One Category at a Time: Picture

A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.

Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:

127 Hours: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
Black Swan: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Inception: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Kids Are All Right: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Toy Story 3: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
True Grit: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Winter's Bone: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)

And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.

The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.


The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.

True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).

You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:

-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone

Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

This is just one of many tight races that will be decided on Oscar night. The King's Speech and The Social Network are neck-in-neck. As I've stated before, the cause for uncertainty stems from the two conflicting schools of thought on how the general Academy votes on these categories that they might not understand; do they vote for the movie they liked better, or for the movie with the more noticeable craft? There are probably plenty of voters who fall into either camp, but as to which camp is more populated is anybody's guess.

At least it comes down the two most deserving nominees, in my opinion. Tariq Anwar does a terrific job at punctuating the actors' performances with shrewd shot selection for The King's Speech, and Baxter and Wall give The Social Network a flow that can't be topped. Either of them would make a fine winner in lieu of Lee Smith, who suffered the most egregious snub of the year when the editors branch gave Inception the kick.
The only clue I can look to for guidance (or misguidance as the case may be) is the ACE Eddie, which has gone to the eventual Oscar winner for the last nine consecutive years, almost always in the Drama category. The Social Network took that this year, so I'm gonna put my faith in the trend.

As for the also-rans, there's some decent work on display, most notably Andrew Weisblum's cutting of Black Swan. I don't relish the task of trying to moderate and control Aronofsky's off-the-wall visuals. The boxing sequences in The Fighter were well put together by Pamela Martin, and John Harris certainly amped up the intensity in 127 Hours (even if I'm not exactly on board with that directorial decision).

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inception

One Category at a time: Original Score

Not sure how to feel about this category. On the one hand, I could rejoice that my three favourite scores of the year all managed nominations from this often-questionable branch. On the other hand, I could despair that all of them are likely to lose to a far inferior score. On the other hand, the composer of said score should have won two years ago, and it'd be nice to see him win the Oscar he should already have. On the other hand, it'd be annoying to see him win his Oscar for a score that doesn't even come close to the inventiveness and memorability of his previous work, let alone his fellow nominees this year. What's a guy to do?

That score which is causing me so much grief is Alexandre Desplat's for The King's Speech. It looks like the one that's going to win to me, but deep down, it just doesn't sound right, does it?

What Hans Zimmer did on Inception is a brilliant accomplishment in building mood and intensity. John Powell's music, enjoyable and beautiful, makes How to Train Your Dragon soar. The identity Reznor and Ross infused into The Social Network is highly unique; a completely successful defiance of convention that works without intruding. They're all the epitome of effective and unforgettable music.

And then there's The King's Speech...

...and I struggle to find something to say. Not to sully Desplat's elegant work with petty quibbles, but I get the feeling that (assuming he wins) this'll be one of those Oscar wins that people will look back on 50 years from now, scrunch their noses and say, "Really?"

Could Inception upset? They may not like the movie enough. How to Train Your Dragon? Not a Best Picture nominee. The Social Network? Too atypical.

Oh yeah, A.R. Rahman (who robbed Desplat of the Oscar he should have won two years ago) is also nominated, but I don't think 127 Hours has enough support to factor into the equation here.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Inception

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy

One Category at a Time: Original Song

This might be the most wide-open category at this year's Oscars. There's a case to be made for all four nominees. The two most convincing arguments come for the animated entries Tangled and Toy Story 3, for the songs "I See The Light" and "We Belong Together".

The former keeps very much in the vein traditional Disney; a lovely romantic ballad to accompany a beautifully animated sequence. I was already enjoying Tangled plenty before that, but this scene is when my heart really melted. It would make a great winner. Alan Menken is sort of my idol.

The latter is an equally plausible winner, simply because Toy Story 3 is the most beloved nominee in the category. The song itself is kinda derivative, and doesn't come close to the greatness of Randy Newman's previous two songs for the franchise, the heartbreaking "When She Loved Me" and the series-defining "You've Got A Friend In Me". That said, it's still bouncy and enjoyable enough to draw in votes. Being a Best Picture nominee certainly helps.

Another Best Picture nominee represented here is 127 Hours for A.R. Rahman's "If I Rise". He won this category two years ago for "Jai Ho" (a bit of a mistake if you ask me), but that was a high-energy finale with choreography to go with it, whereas "If I Rise" is more on the mellow side and plays so briefly during the film that I'd be surprised by anyone who could remember the tune without listening to the album version.

Or, if none of those options tickle the Academy's fancy, they could stick with the same type of winner they awarded last by voting for "Coming Home" from Country Strong. It's featured prominently enough in the film, but how many members have seen the film? A poor critical response truncated its already tiny release. But if they just listen to the song, that may be enough convince otherwise uninterested voters.

