Early Oscar Predictions: Music

Obviously, it's impossible to judge a film's soundtrack before it's released, or even recorded which may be the case with many of this year's upcoming prospects. Thankfully for us obsessive prognosticators, the music branch has some old habits that can lay the foundation for early guesswork. For starters, they are notoriously insular, usually only choosing one or two first-time nominees per year in the Best Original Score category.

So who are some branch favourites with multiple irons in the fire this year?

Oscar Postmortem Pt. 1: The Results

Happy New Year, everybody!

With the Oscars having come and gone (after three long hours at the end of three long months), it feels like 2014 is now officially over, and a new cinematic cycle has thankfully begun. But, since I, like most Oscar obsessives (or any kind of obsessive), have trouble letting go, it'll be about a week before I finally cease writing about 2014 in this space. Heed the lessons learned by Cheryl Strayed
(for whom they picked an awful Best Actress clip, btw); Closure takes time.
And so I must always allow myself several days to fully process the mad rush of euphoria and anguish that floods me before, during, and after this annual event.

My post-dated “live” blog of the Oscar telecast itself will arrive later this week, followed by my usual top ten of personal highs and lows of the 2014-15 awards season. But for today, its all about who won and who lost, and my immediate reactions to those, which I should document for posterity before my mind instinctively turns to 2015-16.

For starters, my own prediction results:

One Category at a Time: Original Score

There's nothing more frustrating for an awards pundit than being able to narrow a category down to two realistic outcomes, but then being forced to flip a coin between them. So it is this year with Best Original Score, which is, for me, an even more hair-pulling exercise in prediction waffling than the tightly contested Best Director and Picture races.

But first, let's whittle things down with some process of elimination.

BAFTA Clarifies Some Races, Obscures Others

So the EE British Academy of Film and Television Awards just wrapped up not long ago, but you won't get to watch the ceremony until later tonight because for all their fine cinematic tastes, the organization still hasn't evolved past their daft custom of broadcasting the show after all the winners are all public knowledge. Get with the times, BAFTA!

Anyway, I'm not really interested in the program so much as the results. Boyhood shrugged off last night's possibly crippling DGA loss to keep its Oscar hopes afloat. Also winning for the film were Patty Arquette (lock) and director Richard Linklater (not so much a lock).

Other big winners include The Grand Budapest Hotel with five, and The Theory of Everything and Whiplash with three. Oscar frontrunner Birdman took home only a single honour for Emmanuel Lubezki's virtuoso cinematography.

But what I was hoping this last major precursor of the season could really do is help illuminate some of the Academy's more unpredictable races. The British Academy is, after all, similar in membership size to AMPAS, and can therefore offer some clues on what sort of films will appeal to a large group in certain categories.

My Award Nominations: Best Original Score

Happy Superbowl Sunday, everyone! Today's updates to my own personal awards ballot are all about the music.

It was a remarkably rich and diverse year for film scoring, and I had a tough time narrowing my preferences down to just the five Best Original Scores. It was a bit tougher find suitable candidates for the adapted scores, but I'll get to those this afternoon.

Here are the originals. Have a listen!

Review - Unbroken

Louie Zamperini has an incredible life story to tell. The odds were already stacked against him from a young age, growing up as one of four children of an immigrant family in Depression-era California. In spite of this, he made a name for himself as a competitive distance runner, represented America in the Berlin Olympics, served his country as a bombardier in WWII, survived a plane crash that left him stranded for 47 days in the Pacific Ocean, and lived out the remainder of the war in a Japanese POW camp under the harshest conditions imaginable.

Just that cursory synopsis of his bio is enough to make one wonder why his life story hasn't been made into a major motion picture already, but we finally get one in the form of Angelina Jolie's Unbroken, which arrived on Christmas Day. Zamperini passed away in July at 97 years of age, and while no one wants to rain on the posthumous parade of a man who endured through so much struggle, the sad reality is that an incredible true story does not necessarily an incredible movie make.

