'La La Land' Dances Off with DGA, 'Lion' Roars at ASC

Damien Chazelle and his La La Land directorial team took top honours from the Directors Guild of America last night, all but squashing any remaining doubt as to who this year's Academy Award Best Picture winner is going to be in three weeks.

What we can still ponder in the meantime is the extent to which it will dominate the Oscars. While many still anticipate a clean sweep, there's more than enough reason to suspect it's showing weakness in some categories. For instance, will the BAFTAs (next Sunday) and WGA Awards (the Sunday after that) imply Best Original Screenplay going to something like Manchester by the Sea, or perhaps even Hell or High Water? Will the two design categories go to period or fantasy efforts as they tend to do?

Even Best Cinematography has been thrown slightly into question after the American Society of Cinematographer's bestowed their top honour upon Greig Fraser for his beautiful work Lion, a beloved player this season that voters might feel is due a consolatory win in at least one category.

For now, there's still plenty to keep my interest up.

[UPDATED] Guilds Round-Up: CAS, VES, ASC, MUAHS, CDG

The BAFTA and PGA weren't the only industry groups that got a word in yesterday. Here's a summary of other artisan guilds and societies that have had their say in advance of Friday's Oscar deadline:

AMERICAN SOCIETY of CINEMATOGRAPHERS

Arrival -- Bradford Young
La La Land -- Linus Sandgren
Lion -- Greig Fraser
Moonlight -- James Laxton
Silence -- Rodrigo Prieto
That's a mighty fine-looking lineup, folks.
In fact, swap one of these out for The Light Between Oceans and you have my own personal ballot. As it stands, this could be a perfect match-up with Oscar's cinematography branch. To see Bradford Young and Greig Fraser nominated alongside eachother would certainly make happy many a cinephile who have itched to see them recognized for years. But I have a sneaky suspicion Robert Richardson could still figure in for Live By Night. He's pulled the very same trick sans guild nomination before.

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY

Sound Mixing -- Live Action Motion Picture

Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
Sully
I'm not sold on Doctor Strange as an Oscar nominee here (no MCU movie has been nominated in this category if you can believe it). As to what takes it over, I'm leaning towards Arrival, which is infinitely more deserving anyway, but quality of work is no guarantee with this branch. Are we all excited to see Kevin O'Connell (Hacksaw Ridge) lose his 21st Oscar to another musical on February 26th?
I know I am (*ties hangman's noose around neck*)

Chivo wins ASC for 'The Revenant'

Hard not to see that coming. That historic third consecutive Oscar is practically on his mantle.

What I wonder about now is how this impacts the Visual Effects race. Will the academy revert back to that unfortunate trend of lumping the two together? I mean, The Revenent's effects are impressive, but are there enough of them to overcome the likes of Star Wars, Mad Max, or even The Martian?

Chivo Wins Fourth ASC Award for 'Birdman'

The American Society of Cinematographers is a guild that knows the score. They've honoured Roger Deakins three times for some of his richest, most indelible work, and they've awarded Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubezki four times for Children of Men, The Tree of Life, Gravity, and now Birdman.

'Imitation Game' sneaks into ASC nominees

I've liked a lot of movies for their cinematography this year. Even films that I'm not crazy about on the whole (Unbroken, Inherent Vice, The Homesman) have impressed with their photographic imagery, and I still have yet to see both of Bradford Young's 2014 projects, Selma and A Most Violent Year.

It makes it all the more a shame that the American Society of Cinematographers can only nominate five (barring a tie like last year). This year they are:

Birdman - Emmanuel Lubezki
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Robert Yeoman
The Imitation Game - Oscar Faura
Mr. Turner - Dick Pope
Unbroken - Roger Deakins

It looks like Lubezki's collecting interest on his overdue Oscar win from last year. He should have had two statues before Gravity, so you won't find me complaining when he becomes the first DP to go back-to-back since John Toll won consecutively in 95/96.

(Unless Interstellar pops up on the Oscar ballot, which might give me pause. The guild and AMPAS rarely go 5/5.)

