Academy's type of movie? I'm hoping for the best.

Steven Spielberg hasn't been a Best Picture nominee since Letter from Iwo Jima, but he could be back next year with another Academy friendly movie called War Horse, which tells the story of a young man who follows his beloved horse into World War I after it is sold to the cavalry. Nearly all the same department heads from Saving Private Ryan have joined up with Spielberg on this one, giving it massive across-the-board potential, and that sentimental storyline can only help matters.

Take these ten predictions lightly. It's just a shot in the dark. If even four of these make it into the Big Ten, I'll consider myself successful.

Predicted ten:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
The Iron Lady
Like Crazy
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, The Beaver, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jane Eyre, One Day, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Whistleblower, Winnie, Wuthering Heights, Young Adult.