Sunday Top Ten: Pet Peeves of the 2011 Oscar Season

Here's an early installment of what I hope will be a successful feature on the site this year. Didn't make sense to wait 'til May before unleashing this one. Best get this therapeutic bout of bitching out of the way early, so I can move on to some more positive thinking!

#10: Late releases
Nominees released in 2010 were terribly back-ended this year. True, this is basically the case every year, but there were so many good ones I couldn't see until February, and it just made the awards-watching season all the more hectic.

#9: The King's Speech marketing
Oh, that Harvey Weinstein. This is the third season in a row his Best Picture pony has irked me by its mere inclusion in the lineup. Granted, The King's Speech is far better than Inglourious Basterds and The Reader, but the type of advertising campaign it got was way beneath it, from that lame, poorly photoshopped poster to this hammy trailer that "reminds us we're all human".

#8: Dull show
I was so miffed by the 2010 Oscarcast that both it and its producer Adam Shankman soared to the top of last year's list of seasonal pestilences. But that didn't give this year's show a free ticket, and indeed, producers Bruce Cohen and Don Mischer managed to disappoint. Some of the blame could be laid on the predictability of the winners, but lazy writing, poor hosting, and a severe lack of focus ensured that this year's Oscars were a snooze.

#7: Spousal snubs
In a year that saw some terrific tandem acting from performers playing husband and wife (or wife and wife), it was such a shame that only one half of each whole was represented by the nominations. Julianne Moore was sidelined all season long (save for the Golden Globes) in favour of her Kids Are All Right costar Annette Bening, Aaron Eckhart gained no traction whatsoever despite giving a gut-wrenching performance opposite Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, and Blue Valentine's Ryan Gosling was tragically left out of the Best Actor race while Michelle Williams eked into Best Actress. There's just not enough room for all the greatness.

#6: Lee Smith snub

There's one every year. Two years ago it was the rude exclusion of Bruce Springsteen's “The Wrestler” from Best Original Song, last year it was the unjustifiable omission of District 9 from Best Makeup, and this year it was the unfathomable snub by the editors branch of Lee Smith for arguably the finest film editing achievement of 2010, Inception. What can I say? It's nothing less than a complete and utter embarrassment.

#5: The Social Network vs The King's Speech, offline
I tell ya, it's kind of uncomfortable sitting down to Christmas dinner with your entire extended family and being the only person at the table who didn't LOVE The King's Speech. I liked it, sure, and yet nearly everyone I've talked about it with has accused me of damning it with faint praise, simply because I wasn't as over-the-moon as they were. Conversely, being the only person around the water cooler who thought The Social Network was the year's best movie made it an awfully lonely season out in the real world.

#4: The Social Network vs The King's Speech, online
Normally, I take comfort in the fact that if my regular human contacts don't share the same taste in cinema as me, at least there's an enormous community of film aficionados on the Internet with whom I can commiserate in The Social Network ultimately falling short to The King's Speech. And yet, what I found online was far uglier and more oppressive than the one-sided but polite discussions that vexed me offline. Depending on who you read, you may have avoided some of it, but the noise of Social Network fans cruelly and unfairly besmirching The King's Speech was still deafening.

#3: Melissa Leo

One of the season's biggest talking points by far. Some people found her crazy award show antics endearingly eccentric, and that's their right. Just like it's my right to find them vain and tacky. From her self-centred acceptance speeches to her gaudy personal ad campaign to her accidentally-on-purpose use of the dreaded F-word on Oscar's stage, to me, it all reeked of arrogance. And to be honest, I thought the performance was good – not Oscar-good. Costar Amy Adams would have made a much more deserving and welcome winner.