Unbroken is just not that good a film; A clichéd exercise that reaches for artificial inspiration while saying very little about the figure who serves as its subject. The problem is not in the story, but in the storytelling, as it fails to shape Zamperini's harrowing saga into any kind of effective structure.

One Category at a Time: Original Score

There are all sorts of theories on how the Academy votes for Best Original Score, arguably the most subjective of the craft categories. Appraisal of music is so prone to personal tastes that just when you think you've got the Academy pegged, they go and do something unpredictably awful (like award Gustavo Santaolalla a second consecutive Oscar for a score that makes liberal use of pre-existing compositions) or go and do something unpredictably cool (like give Trent Reznor an Oscar for an extremely atypical electronic soundtrack).

Reviews - Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street

Late December is often a time for family, but it's also a time for glutting on awards season movies, with multiple high-profile titles being released weekly. Naturally, families head out to the theatre on their precious days off in early winter, but finding the right flick for everyone can be a challenge.

To help you narrow things down (ever so slightly), here is a two-fisted review for a double feature I call the “Take-Your-Mom///DON'T-Take-Your-Mom Double Bill”. The comprising films: Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street.

Now far be it for me to presume your mother's cinematic tastes, but if (like many people's moms) she's one of those Downton Abbey devotees who prefers lite drama of the genteel variety, or is simply convinced that British film and television is 'just better' than everything else, then it's hard to imagine her disliking Philomena.

Based on the 2009 non-fiction The Lost Child of Philomena Lee by journalist Martin Sixsmith (played in the film by Steve Coogan, who also co-produced and co-wrote the screenplay), it follows the travails of a darling old Irish woman (Judi Dench in the title role) as she and Sixsmith attempt to track down the long lost son that was taken from her fifty years ago. The jaded Sixsmith is only there to write a human interest story, a project which the former political correspondent considers quite beneath him. But as a surrogate mother-son relationship develops between the two, it isn't so unpredictable to see that Philomena has more to teach him than he realizes.

Early Oscar predictions - Part 5

Here are the last four categories I have to run down before finalizing my early predictions: Score, Song, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.

One Category at a Time: Original Score

Best Original Score feels kinda wide open this year. Sure, you could essentially eliminate the two nominees that aren't also up for Best Picture, but of the other three, any of them could win.

My Award nominations: Original Score

Only one of my own Best Original Score nominees went on to be nominated for the Oscar, but that doesn't undercut what a diverse year it's been for film music. The other four that found room on the Academy's slate are quite terrific, even if they didn't find room on mine:

IFMCA nominees

Composers in Hollywood don't have a guild or trade group to give us hints as to Oscar potential like other craft sectors, but each year we get to see what the International Film Music Critics Association thinks represents the best of the year, and it's always a treat! The organization drops their nominees well after Oscar nominations, and with a plethora of categories, they often spotlight artists that the Academy's insular branch overlooks, like TRON Legacy's Daft Punk two years ago or Drive's Cliff Martinez last year.

This year's nominees include wonderful but sadly Oscar-snubbed scores like Cloud Atlas, Rise of the Guardians, The Dark Knight Rises, and others. The biggest presence on this slate is enjoyed by Alexandre Desplat, with four nominations including Composer of the Year (he's gotta win that one, right?).

Film Score of the Year
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek, Reinhold Heil)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
The Impossible (Fernando Velázquez)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
Lincoln (John Williams)

I'm guessing this comes down to the two Oscar nominees, Lincoln and Life of Pi. They gave it to Williams last year, and it looks like Mychael Danna is on route to Oscar, so it might be his to lose.

Golden Globe nominees

Busy week for precursor nominations. First the Critics Choice Awards, then the Screen Actors Guild, and now this morning we have the slate from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. With all three groups, Lincoln leads in the nomination tally (though it's tied with Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miz for SAG).

