One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

What more is there really to say about this category? Or any acting category for that matter? The same four performers have won the BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards and will all probably continue on to take the Oscars.

There's only one possible scenario I can envision in which Christian Bale does not win this; a bona fide sweep for The King's Speech. If the voters really are as lazy as that when they have their ballots in hand, and vote for the film in every category, Geoffrey Rush can ride that pony all the way to podium. But that's not gonna happen. Performances are one thing that Academy members will vote for based on their own merits, rather than the merits of the film. That, or they vote for whichever star they like, and the way Bale's been walking the rope line and charming his way through the circuit, I can't see him not winning this. It also helps that his performance is by far more complex and fully realized than Rush's good-humoured but comparatively thin one.

Oh yeah, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, and Mark Ruffalo are all nominated too, but they're just along for the ride, which is too bad because they delivered some of the finest performances of the year, all of them making my own top five. Renner had us on edge all the way, Hawkes nailed nastiness and goodness all at once, and Ruffalo made easy-going look so much easier than it truly is! I really wish any of them could have won something this year, but you can't derail Bale!

Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Should win: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Ed Harris, The Way Back

My Award nominations: Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor:

CHRISTIAN BALE in The Fighter:
I can't fault Bale for stealing the show away from its own central character, Micky Ward, because he just steals it so well! He delivers a memorable portrait of drug addiction, blind selfishness, and staunch denial that stem from years of living with unfulfilled dreams. He plays brilliantly off of his costars, as they play brilliantly off of him.

MICHAEL FASSBENDER in Fish Tank:
This is a slippery, tightrope-walking performance that constantly shifts and wiggles around in our mind. It's easy for us to love Fassbender's character at first, and it's still hard for us not to love him as the film's sticky sexuality starts to play itself out. It's simultaneously bold and understated work from one of the finest actors working.

ED HARRIS in The Way Back:
In an age where awards are naturally attracted to performances that live by flash and overt displays of emotion, it's so satisfying to behold a settled, sincere performance that's more emotive because it's so understated. Harris' lived-in portrayal of Mr. Smith is as calm but layered as any performance I've seen this year.

JEREMY RENNER in The Town:
The live wire of The Town's sprawling ensemble, Renner makes you tighten your grip on your armrest every time he's on screen. The unpredictability of his performance pays off in numerous and surprising ways, from the tensely soft-spoken conversation he has with Affleck and Hall, to his comedic final actions in the climactic shootout.

MARK RUFFALO in The Kids Are All Right:
Ruffalo's performance is relaxed and naturalistic, slipping into the character with a disarming ease that misdirects us from his own insecurities, namely his reluctance to truly grow up and start the family he wants but lacks the commitment to create. His crushing final scenes perfectly convey his character's vulnerability and regret.

Just missed: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

My Award nominations: Acting Ensemble

Best Acting Ensemble:

Another Year:

Every actor brings something slightly different to the table, they all perform together in perfect harmony, projecting a convincing group dynamic that serves Mike Leigh's focus on character.

The Kids Are All Right:

All five principles give outstanding performances which add up to a whole that is so much greater than the sum of its parts. Interaction between the characters feels genuine and relatable.

The Social Network:

The cast is tops across the board. Everyone knows their character and, more importantly, how to flesh it out through Aaron Sorkin's daunting dialogue; No one is just speaking the words.

The Town:

Perhaps Ben Affleck's most noticeable directorial flourish is constituted by the infallible performances he got out of his cast. Nobody hits a false note. Even those with very little screen time are memorable.

The Way Back:

The strength of this movie is the quiet observation of an evolving band of brothers. No one actor tries to steal the show with unneeded pizazz. Every one of them is supporting the rest.

Just missed: Easy A, The Fighter, Four Lions, Scott Pilgrim vs the World

Predictions - January 2011

Happy New Year, one and all!

I'd say it's high time my sidebar predictions were updated, and the most noteworthy changes in the wake of the critics awards are:

-Winter`s Bone makes a big entry into Best Picture and Supporting Actor.
-The Town also joins the Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actor races.
-Black Swan dives into Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography.
-The Fighter now appears in Best Director and double dips in Supporting Actress.
-Ryan Gosling and Jesse Eisenberg join Best Actor.
-Additions in the craft categories: Alice in Art Direction, Shutter Island in Art Direction & Makeup, True Grit in Costume, The Social Network in Score, and 127 Hours in Score & Sound Editing.

I'm also going to venture some preliminary winner predictions before the guild awards start pouring in. From this point in the race, this is how I see it going down on Oscar night:

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Film Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Original Song: "I See The Light", Tangled
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Best Foreign Language Film: Life, Above All

NBR Winners!

The Social Network is the big winner in this early precursor, which only gives us more reason to believe that The King's Speech will be triumphant on Oscar night.

Jackie Weaver's campaign gets a helpful shot in the arm with a Supporting Actress win here, and I'm thrilled to see the cast of The Town (one of the year's absolute best in my opinion) win Best Ensemble.

One incredulity of note: Where the hell is The Kids Are All Right? You mean to tell me it isn't even one of the ten best independent films of the year, let alone one of the ten best overall? Ridiculous. But I won't waste my rage on the NBR. Gotta save some vitriol for AMPAS, don'tcha know.

BEST FILM
The Social Network

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Social Network

BEST ACTOR
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

BEST ACTRESS
Lesley Manville, Another Year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

BEST ORIGINL SCREENPLAY
Chris Sparling, Buried

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Of Gods and Men

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Waiting for Superman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 3

BEST ENSEMBLE
The Town