#2: Alice in Wonderland
Somebody shoot me in the head. I hated this movie as soon as it hit the 30-minute mark when I first saw it last March. I wrote a quick pan and prayed that I wouldn't have to write about it for the rest of the year. Apparently, that was too much to ask. Its overcooked, uncoordinated, domineering, in-your-face design elements had no problem coasting through the season by sheer “virtue” of their retina-battering conspicuousness, eventually scooping two Oscars (a number infinitely more than it deserved), reinforcing the theory that the Academy is almost always more impressed by quantity than they are by quality.

#1: Deakins still Oscarless
Months ago, when the trailer for True Grit came out, certain bloggers boldly predicted that this would finally be Roger Deakins' year. I wanted to believe them, and I was even convinced to the point of predicting it myself after nominations, but deep down I knew their premature predictions had jinxed it. So here's a prediction for you:

Roger Deakins will NEVER win an Academy Award.

If he can't get one for the most typical of movies to win Best Cinematography, what's it going to take? The worst part is, I really want to be happy for Wally Pfister, who himself was overdue, but not by nearly as many years as Deakins. I was unable to enjoy what should have been a reason to cheer. This year's Oscar ceremony was ultimately a night I wouldn't mind forgetting, and this early catastrophe certainly set the appropriate tone.

Oscar autopsy

Another year over. And appropriately enough to the nature of the season, it ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. There were few surprises to be had, as for the second straight year I managed to correctly predict 18 of 24 winners, including all eight major categories.

The closest thing to a surprise was Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross collecting trophies for what might be the most atypical Oscar-winning score ever. I was not expecting it to win, but apparently that's one category where I should have given the voting membership the benefit of the doubt. Well done.

Unfortunately, there was little satisfaction to be had in the rest. The night's biggest disappointment came early, in cinematography god Roger Deakins failing to win an Oscar for the ninth time. Yo, Academy, do you not think he's due or something? What has he done to you to make you treat him this way? Disgusting. But to be fair, Wally Pfister is a worthy alternative. He's been putting out consistently astonishing work with Christopher Nolan for the better part of the decade now, and this win for his fourth consecutive nomination is a fitting way to applaud one of the best director/DP collaborations working today.

Other disappointment, albeit a less surprising one, came in the form of Tim Burton's hideous Alice in Wonderland winning both design categories over infinitely more deserving work. I might have known. Let this be a lesson: always always always predict for "most" to trump "best" when the Academy chooses winners here.

True Grit joins the ranks of Gangs of New York, The Turning Point, and The Color Purple as one of the biggest Oscar losers of all time, going 0 for 10. Guess the Academy didn't love it that much after all.

The King's Speech seemed to underwhelm as well, winning only four of its twelve nominations (all of them major categories though). Other multiple winners include The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Inception, the aforementioned Alice, and The Fighter, nailing down acting awards for Christian Bale and that nutty Melissa Leo, who proceeded to use the F-word on live TV. Some people are endeared to her antics and crazy behaviour, but I have to confess that I've never liked her, and her speech reeked of the same arrogance as have all her speeches this season.

The show itself left something to be desired. It didn't stink on the level of last year's fiasco, but it was pretty boring. Many reviews are pointing a finger (a bit harshly I think) at James Franco, who was either feigning reluctance to be there in a failed attempt at accenting Anne Hathaway's vibrant presence, or was actually reluctant to be there and doing a bad job at hiding it. I don't blame him for the show's overall lack of personality, but he certainly wasn't helping matters.

And that's really all there is I feel merited my commentary. All in all, not much of a finale to the season. Upsetting. But at the end of the day, some very talented artists got richly deserved recognition for their invaluable contributions to the medium we love so much, and I can never complain about that. Congrats to all the winners. I'm gonna keep a low profile in the coming months. I'll chime in here or there as we continue to experience the fallout this week, but mostly, I'll be busy looking into what 2011 has to offer us in the way of movie-going.

Thanks for reading! Enjoy your Oscar off-season.