For all the annual allegations about the Globes' "star-f***ing" tendencies, no one can ever accuse them of being a group without an identity. With all the critics likely to line up behind the same names over and over, it's refreshing to see some nominations spring up here that we're not likely to see repeated again this season. They're the first group to support Django Unchained in a big way, handing it five nominations after it was shut out by SAG. And I highly doubt we'll see Salmon Fishing in the Yemen mentioned by any more awards bodies this year.

Full list of motion picture nominees with accompanying commentaries after the cut.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Django is the surprise here. This is a much needed boost for its flagging Oscar prospects.

Best Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
"The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Miserables"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"
I would have anticipated all of these but for Salmon Fishing. It played TIFF last year, so I'm surprised it got remembered.

Review - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Oscar-charmed filmmaker Stephen Daldry takes us on an autistic odyssey in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The film follows Oskar Schell (played by the impossibly precocious Thomas Horn), an insatiably curious child who struggles to make sense of his father's senseless death in wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As he scours NYC for the lock to a key left behind by his dad (Tom Hanks), he meets a diverse kaleidoscope of people, but grows emotionally distant from his mourning mother (Sandra Bullock).

My Awards nominations: Original Score

My options for the best Original Score of the year:

The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams):

Busy orchestrations with lots of jazzy ornaments mixed in for distinction, actually making it a closer cousin of Williams' Catch Me If You Can than Indiana Jones, but still with loads of exciting fast-paced compositions.

The Artist (Ludovic Bource):

Hard not to enjoy the romantic swells and antiquated whimsy of Bource's music. He has to become the voice of the entire picture, and he takes up the challenge with aplomb.

Hanna (The Chemical Brothers):

The hypnotic electronic rhythms are a key aural element to this stylized actioner, lending a unique sonic flavour to each scene in which it is used. Another notch on the belt of progressive scoring.

The Ides of March (Alexandre Desplat):

Quietly dissonant background strings masked by more obvious stoccatic beats, kinda like how the drama of dirty campaign managing is masked by the frontdrop posters, platforms, and politics.

War Horse (John Williams):

A sweeping, old school Williams score with melodious themes and robust arrangements. It basically comes down to whether or not you like old school Williams scores, and I do. I really do.

Just missed:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Review - The Ides of March

One only need know the title of George Clooney's The Ides of March – aptly named for the day of a fateful backstabbing – to suspect that this political drama is less to do with public policy and more to do with the cutthroat chess match that plays itself out on the other side of the curtain. As designed by Clooney and his co-writers Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon (the latter of whom penned the original play), the actual issues are peripheral as seen from the vacuum in which jaded campaign strategists ply their splenetic trade; people are played against each other, secrets divulged, secrets kept, trust severed, but all with a purpose. All for the cause of The Campaign.

One Category at a Time: Best Original Score / Song

I'll get these categories out of the way early because there simply is no logical way to go about predicting the nominees until the music has been heard. For Best Original Score, it isn't unreasonable to just pick Best Picture nominees or films with notable composers.

I get the feeling Alexandre Desplat was real close to winning this year for The King's Speech, but it ended up going to Reznor and Ross, whose work was more deserving anyway. Besides, Desplat will have many more opportunities. He scores so many films a year it's hard to keep count! He already has four lined up for 2011, including Terrence Malick's much anticipated The Tree of Life.

John Williams hasn't been nominated in a while (2006 for Memoirs of a Geisha and Munich), but he's got two Spielberg films to garner him some attention from the music branch, including possible Best Picture contender War Horse.

Could the elegant tones and orchestrations that helped Dario Marianelli to nominations for Pride and Prejudice and Atonement (which he went on to win) help him gain some traction for Jane Eyre? The early release is a hindrance, but sometimes a film from the first half of the year can survive it to the nominations.

Were it not for his Oscar-winning score to Up last year, I think Michael Giacchino may have still been in the running for his work on Star Trek. He's got another chance this summer to get our pulses racing with J.J. Abrams Super 8, which has many a movie fan shivering with excitement. If not that, maybe Cars 2?

