One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

The Supporting Actress slate doesn't seem has chock full of legit contenders as it has in years past. Not that any of these five performances are undeserving of some Oscar love, but four of them really don't hold a candle to the fifth, making this one of the night's slam dunk categories.

Review - Silver Linings Playbook

Like the bipolar protagonist at its centre, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is prone to wild mood swings at the drop of a hat. Fluctuating between wry humour, dramatic pathos, and earnest romance, it may not bring you any closer to understanding mental illness, but it makes for a surprisingly fun and satisfying picture.

In fact, the film actually downplays the severity of mental illness insomuch as it suggests that everybody is, to an extent, “crazy”. Pat Solitano (Bradley Cooper) – an undiagnosed bipolar having just completed his stay at a psychiatric hospital following a particularly violent episode – may be the character whose mental issues are addressed most directly, but we come to see how he's less strange when surrounded by his unstable family and friends. Be it his OCD father (Robert De Niro) who superstitiously insists on very specific conditions in order to win money on NFL games, his marriage-smothered best friend (John Ortiz), his mental ward cohort (Chris Tucker), or even his well-meaning but stifling mother (Jackie Weaver), everyone in his life exhibits some degree of “crazy”.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

This category is the only interesting one in the major categories, with a shaky frontrunner primed for an upset by a couple of potential spoilers.

Said frontrunner is Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Not to take anything away from her hard-earned success this season, but I really don't see what makes her performance so special. She does a good job, but I can't say I'm as taken as everyone else appears to be. Having swept the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Award, the smart money's on her, but she feels very vulnerable. Her acceptance speeches always seem to come across as being a bit full of herself, and word that she's recently embarked upon her own personal FYC campaign may be the grain of sand that tips the scales in someone else's favour.

Someone like Hailee Steinfeld, whose terrific realization of Mattie Ross in True Grit is the best performance of the five. There's a lot of support for the film and the performance, and this may be the place the Academy recognizes it, if Deakins' cinematography doesn't come to fruition.

Or it could go to Amy Adams, who gives a superior performance to Melissa Leo's if you ask me, and who's at just the right point in her career to win an Oscar, but this strikes me as a less likely possibility, given how much support Melissa Leo is still pulling.

Helena Bonham Carter might (just barely might) shock us all if The King's Speech is really going to sweep, but probably not. As for Jackie Weaver, good for her! It's great to see unknowns get recognized for obscure films, even though you know they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Runner-up: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should have been nominated: Lesley Manville, Another Year

LAFCA Winners!

The Social Network takes Best Picture, Screenplay, and ties for Best Director and Score. Oscar contenders Colin Firth and Jackie Weaver took Best Actor and Supporting Actress respectively, while Actress and Supporting Actor went to left-field choices Kim Hye-ja (Mother) and Niels Arestrup (excellent in A Prophet).

Winners and runners-up after the cut.

NBR Winners!

The Social Network is the big winner in this early precursor, which only gives us more reason to believe that The King's Speech will be triumphant on Oscar night.

Jackie Weaver's campaign gets a helpful shot in the arm with a Supporting Actress win here, and I'm thrilled to see the cast of The Town (one of the year's absolute best in my opinion) win Best Ensemble.

One incredulity of note: Where the hell is The Kids Are All Right? You mean to tell me it isn't even one of the ten best independent films of the year, let alone one of the ten best overall? Ridiculous. But I won't waste my rage on the NBR. Gotta save some vitriol for AMPAS, don'tcha know.

BEST FILM
The Social Network

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Social Network

BEST ACTOR
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

BEST ACTRESS
Lesley Manville, Another Year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

BEST ORIGINL SCREENPLAY
Chris Sparling, Buried

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Of Gods and Men

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Waiting for Superman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 3

BEST ENSEMBLE
The Town

Review - Animal Kingdom

Mini-review for the Australian crime flick Animal Kingdom:

Animal Kingdom examines a family of armored car robbers being hunted down one-by-one by the cops, as seen through the eyes of the 18-year-old who is thrown into their world after his mother dies and he's left in their care. The film moves at a rather sluggish pace and struggles to maintain interest, probably because our young central character seems so passive and uninterested in everything that's happening around him. Scenes that could have been milked for suspense or surprise or drama aren't executed as effectively as they could have been. Frankly, they're kinda boring. Chief among the films few assets is Jacki Weaver, who casts a somewhat creepy presence as the family's nearly unshakable matriarch, but her performance is not exactly the awards-worthy performance several outlets have declared. She's good, not great.

As for her awards campaign, Sony Picture Classics was quick out of the gate with DVDs sent to Academy members, but I'd argue that the hype is the enemy. If voters watch their screeners expecting to see her “set the screen ablaze”, they may be disappointed by the relatively chilly nature of the performance.

** out of ****

Predictions - November 2010

Here are some changes:

-John Malkovich may get some love in Supporting Actor for his charismatic (or so I've heard) performance in Secretariat. The film could find a soft spot in the Academy, but its disappointing box office has me doubting. I've added it to Sound Mixing as well.
-It's conceivable to me that Amy Adams and Melissa Leo could split the Fighter vote, allowing someone like Jackie Weaver to get in for Animal Kingdom. Screeners have already been sent, so that gives her a leg up.
-I don't know what to make of The Way Back in this year's race. Most people won't even get to see it until late January. I am going to put it back in at least one category, however, and that's Cinematography.
-Alexandre Desplat is going to win Best Original Score one of these years, and by riding the coattails of The King's Speech, perhaps this could be the year? I'm definitely putting him down for the nomination at least.
-Disney is launching an all-out campaign for Alice in Wonderland (someone shoot me in the head), so I've reluctantly added it to Visual Effects and Makeup. I'll hold out on Art Direction for as long as I can.