Favourite shots from the Cinematography nominees

Some people have let me know how disappointed they were that I didn't make time in my analysis of Best Cinematography this year to highlight my favourite shots from each of the nominees as I did last year. I didn't really think anyone cared about it, but I've had requests, so I'll gladly oblige.

But first, I have to refer you to Kris Tapley's annual top ten list for the best moving images of the year; an absolute treat I look forward to reading and linking to every Oscar season.

Like last year, I'm limiting my list of shots to the five nominees for Best Cinematography, simply because I haven't the time to go sifting through all the year's movies again to find my favourites overall. Anyway, see them after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Picture

A year ago, when the Best Picture ten and that damned preferential ballot were first upon us, I questioned whether or not the conventional rules of what "can" win Best Picture would still apply. I analyzed the key nominations that the ten nominees either possessed or lacked in order to narrow them down to three frontrunners, and those three (assumed) frontrunners went on to win six of the eight major categories between them, so I'd say those conventional rules are still a fairly accurate barometer of which films are in the best position.

Let's try it again, shall we? To win Best Picture, a film needs nominations for Directing, Writing, and especially Editing. Let's see which of this year's crop have all three necessary nominations:

127 Hours: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
Black Swan: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
The Fighter: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Inception: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Kids Are All Right: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The King's Speech: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Social Network: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Toy Story 3: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
True Grit: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Winter's Bone: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (Y)

And lo, there you have your three frontrunners: The King's Speech, The Social Network, and The Fighter.

The King's Speech is obviously the one out ahead. With twelve nominations total (including three acting nods), it's poised to rule the night, likely winning between five and eight categories on its way to Best Picture. It's simply the movie that pleases across the board. Everyone will have it near, if not at the very top of their ballot.


The Fighter, with three acting bids of its own, might be considered the most formidable challenger, but The Social Network's critical respect is nothing to sneeze at, and big wins from ACE and BAFTA have given some people enough confidence to predict either a Picture/Director split or an outright upset. It might be a close race for 2nd place between those two. Sadly, we'll never know who wins.

True Grit might be in better position if it weren't for that lack of an Editing nod, but it's probably your fourth place finisher. Ten nominations is an impressive showing of support. It's troubling to imagine that it might be shut out completely. Our hopes are dangling on Roger Deakins' in Best Cinematography (gulp).

You can order the remaining six nominees however you like, but none of them stand much a shot:

-True, Black Swan and 127 Hours each have two of those three necessary nods, but they both deal with subject matter that many a conservative Academy member is simply not going to get behind. They can forget those valuable 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place votes.
-Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right have a Writing and two Acting nominations a piece, but nothing else. They're likely too small in scope to register with enough voters in order to pull off an upset.
-Toy Story 3 has that blasted animation bias to contend with, although sentimentality could go a long way in keeping it alive through the first few elimination rounds.
-Inception was probably never that well liked with this group, as the egregious snubs for Director and Editing seem to suggest. Genre bias is a bitch.

Will win (ranks):
#1 The King's Speech
#2 The Social Network
#3 The Fighter
#4 True Grit
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 Black Swan
#7 The Kids Are All Right
#8 Inception
#9 Winter's Bone
#10 127 Hours

Should win (ranks):
#1 The Social Network
#2 Black Swan
#3 Inception
#4 The Kids Are All Right
#5 Toy Story 3
#6 True Grit
#7 The King's Speech
#8 127 Hours
#9 The Fighter
#10 Winter's Bone

Should have been nominated (top five):
#1 Exit Through the Gift Shop
#2 The Illusionist
#3 Another Year
#4 Fish Tank
#5 Rabbit Hole

One Category at a Time: Director

Flip a coin folks. Much like Film Editing, here's another category that can go either the way of The Social Network of The King's Speech.