Will win: "We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
Runner-up: "I See The Light", Tangled

Should win: "I See The Light", Tangled
Should have been nominated: "Shine", Waiting for Superman

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

This past weekend saw the awards race continue to take a turn for the worse as The King's Speech strolled through the DGA and SAG awards that aught rightfully have gone to more deserving films. It's likely heading for a sweep of sorts, much to the detriment of the superior Social Network, but there's at least one category where Fincher's film won't be in direct competition with the kingly juggernaut.
Needless to say, anybody other than Aaron Sorkin nabbing the Adapted Screenplay prize would be an utter shock and embarrassment. What he accomplished with The Social Network is one of the finest pieces of intelligent and artful screenwriting in years.

That being said, the rest of the field is still a respectable bunch. True Grit is wonderfully written by the Coens, as always, featuring period-appropriate dialogue and an excellent sense of timing. Toy Story 3 is also one of the year's best scripts (although it should be competing in the Original category), lingering on the verge of greatness for the first 90 minutes, and then finally not only meeting it, but exceeding it with that potent, beautiful ending. Danny Boyle's innovation as a filmmaker continued exploring tricky and challenging territory with his and Simon Beaufoy's unique work in 127 Hours, and Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini did a fine job at building intrigue in the grainy Winter's Bone.

It's a shame David Lindsey-Abaire's Rabbit Hole or Polanski & Harris' The Ghost Writer couldn't find room here, but at the end of the day, it's a moot point.

The Academy 'Likes' Aaron Sorkin.

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Rabbit Hole

One Category at a Time: Actor

What more can really be said? Everyone who follows movie awards (and even those who don't!) knows that Colin Firth is winning an Academy Award on February 27th. And not without good reason. His turn as the Duke of York is a heartfelt portrayal of damaged self-esteem, and he handles his character's transformation into a humble but unafraid leader with grace and emotion.

Even though it's a foregone conclusion that Firth has it in the bag, it's still worth tipping the hat to his fellow nominees, who comprise a stellar lineup. It's pleasing to see Javier Bardem's understated but devastating work in Biutiful didn't go unrewarded (even if it came at the expense of Ryan Gosling). Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are on hand to represent the younger Hollywood generation with a pair of outstanding performances -- in The Social Network and 127 Hours respectively -- that paint vivid portraits of human nature and the consequences of our failure to connect with others (or the pleasures of our succeeding to do so). And of course, coming off his long-time-coming victory last year, Jeff Bridges is back in vogue for an unforgettable and highly enjoyable scenery-chewing outing in True Grit.

It's a scene-stealer to be sure, but not an Oscar-stealer. Having won nearly every critics award, the Golden Globe, the Critics' Choice, and soon the SAG, I'll be shocked if anyone other than Colin Firth wins it.

Will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Runner-up: Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

My Award nominations: Actor

Crowded field, as always. Wish I could include more. My five Best Actor picks are:

GEORGE CLOONEY in The American:
George Clooney is at his understated best playing the most professional of professional killers with a non-fussy attitude and an excellent sense of dramatic timing. The film's quiet, observational style is the perfect stage for the subtlety and detail of Clooney's performance. He doesn't need much dialogue; his face does all the talking.

AARON ECKHART in Rabbit Hole:
Nicole Kidman is getting most of the press for her terrific performance in Rabbit Hole, but Aaron Eckhart is equally brilliant, playing a character who staunchly clings to every memory of his son in order to subdue a bitter rage that simmers just beneath a stoic front. Watching him finally lash out is painful but entirely understandable.

JESSE EISENBERG in The Social Network:
Eisenberg gives a highly mannered yet nuanced performance as Zuckerberg, or rather, a quasi-alternate-universe projection of Zuckerberg. He doesn't try to do an imitation, but carves out a unique and complicated social outsider who seems to suffer from both an inferiority and superiority complex all at once, wanting to belong, but on his own.

JAMES FRANCO in 127 Hours:
He’s the film's biggest asset, holding all 90 minutes of the movie almost entirely by himself, bringing not only a lot of energy and charisma, but also the restraint and tact to evoke his character's arc from blissful ignorance to his moment of epiphany. What I’ll ultimately remember 127 Hours as is a gripping performance piece from a skilled actor.

RYAN GOSLING in Blue Valentine:
A wholly realized, lived-in performance that cuts close to the bone. Gosling turns himself inside out for Derek Cianfrance's devastating marital drama, embodying all the love, anger, fear, compassion, and regret that goes hand-in-hand with marriage all at once, but in different proportion and focus depending on the progression of his character.

Just missed: Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception, Robert Duvall in Get Low, Colin Firth in The King's Speech

ACE nominees!