James Newton Howard is still waiting for his first Oscar after eight nominations, the most recent of which came two years ago for Defiance. He's got a few titles in the running this year, including the adaptation of the bestselling Water for Elephants.

Predicted five:
Jane Eyre
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Water for Elephants

Best Original Song is anyone's guess. Who knows what films will have songs? Animated features often feature one or two, so I suppose I'll guess:

Cars 2
Happy Feet 2
The Muppets
Winnie the Pooh

IFMA winners!

Film Score of the Year: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Composer of the Year: Alexandre Desplat
Best Score for an Animated Film: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Best Score for a Drama Film: Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Best Score for an Action/Adventure/Thriller Film: Alexandre Desplat, The Ghost Writer
Best Score for a Comedy Film: Pinar Toprak, The Lightkeepers.
Best Score to a Fantasy/Science Fiction/Horror Film: Daft Punk, TRON: Legacy
Best Score for a Documentary Film: Bruno Coulais, Oceans
Best Individual Composition: Danny Elfman, “Alice Theme” from Alice in Wonderland
Breakout Composer of the Year: Nuno Malo, Amalia

I have to say I like these winners. For the most part that is. I am a wee bit baffled as to how Danny Elfman's derivative "Alice" can be seen (or heard) as a more accomplished composition than John Powell's beautiful "Forbidden Friendship", but at least Powell took home the big prize for Best Film Score of the Year, a fitting consolation given that he stands little chance of winning the Oscar.

I'm thrilled to see Daft Punk get some due recognition for what is some of the year's most awesome music in TRON Legacy, and to see Alexandre Desplat actually win for his atmospheric Ghost Writer score, to go along with his expected win for King's Speech. It's looking like his year.

One Category at a time: Original Score

Not sure how to feel about this category. On the one hand, I could rejoice that my three favourite scores of the year all managed nominations from this often-questionable branch. On the other hand, I could despair that all of them are likely to lose to a far inferior score. On the other hand, the composer of said score should have won two years ago, and it'd be nice to see him win the Oscar he should already have. On the other hand, it'd be annoying to see him win his Oscar for a score that doesn't even come close to the inventiveness and memorability of his previous work, let alone his fellow nominees this year. What's a guy to do?

That score which is causing me so much grief is Alexandre Desplat's for The King's Speech. It looks like the one that's going to win to me, but deep down, it just doesn't sound right, does it?

What Hans Zimmer did on Inception is a brilliant accomplishment in building mood and intensity. John Powell's music, enjoyable and beautiful, makes How to Train Your Dragon soar. The identity Reznor and Ross infused into The Social Network is highly unique; a completely successful defiance of convention that works without intruding. They're all the epitome of effective and unforgettable music.

And then there's The King's Speech...

...and I struggle to find something to say. Not to sully Desplat's elegant work with petty quibbles, but I get the feeling that (assuming he wins) this'll be one of those Oscar wins that people will look back on 50 years from now, scrunch their noses and say, "Really?"

Could Inception upset? They may not like the movie enough. How to Train Your Dragon? Not a Best Picture nominee. The Social Network? Too atypical.

Oh yeah, A.R. Rahman (who robbed Desplat of the Oscar he should have won two years ago) is also nominated, but I don't think 127 Hours has enough support to factor into the equation here.

Will win: The King's Speech
Runner-up: Inception

Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy

International Film Music Critics Awards nominees

I was wondering when these would come out. I always like perusing their choices, and there were some good ones this year. Save for the omission of The Social Network, this is a damn fine group of nominees.

Alexandre Desplat leads with seven nominations. Close behind is John Powell with five.

Film Score of the Year
“The Ghost Writer” (Alexandre Desplat)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (John Powell)
“Inception” (Hans Zimmer)
“The King’s Speech” (Alexandre Desplat)
“TRON Legacy” (Daft Punk)