It's a funny thing, the mechanistics of the awards race. All through December it became apparent that David Fincher was the man to beat for Best Director, having snagged two dozen critics awards (including the Critics' Choice) and the Golden Globe. Even when The King's Speech stole the PGA and accrued twelve Oscar nominations, thus becoming the Best Picture frontrunner, Best Director was still David Fincher's to lose... until the DGA and its massive voting membership (most of whom work in television) handed their top honour to Tom Hooper. He became the new leader of the pack, but then his fellow countrymen in BAFTA tipped the hat in Fincher's direction again, making this once more, a tight two-horse race.

To predict a split, or not predict a split?

When in doubt, go with the Best Picture winner. And go with it I shall.

Naturally, the nominee who deserves it the most - Darren Aronofsky for his dazzling execution of Black Swan - has the least shot of winning. Figures.

As for the Coens and David O. Russell, I'm happy for them. Honest. But I can't pretend like they belong here over the likes of Christopher Nolan. True Grit was a helluva good popcorn movie, but had so little personality outside of the performances. And The Fighter is simply overrated. Not that I blame Russell so much for its garbled structure and arrhythmia, but I still don't really consider it a great achievement in directing.

Will win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Runner-up: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

This is just one of many tight races that will be decided on Oscar night. The King's Speech and The Social Network are neck-in-neck. As I've stated before, the cause for uncertainty stems from the two conflicting schools of thought on how the general Academy votes on these categories that they might not understand; do they vote for the movie they liked better, or for the movie with the more noticeable craft? There are probably plenty of voters who fall into either camp, but as to which camp is more populated is anybody's guess.

At least it comes down the two most deserving nominees, in my opinion. Tariq Anwar does a terrific job at punctuating the actors' performances with shrewd shot selection for The King's Speech, and Baxter and Wall give The Social Network a flow that can't be topped. Either of them would make a fine winner in lieu of Lee Smith, who suffered the most egregious snub of the year when the editors branch gave Inception the kick.
The only clue I can look to for guidance (or misguidance as the case may be) is the ACE Eddie, which has gone to the eventual Oscar winner for the last nine consecutive years, almost always in the Drama category. The Social Network took that this year, so I'm gonna put my faith in the trend.

As for the also-rans, there's some decent work on display, most notably Andrew Weisblum's cutting of Black Swan. I don't relish the task of trying to moderate and control Aronofsky's off-the-wall visuals. The boxing sequences in The Fighter were well put together by Pamela Martin, and John Harris certainly amped up the intensity in 127 Hours (even if I'm not exactly on board with that directorial decision).

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inception

MPSE winners!

This is a pretty good slate. Inception took home two deserved trophies for Richard King's terrific sound design and for the outstanding integration of Hans Zimmer's music. It's the one with the Oscar heat in this category, but there's still a chance True Grit could upset.

The Social Network, meanwhile, impressed the organization with its tricky tidying-up of Aaron Sorkin's dizzying dialogue. Fine choice, but I may have liked to see TRON Legacy take that category.

Finally, I'm thrilled to see Randy Thom get his due for How to Train Your Dragon, the best sound editing of the year sadly overlooked by Oscar.

Best Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Film: The Social Network
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Music, Dialogue and ADR in a Animated Feature Film: How to Train Your Dragon Sweet!
Best Music Editing in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Music Editing in a Musical Feature: Country Strong
Best Sound Editing in a Documentary: Rush: Beyond the Lighted Stage
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in a Foreign Feature: Micmacs

ACE Eddie winners!

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic): The Social Network
Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical): Alice in Wonderland
Best Edited Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Edited Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop

We can all pretend that Alice in Wonderland winning over The Kids Are All Right and Scott Pilgrim in the Comedy category never really happened right? Right?... Good. Glad we agree.

So other than that bit of unpleasantness, this is a pretty terrific group of winners. I'm doing cartwheels right now for Tom Fulford and Chris King, who were rightfully recognized for what is the best editing job of the year on Exit Through the Gift Shop. Gotta hand it to Lee Unkrich and Ken Schretzmann as well on their hard-earned win for editing Toy Story 3.