ASC Award goes to Gravity

Like we all knew would happen, Emmanuel Lubezki has won his third American Society of Cinematographers Award for his groundbreaking work on Gravity. The Oscar is all but his at this point (I'd like to see the Academy even try and screw him over this time).

Seven nominees from ASC!

To cap off the busy day of precursor announcements, the American Society of Cinematographers has had their say. This category has felt for a while now like a tight six or seven horse race for only five slots, and that theory has been proven quite literally by the guild. In a shocking tie for that fifth slot, we have seven nominees for the ASC's top prize of the year, meaning this gives us no help in making our Oscar predictions (except perhaps that we can now relegate Rush to the also-rans).

The nominees are:

Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
Sean Bobbit, 12 Years a Slave
Roger Deakins, Prisoners
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Philippe Le Sourd, The Gransmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska

Deakins wins ASC!!!

Fuck. Yes.

Even though I know his Oscar chances are slim, this consolatory prize for the great Roger Deakins from the American Society of Cinematographers makes me cheer. Skyfall was the best shot film of the year by a country mile in my opinion, and I'm so glad to see that Deakins' peers recognize it for the masterstroke that it is.

Kudos, Mr. Deakins. Kudos.

American Society of Cinematographers nominate

The ASC's five nominees for outstanding cinematography are:

Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

So more bad news for The Master, which continues to miss with the guilds. I had a suspicion Anna Karenina's chances in this category were still very much alive, and its BAFTA nod this morning gives me further cause to predict it (as though its gorgeousness isn't cause enough). Life of Pi, Skyfall, and Lincoln all feel safe. If any of these ASC nominees is on the bubble I might think it Les Mis, whose frequent closeups are quite divisive.

Tree of Life wins much deserved top honour from ASC

The American Society of Cinematographers, in an unsurprising and completely justifiable move, continued the precursor trend by handing their top prize for cinematography to Emmanuel Lubezki and his dreamy compositions for The Tree of Life.

I remain pessimistic on his Oscar chances. He's been in the frontrunner position before (for 2006's Children of Men) only to have the Academy opt for a more traditionally beautiful movie (Pan's Labyrinth). Nevertheless, I'll be watching Best Cinematography with much interest on Oscar night. All the nominees feel like plausible winners.

ASC nominees

The American Society of Cinematographers nominees are:
The Artist, Guillaume Shiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo, Robert Richardson
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Hoyte van Hoytema
The Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki

Nice bit of love for Hoyte van Hoytema, who I'd have loved to see get an Oscar nom three years back for Let the Right One In. His work on Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is similarly nuanced and visually articulate. Very classy selection, ASC.

The other four were largely expected, and I predict will be chalked up for the Oscar.

The conspicuous absence of War Horse from the majority of guild citations so far might be a telling sign. While I still think Janusz Kaminski gets in with the Academy's cinematographers branch, the story these guild snubs tell for the film as a whole is rather ominous. With only a PGA nod (in a ten-wide field) under its belt, it's time to shift it from being a safe Best Picture bet to being on the bubble.

Wally Pfister wins ASC

Can he win the Oscar? Somehow I doubt it. Still holding out hope for Deakins.

BAFTA and ASC today.

Today we learn the winners of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards. I think most people are anticipating a sweep of sorts for hometown favourite The King's Speech, and so am I.

We will also learn which film the American Society of Cinematographers have decided has the best photography of the year. I'm firmly in Roger Deakins' cheering section (even if I feel Black Swan's Matthew Lebatique deserves it above all comers), yet I've got that horrible feeling it'll go to Danny Cohen for The King's Speech, possibly ruining Deakins' chances at that long overdue Oscar. Step up ASC. Do the right thing.

ASC nominees!

The American Society of Cinematographers have chosen

Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (Wally Pfister)
The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)

Good for Cohen and Cronenweth, who did fine jobs on their respective films, but I still don`t think I'd count out Robert Richardson of the Oscar lineup just yet. 127 Hours may be in trouble here.