One Category at a Time: Picture

A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.

Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:

127 Hours: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
Black Swan: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Inception: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Kids Are All Right: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Toy Story 3: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
True Grit: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Winter's Bone: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)

And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.

The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.


The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.

True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).

You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:

-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone

Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole

One Category at a Time: Actress

There have been whisperings that Annette Bening is lurking as a serious spoiler threat in this category, pushing the publicity wagon hard as she can in the final weeks before ballots are due. And there's certainly a valid case you can make for her upsetting the frontrunner: she's a beloved actress who's put in years of hard work to create a diverse and respected filmography, she's due for a win, and her performance in The Kids Are All Right is a sincere one. However, if she was going to turn the corner, it had to be at this past Sunday's BAFTAs, and of course that didn't go her way.

So, having nailed down the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, it would still be foolish to predict anyone but Natalie Portman taking the Oscar. You'll be hearing no complaints from me. It's a helluva performance that showcases such a wide range from the actress, and she still manages to keep it under control, which is remarkable given how out of control her character is. Even though Black Swan isn't really the Academy's cuppa tea, they surely won't mind awarding it this one prize. After last year's mini-travesty, looks like this category is gonna be right back on track with a quality winner.

But of course, that would still be the case even if Portman somehow loses, because every nominee is all aces. It's simply impossible for them to pick a bad winner from this bunch. Jennifer Lawrence owned Winter's Bone from start to finish with her no-bullshit stoicism, Michelle Williams spun a heartbreaking tandem with Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, and Nicole Kidman's brilliant turn in Rabbit Hole is one of the most emotionally flavourful she's ever given.

I know how corny this sounds, but seriously, they're all winners.

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Runner-up: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

What more is there really to say about this category? Or any acting category for that matter? The same four performers have won the BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards and will all probably continue on to take the Oscars.

There's only one possible scenario I can envision in which Christian Bale does not win this; a bona fide sweep for The King's Speech. If the voters really are as lazy as that when they have their ballots in hand, and vote for the film in every category, Geoffrey Rush can ride that pony all the way to podium. But that's not gonna happen. Performances are one thing that Academy members will vote for based on their own merits, rather than the merits of the film. That, or they vote for whichever star they like, and the way Bale's been walking the rope line and charming his way through the circuit, I can't see him not winning this. It also helps that his performance is by far more complex and fully realized than Rush's good-humoured but comparatively thin one.

Oh yeah, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, and Mark Ruffalo are all nominated too, but they're just along for the ride, which is too bad because they delivered some of the finest performances of the year, all of them making my own top five. Renner had us on edge all the way, Hawkes nailed nastiness and goodness all at once, and Ruffalo made easy-going look so much easier than it truly is! I really wish any of them could have won something this year, but you can't derail Bale!

Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Should win: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Ed Harris, The Way Back

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

This past weekend saw the awards race continue to take a turn for the worse as The King's Speech strolled through the DGA and SAG awards that aught rightfully have gone to more deserving films. It's likely heading for a sweep of sorts, much to the detriment of the superior Social Network, but there's at least one category where Fincher's film won't be in direct competition with the kingly juggernaut.
Needless to say, anybody other than Aaron Sorkin nabbing the Adapted Screenplay prize would be an utter shock and embarrassment. What he accomplished with The Social Network is one of the finest pieces of intelligent and artful screenwriting in years.

That being said, the rest of the field is still a respectable bunch. True Grit is wonderfully written by the Coens, as always, featuring period-appropriate dialogue and an excellent sense of timing. Toy Story 3 is also one of the year's best scripts (although it should be competing in the Original category), lingering on the verge of greatness for the first 90 minutes, and then finally not only meeting it, but exceeding it with that potent, beautiful ending. Danny Boyle's innovation as a filmmaker continued exploring tricky and challenging territory with his and Simon Beaufoy's unique work in 127 Hours, and Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini did a fine job at building intrigue in the grainy Winter's Bone.

It's a shame David Lindsey-Abaire's Rabbit Hole or Polanski & Harris' The Ghost Writer couldn't find room here, but at the end of the day, it's a moot point.

The Academy 'Likes' Aaron Sorkin.

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Rabbit Hole

Predictions - January 2011

Happy New Year, one and all!

I'd say it's high time my sidebar predictions were updated, and the most noteworthy changes in the wake of the critics awards are:

-Winter`s Bone makes a big entry into Best Picture and Supporting Actor.
-The Town also joins the Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actor races.
-Black Swan dives into Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography.
-The Fighter now appears in Best Director and double dips in Supporting Actress.
-Ryan Gosling and Jesse Eisenberg join Best Actor.
-Additions in the craft categories: Alice in Art Direction, Shutter Island in Art Direction & Makeup, True Grit in Costume, The Social Network in Score, and 127 Hours in Score & Sound Editing.

I'm also going to venture some preliminary winner predictions before the guild awards start pouring in. From this point in the race, this is how I see it going down on Oscar night:

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Film Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Original Song: "I See The Light", Tangled
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Best Foreign Language Film: Life, Above All