But the most encouraging sign of the night was Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall's win for The Social Network. ACE has awarded the eventual Oscar winner for Film Editing for the last nine years in a row! This gives me hope. I love Tariq Anwar's cutting of The King's Speech and all, but I couldn't help but think what a shame it would be if it beat the most impeccably paced film of the year to that Editing Oscar. Now I feel I can safely call The Social Network in that category. Fingers crossed!

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

This is gonna be the most nerve-wracking category of the night for me. Usually, I try not to emotionally invest myself in anything related to Oscar... but I wanna see Roger Deakins win for once, dammit! The man has shot some of my all-time favourite movies, and some of the most memorable images I've ever seen committed to film. If I have to watch him lose for the eighth time I'm gonna stick my head in an oven... and pump that oven full of chlorine gas... and then launch it into the sun.

What's worse is I'm actually predicting him to win, so if he doesn't there's the added sting of having guessed the category wrong. It's quite possible I will be wrong as well. You could make a strong case for any of the nominees winning.

Well, okay, maybe not so much The Social Network. Not that I don't admire Jeff Cronenweth's fine work, but it just doesn't say ''Oscar winner'' to me. But the other four nominees are all plausible victors.

Black Swan has the NY and LA film critics prizes under its tutu, but what it really has going for it is the sheer maddening brilliance of Lebatique and Aronofsky's vision.

Inception has the Critics' Choice and ASC going for it, plus that exhilarated feeling it leaves audiences with as they walk out of the theatre. Wally Pfister had better win an Oscar someday.

The King's Speech has the Best Picture frontrunner factor in it favour, and a potential sweep that threatens to rob dozens of deserving craftspeople of their rightful Oscars. Not that Danny Cohen's framing isn't effective. It's just not the best of the year.

Finally, True Grit has the BAFTA in hand and is the most traditionally beautiful of the five; postcard-perfect vistas and gorgeous lighting (Deakins' specialty, don'tchya know), which may be all it needs to eke out a win. The fact that it's clearly a well liked movie helps.

Damn well better win: True Grit
Runner-up: The King's Speech

Should win: Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island

One Category at a time: Original Score

Not sure how to feel about this category. On the one hand, I could rejoice that my three favourite scores of the year all managed nominations from this often-questionable branch. On the other hand, I could despair that all of them are likely to lose to a far inferior score. On the other hand, the composer of said score should have won two years ago, and it'd be nice to see him win the Oscar he should already have. On the other hand, it'd be annoying to see him win his Oscar for a score that doesn't even come close to the inventiveness and memorability of his previous work, let alone his fellow nominees this year. What's a guy to do?

That score which is causing me so much grief is Alexandre Desplat's for The King's Speech. It looks like the one that's going to win to me, but deep down, it just doesn't sound right, does it?

What Hans Zimmer did on Inception is a brilliant accomplishment in building mood and intensity. John Powell's music, enjoyable and beautiful, makes How to Train Your Dragon soar. The identity Reznor and Ross infused into The Social Network is highly unique; a completely successful defiance of convention that works without intruding. They're all the epitome of effective and unforgettable music.

And then there's The King's Speech...

...and I struggle to find something to say. Not to sully Desplat's elegant work with petty quibbles, but I get the feeling that (assuming he wins) this'll be one of those Oscar wins that people will look back on 50 years from now, scrunch their noses and say, "Really?"

Could Inception upset? They may not like the movie enough. How to Train Your Dragon? Not a Best Picture nominee. The Social Network? Too atypical.

Oh yeah, A.R. Rahman (who robbed Desplat of the Oscar he should have won two years ago) is also nominated, but I don't think 127 Hours has enough support to factor into the equation here.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Inception

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy

King's Speech woos BAFTA

Surprise, surprise. Seven BAFTAs seems just about what I would have thought for The King's Speech, although I wasn't quite expecting it to take three of the four acting prizes. Helena Bonham Carter winning Best Supporting Actress is only semi-surprising, given frontrunner Melissa Leo's lack of a nomination, but Geoffrey Rush upsetting Christian Bale... let's just hope this doesn't materialize with the Academy.