The American Cinema Editors have spoken:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
“Black Swan” (Andrew Weisblum)
“The Fighter” (Pamela Martin)
“Inception” (Lee Smith) This had better win!
“The King’s Speech” (Tariq Anwar)
“The Social Network” (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall)

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical)
“Alice in Wonderland” (Chris Lebenzon)
“Easy A” (Susan Littenberg)
“The Kids Are All Right” (Jeffrey M. Werner) This had better win!
“Made in Dagenham” (Michael Parker)
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” (Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss)

Best Edited Animated Film
“Despicable Me” (Gregory Perler, Pam Ziegenhagen)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Maryann Brandon, Darren T. Holmes)
“Toy Story 3″ (Ken Schretzmann, Lee Unkrich)

Best Edited Documentary
“Exit Through the Gift Shop” (Tom Fulford, Chris King) This had better win!
“Inside Job” (Chad Beck, Adam Bolt)
“Waiting for Superman” (Jay Cassidy, Greg Finton, Kim Roberts)


Pretty decent slate, especially given how my five film editing favourites of the year are all represented! Yay! Some observations to pick out from this very important guild:

-The omission of 127 Hours is indeed a sign; the industry just doesn't seem excited about this movie. Are people really being turned off by the graphic grisliness? I'm thinking this is the Best Picture contender in that unenviable 11th slot right now.
-I've had The Fighter down for Film Editing since my early predictions waaaaay back in May, and it looks like that may come to fruition.
-Black Swan and Inception have scored with every guild (although you could argue Inception's Stunt Ensemble nod from SAG doesn't really count).
-Inside Job is the only documentary to score with all four major guilds (DGA, WGA, PGA, ACE). Do we have a winner?

My Award nominations: Sound Mixing

Sound Mixing:

127 Hours (Douglas Cameron, Steven Laneri, Niv Adiri, Richard Pryke, Ian Tapp):
The mixers of Danny Boyle's unique experience aurally expand and compress the space via their fine integration of everything from the bombastic (ie: reverberating echoes) to the subtle (ie: insect footsteps).

Black Swan (Ken Ishii, Craig Henighan, Dominick Tavella):
Darren Aronofsky's psychological thriller owes much of its tension-building panache to the intense sonic environment. The music and the ambient sound effects dance together in perfect tandem as Nina's mind becomes a wash of maddening noises.

Restrepo (Coll Anderson):It may not be a hugely sophisticated or polished mix, but the gritty sound of this cinema verite documentary is a huge part of the intensity with which it glows. Untidy production audio is translated into a comprehensible but jarring soundscape.

The Social Network (Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Mark Weingarten):
The sophistication and nuance of this mix is a really tough one to notice in one viewing, but after you've seen it a few times and have accustomed yourself to the dialogue and the editing rhythms, it becomes more apparent how crucial the aural detail is to the experience.

TRON Legacy (Michael McGee, Christopher Boyes, Juan Peralta, Gary Rizzo):
Much of what envelopes us in the world of The Grid is the distinctive sound atmosphere spun by these expert mixers. The marriage of the sound effects and Daft Punk's techno score (which is like a sound effect itself) is a feast for the ears.

Just missed: How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, Shutter Island, The Town

Review - 127 Hours

Much ado has been made of Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours, the cinematic retelling of a decidedly uncinematic true story; the one of thrill-seeker Aaron Ralston, who, in 2003, became trapped in a canyon in Utah and was forced to amputate his own arm after 127 grueling hours.

In Boyle’s version, Ralston (terrifically played by James Franco) first experiences hallucinations and eventually moments of epiphany during his harrowing 6-day ordeal. Through his script (co-written by Simon Beaufoy), Boyle makes his movie about more than just what happened to a man, but about the importance of not shunning society. It’s only through his arduous week-long isolation that Ralston realizes he’s been isolated longer than he knew.

My thoughts are split pretty much straight down the middle on this film, so I’m going to organize them into a paragraph on what I loved about it, and a paragraph on what I really didn’t love about it.

What I loved: Kudos to Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, and producer Christian Colson (all of them Oscar winners for Slumdog Millionaire you’ll recall) for having the brass balls to try and put a story like this on the big screen. The entertainment industry is woefully deficient in filmmakers who are willing to take risks, push boundaries, and challenge themselves. I have nothing but respect and amazement for them having delivered something inventive and original. But the film’s biggest ace is star James Franco, who holds all 90 minutes of the movie almost entirely by himself. What I’ll ultimately remember 127 Hours as is a gripping performance piece from a skilled actor. I also sing the praises of Boyle’s audio team for assembling a slick sound design.

What I didn’t love: This is every inch a Danny Boyle film. That’s not a knock against the auteur’s style, but I’ll explain. All of the stylistics of his previous work is there: split screens, frenetic editing, creative camera work, thumping music… which all worked swell for the likes of Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, or Slumdog Millionaire. But for what is essentially a one-man show set within a crack in a rock, that aesthetic just didn’t fit. I didn’t feel the isolation and claustrophobia of Ralston’s situation because the distractions of Boyle’s approach kept removing me from the experience. I daresay the music and the editing ended up getting on my nerves.

The brilliance of Franco’s performance and the ambition of Boyle as a director are worthy of four stars, but the fact that I didn’t really feel any closer to understanding Ralston’s character bumps 127 Hours down to a respectable miss.

But I doubt it'll miss with Oscar. Nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, and Editing are pretty much assured, with likely nods for Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score, and possibly Original Song and Adapted Screenplay coming as well.

*** out of ****