The King's Sweep

There seems to be two philosophies dominating the predictions I see floating around in the Oscarweb; those of foresee a sweep for The King's Speech, and those who foresee the Academy spreading the love.

A King's Speech sweep could win as many as eleven awards, including:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design

(I don't think it can win Sound Mixing)

whereas if AMPAS decides to share the wealth, it could look something like this:
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director - David Fincher
Best Actor - Colin Firth
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo or Hailee Steinfeld
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Cinematography - True Grit
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Original Score - The King's Speech
Best Art Direction - Alice in Wonderland
Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland

The real problem is those craft categories. A common theory is the general Academy, uneducated about the specifics of tech awards, merely vote for the "most" instead of the "best". The King's Speech indeed has fine editing, production design, costume design, photography, and music, but it doesn't boast the "most" of any of those things. This is especially true in Costume Design where I suspect BFCA and BAFTA winner Alice in Wonderland is a real threat.

Which case will we see on Oscar night? The love-in or the love-spreading? Maybe a little bit of both. I continue to hold out hope for Roger Deakins to collect his long overdue Oscar, and I just don't see either Carter or Rush pulling out wins (although Leo's foolish personal campaign and Carter's BAFTA win put her in prime upset position).

And what about Best Director? It's practically a toss up between Hooper and Fincher. So many uncertainties.

Here's a prediction for you: I'm going to guess more categories wrong this year than I have in years!