What most surprises me is that it only took home one craft award (for Original Score). Most people are preparing themselves for an Oscar sweep of sorts, but BAFTA has done a nice job spreading the wealth around. Some choices are dubious, like two awards for Alice in Wonderland (including Costume Design, its biggest Oscar opportunity), but others are inspired, like the Film Editing win for The Social Network. And despite all odds, Inception keeps picking up those richly deserved but hardly expected citations for its year-best Production Design. Might there be hope for Oscar after all?

Black Swan's impressive nomination tally of 12 yielded only a single win for Natalie Portman, but that should hopefully be enough to help her fend off a late surge from Annette Bening.

And what of David Fincher's win? Is he strong enough to overcome Tom Hooper?

Obviously The King's Speech is still going to win Best Picture, but The King's Sweep is looking a bit vulnerable.

Best Film – The King’s Speech
Best Director – The Social Network – David Fincher
Best Leading Actress – Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Best Leading Actor – Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress – Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actor – Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Best Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech – David Seidler
Outstanding British Film – The King’s Speech
Outstanding British Debut – Four Lions – Chris Morris
Best Cinematography – True Grit – Roger Deakins
Best Editing – The Social Network – Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
Best Original Music – The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat
Best Production Design – Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood
Best Sound – Inception – Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick
Best Special Visual Effects – Inception – Corbould, Franklin, Lockley, Bebb
Best Make Up & Hair – Alice in Wonderland – Valli O’Reilly, Paul Gooch
Best Short Film – Until the River Runs Red – Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis
Best Short Animation – The Eagleman Stag – Michael Please
Best Film Not in the English Language – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Animated Film – Toy Story 3
Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award – Tom Hardy

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

In the years I've been doing this I don't believe I've ever guessed both Sound categories correctly (though I've come awfully close). This year has me similarly unsure of myself, as both categories could come down to either of two movies.

The obvious choice in this category, Inception, may actually be less safe than assumed. There's no denying the sophistication of the mix, and the sheer volume of it is all it'll need to convince some voters, but I get the nagging feeling that it's vulnerable to an upset (in both categories) by True Grit. The mixing team (who, in my opinion, should have won this category for No Country for Old Men three years ago) has done a terrific job that's nuanced but noticeable enough to draw votes away from Inception. Love for the film may push it across the finish line here. I'm not ballsy enough to predict it, but I smell a mini-upset in the works.

If it ends up being either The Social Network or The King's Speech, then there's your Best Picture sweeper right there. But those mixes are probably too subtle to register with the Academy at large.

Congrats to Greg P. Russell on his 14th career nomination for Salt. Shame that he's destined to lose yet again. Step up, Academy! Give the man his Oscar. And while you're at it, give one to Kevin O'Connell as well.

Will win: Inception
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Black Swan

WGA winners

Adapted: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Original: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Documentary: Charles Ferguson, Inside Job

GREAT trio of winners. Even if I might have preferred to see The Kids Are All Right bring a prize to Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, it's great to see Christopher Nolan receive his due for one of the most impressive filmmaking accomplishments of the year.

Aaron Sorkin continues to clean up, deservedly so, and Charles Ferguson snatched up a major award for his excellent breakdowns and effective explanations in Inside Job.

WGA, ADG, Annie Preview

Having won the USC Scripter prize just last night with Ben Mezrich, Aaron Sorkin is likely to continue The Social Network's screenwriting winning streak with an Adapted Screenplay win at tonight's WGA awards. Any winner other than him would be a total shock.

As for Original Screenplay, intriguing scenario. David Seidler's soon-to-be-Oscar-winning script for The King's Speech is ridiculously ineligible, of course, so who takes it? Could they tip a hat to Christopher Nolan in consolation of his Director snub by the Academy? Could the general affection felt towards The Fighter push its team of writers to a win? Or will this be the one major industry prize Lisa Cholodenko (along with Stuart Blumberg) can lay claim to this season? I'm hoping for and predicting the latter. The Kids Are All Right is just too good a movie for her to go completely unrewarded this year.

Let's not forget two other industry groups announcing their winners tonight; The ADG and the Annie Awards.

I see The King's Speech, Alice in Wonderland, and Black Swan emerging victorious with the art directors, while the animation academy will probably provide How To Train Your Dragon with a hearty love fest, given how much of their organization is composed of Dreamworks employees.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

This past weekend saw the awards race continue to take a turn for the worse as The King's Speech strolled through the DGA and SAG awards that aught rightfully have gone to more deserving films. It's likely heading for a sweep of sorts, much to the detriment of the superior Social Network, but there's at least one category where Fincher's film won't be in direct competition with the kingly juggernaut.
Needless to say, anybody other than Aaron Sorkin nabbing the Adapted Screenplay prize would be an utter shock and embarrassment. What he accomplished with The Social Network is one of the finest pieces of intelligent and artful screenwriting in years.

That being said, the rest of the field is still a respectable bunch. True Grit is wonderfully written by the Coens, as always, featuring period-appropriate dialogue and an excellent sense of timing. Toy Story 3 is also one of the year's best scripts (although it should be competing in the Original category), lingering on the verge of greatness for the first 90 minutes, and then finally not only meeting it, but exceeding it with that potent, beautiful ending. Danny Boyle's innovation as a filmmaker continued exploring tricky and challenging territory with his and Simon Beaufoy's unique work in 127 Hours, and Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini did a fine job at building intrigue in the grainy Winter's Bone.

It's a shame David Lindsey-Abaire's Rabbit Hole or Polanski & Harris' The Ghost Writer couldn't find room here, but at the end of the day, it's a moot point.

The Academy 'Likes' Aaron Sorkin.

Will win: The Social Network
Runner-up: True Grit

Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Rabbit Hole

SAG preview

I don't know if I'm gonna watch these tonight. It's an awfully long show and there are only five categories I give a damn about, and even saying that is a stretch.

We know who's going to win Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor (and probably Stunt Ensemble), but Best Ensemble and Supporting Actress are still very much up in the air.

If Melissa Leo triumphs here as she did at the Globes and the Critics' Choice, it looks like the Oscar is hers. But if anyone other than her wins, I think that gives an edge in the race to Hailee Steinfeld, who could benefit from vote splitting between Leo and her Fighter costar Amy Adams (who actually gives the better performance).

Best Ensemble could go three ways as I see it. If The Social Network wins, then it jumps back into a dead heat with The King's Speech for Best Picture. The actors make up almost a third of the Academy membership, and a vote of confidence from them is a powerful advantage. If The King's Speech wins, then it adds more fuel to the fire. Or it could go to The Fighter, if they don't think awards for Bale and Leo is reward enough, and that throws a whole new monkey wrench into the works.

My Predictions:
Best Ensemble: The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Stunt Ensemble: Incpetion

Hooper, Ferguson take DGA honours

Well fuck.

I might have known this was going to happen. The King's Speech director Tom Hooper is probably in the driver's seat now. Having won the DGA (with BAFTA likely to follow) and directed the film that's going to win Best Picture, I'd say his "coup de directeur" is in full swing. I guess critics' darling The Social Network was just that; a critics' darling.

But maybe Fincher can still come out with a win on Oscar night despite this guild hiccup. Is there a precedent? Turns out the most recent case is when Chicago's Rob Marshall snagged the guild prize away from Polanski and Scorsese in 2003, only to lose the Oscar to more deserving and more overdue Polanski (nice move, Academy!). However, I don't think Fincher has achieved quite that level of "overdue" just yet, and remember Chicago was a musical, the directors of which haven't been taken seriously as Best Director winners since Bob Fosse won for Cabaret nearly 40 years ago!

In more pleasing news, the DGA awarded their documentary honour to perceived Oscar frontrunner Charles Ferguson for his excellent Inside Job. Being the only documentary this year nominated by all four major guilds, I'd say it's a safe call, although the delightful Exit Through the Gift Shop is an intriguing spoiler possibility. People just love that movie. I'll jump for joy if it manages a surprise win.

One Category at a Time: Actor

What more can really be said? Everyone who follows movie awards (and even those who don't!) knows that Colin Firth is winning an Academy Award on February 27th. And not without good reason. His turn as the Duke of York is a heartfelt portrayal of damaged self-esteem, and he handles his character's transformation into a humble but unafraid leader with grace and emotion.

Even though it's a foregone conclusion that Firth has it in the bag, it's still worth tipping the hat to his fellow nominees, who comprise a stellar lineup. It's pleasing to see Javier Bardem's understated but devastating work in Biutiful didn't go unrewarded (even if it came at the expense of Ryan Gosling). Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are on hand to represent the younger Hollywood generation with a pair of outstanding performances -- in The Social Network and 127 Hours respectively -- that paint vivid portraits of human nature and the consequences of our failure to connect with others (or the pleasures of our succeeding to do so). And of course, coming off his long-time-coming victory last year, Jeff Bridges is back in vogue for an unforgettable and highly enjoyable scenery-chewing outing in True Grit.

It's a scene-stealer to be sure, but not an Oscar-stealer. Having won nearly every critics award, the Golden Globe, the Critics' Choice, and soon the SAG, I'll be shocked if anyone other than Colin Firth wins it.

Will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Runner-up: Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

My 2010 Award winners!

You've seen the nominees. Time to see my winners:

Best Picture:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin, David Fincher)


Best Director:
DARREN ARONOFSKY, BLACK SWAN


Best Actor:
JESSE EISENBERG, THE SOCIAL NETWORK


Best Actress:
KATIE JARVIS, FISH TANK


Best Supporting Actor:
ED HARRIS, THE WAY BACK


Best Supporting Actress:
LESLEY MANVILLE, ANOTHER YEAR


Best Acting Ensemble:
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Laura Rosenthal)


Best Original Screenplay:
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg)


Best Adapted Screenplay:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Aaron Sorkin)


Best Cinematography:
BLACK SWAN (Matthew Lebatique)


Best Film Editing:
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP (Tom Fulford, Chris King)


Best Original Score:
INCEPTION (Hans Zimmer)


Best Original Song:
“SHINE” from WAITING FOR SUPERMAN (John Legend)


Best Production Design, Set Decoration, and Art Direction:
INCEPTION (Guy Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas Mowat, Brad Ricker)


Best Costume Design:
GET LOW (Julie Weiss)


Best Sound Mixing:
BLACK SWAN (Ken Ishii, Craig Henighan, Dominick Tavella)


Best Sound Editing:
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (Al Nelson, Randy Thom, Jonathan Null)


Best Visual Effects:
INCEPTION (Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb)


Best Makeup and Hair:
THE WOLFMAN (Rick Baker, Lisa Westcott)


Best Animated Feature:
TOY STORY 3 (Lee Unkrich)


Best Foreign Film:
THE ILLUSIONIST (Sylvain Chomet)


Best Documentary:
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP (Banksy)


That makes three wins apiece for The Social Network, Black Swan, Inception, and two wins apiece for The Kids Are All Right and Exit Through the Gift Shop.

My Award nominations for 2010

Here's a one-stop recap of my own annual awards. I'll post the winners tomorrow.

The nomination leaders are Inception with 11, Black Swan with 9, The Social Network with 8, and The Kids Are All Right with 6.

Best Picture
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
Toy Story 3