Oscar Noms 2016-17

Today has been too busy for me to provide any kind of in-depth response to the announcement of 2016's Oscar nominees, but here's an oversimplified rundown of The Good and The Bad (we'll hold off on The Ugly since most of these nominees are beauts). I'll have time to analyze each of the 24 races when "One Category at a Time" returns in a few weeks.

Until then, some off-the-top reactions:

THE GOOD

'Manchester' Expands Just Before Awards Start Dropping

As November winds to a close we find ourselves on the eve of awards season, which is even earlier than usual this year thanks to the National Board of Review's ridiculously premature awards announcement slated for Tuesday. Many of the titles we'll be hearing over the course of the next month from regional critics groups and the like won't even be available to the public until the last possible week of 2016, with presumed heavyweights La La Land, Fences and Silence all bowing at Christmas (or much later depending on where you live). Might this allow the established love for the marvelous Moonlight to shine through when Oscar balloting starts? One can only hope.

But another modest indie that might challenge Barry Jenkins' humanist portrait for the lion's share of critical prizes is Kenneth Lonergan's much-buzzed-about Sundance hit Manchester by the Sea, which began its gradual expansion this weekend. Much has been written about how emotionally devastating the picture is, made all the more palpable by its chilly New England environs, but audiences may be surprised to discover it's practically a comedy of manners built upon grief. Lonergan is less interested in telling a tight, tidy story than he is in simply sitting us down with these characters and trusting us to find fascination in the varied -- at times amusing -- ways they respond to tragedy (which of course, is never tight and tidy anyway).

Loving the Arrival of Strange Trolls

The first half of November is well in the books, and brought with it were a handful of releases that could figure into the Oscar race, albeit in limited ways.

Loving was a mainstay on many prediction lists for most of the year, even after the soft though respectable impression it left at Cannes. But having now been seen by a greater number of domestic press and audiences, it's looking more like a fringe contender. Jeff Nichols' telling of the story of interracial couple Richard and Mildred Loving -- who fought and won a groundbreaking Supreme Court case to have their marriage recognized in Virginia in the 1960s -- eschews the obvious Oscar-bait hooks of its premise and takes a far more low-key look at their shy personal lives.

Golden Globes live blog

6:44
The stars are arriving. The show will start in an hour and a bit. Pumped up!!!

(You can read lots of fashion snark on Twitter, including from me, but I'll keep this space clear until the show starts)

One Category at a Time: Actress

All of the acting categories seem more or less set in stone at this point in the season, but none more so than Best Actress, which features a career-best performance from a previous Oscar winner who is all but assured of winning her second. It's somewhat a shame that this race is such a done deal, considering how exciting it could have been. Think about it: Four previous Oscar winners and a beloved five-time nominee hungry for her first win, among whom three Best Picture nominees are represented... sounds on paper like it should be a nail-biter, but instead it's one of the biggest locks in the top categories. But we can really bellyache so much when the winning performance is this good? I don't think so.

Review - American Hustle

American Hustle opens, as one might expect from a movie about scammers and con-artists, with a con job; But not a con job that has anything important to do with the plot. The con job in question is a man's toupée. Spending several meticulous minutes brushing on paste, applying the shabby tuft of a hairpiece, and then elaborately combing over his side hair so that every follicle is in precisely the right place, this man, Irving Rosenfeld (Christian Bale), is attempting to con the world at large into believing that he has no bald spot.

American Hustle, the latest from writer-director David O. Russell's career reinvention as a helmer of madcap character pieces, can itself be described like that toupée: A tangled, messy, unruly concealment of a script littered with bald spots, and yet we can't help but stare in enjoyment at the sight of it. That wig, however insubstantial, is a lot more fun to watch than a head of real hair.

Golden Globes live blog

The Golden Globes are starting in about 15 minutes, and I'll be updating with my commentary on developments as they happen.

7:50 Got my port poured and ready to go. Let's end these inane red carpet interviews and get the show rolling.

8:00 And we're off!

SAG nominations

The Screen Actors Guild is the first major trade group out of the gate this year, and even though their nominees are always somewhat predictable, there's always a surprise or two to stir the pot.

Nominees and individual commentaries on the film categories after the jump.

Review - Man of Steel

With wall-to-wall action that moves faster than a locomotive, Man of Steel reinvigorates a wealth of Superman mythos for a new generation, but is far from an unqualified success. The pairing of producer Christopher Nolan and director Zach Snyder is a bit of an anomaly given their very different directorial styles, but if nothing else, Man of Steel certainly gives you a lot bang for your buck.

The script, scribed by Nolan's Dark Knight co-writer David Goyer, covers not only the already well known origin story of an alien baby who escapes the destruction of his home planet and is raised by a kindly Kansas couple, but also the saga of the man of steel's quest for self-enlightenment and his run-in with his Kryptonian enemy General Zod. That's an awful lot of material to cram into one movie – enough perhaps for two movies, one could argue.

Early Oscar predictions - Part 2

My early predictions continue with Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay. Next week I'll start looking at some of the visual craft categories.

Best Supporting Actor

Always hard to get a read on the supporting categories because a lot of contenders stem from large ensembles out of which it's hard to detect the standout without seeing the film. The Monuments Men, for instance, boasts a starry cast, but who (if any) will get the most attention. I'm taking a chance on John Goodman (also starring in Inside Llewyn Davis this year) given his career trajectory of late; featured in the last two Best Picture winners, among several other awards films... how long can it be before his first career nomination? And for which film will it be?

You could make a similar case for Michael Fassbender, who probably came close to his first nomination for Steve McQueen's Shame. He's teaming again with McQueen for Twelve Years a Salve. Perhaps an American period drama is more to the Academy's liking?

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

The Supporting Actress slate doesn't seem has chock full of legit contenders as it has in years past. Not that any of these five performances are undeserving of some Oscar love, but four of them really don't hold a candle to the fifth, making this one of the night's slam dunk categories.

My Award nominations: Supporting Actress

The field hasn't been as competitive as it has in past years, but I'm still quite satisfied with the five (well, four actually) actresses I settled on. My picks for Best Supporting Actress after the cut.

Review - The Master

It's been five years since I sat in a darkened theatre puzzling over the cinematic output of Paul Thomas Anderson. It was the peculiar final scene of his celebrated opus There Will Be Blood, which now lives in simultaneous reverence and infamy for its uber-quotable “milkshake” line and the ongoing debate it inspires between “genius!” and “hackery!”. I'll admit the bewilderment was initially off-putting, but there was a fascinating quality to what I had just seen that held my gaze even though I didn't understand it. Such a sensation lingers over the entirety of his latest picture The Master, a spellbinding head-scratcher which has been impressing critics and confounding audiences everywhere.

We first meet Freddie Quell (Joaquin Phoenix) stationed in the Pacific during the closing days of WWII, indulging in all of his most basic animal instincts, from banal activities like eating and sleeping to more masturbatory and aggressive releases. Upon returning home, he struggles with his readjustment to civilian life, hopping from place to place, his unpredictable and violent nature being an unsuitable fit for polite society. It isn't until he meets Lancaster Dodd (Philip Seymour Hoffman), a charismatic preacher of his own spiritual philosophical science called The Cause, that Freddie seems to find some direction and meaning. The high-minded Dodd also sees in Freddie a challenge finally worthy of his perceived expertise; an person he can liberate from animalistic vices and refine as an “enlightened” man.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

This category is the only interesting one in the major categories, with a shaky frontrunner primed for an upset by a couple of potential spoilers.

Said frontrunner is Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Not to take anything away from her hard-earned success this season, but I really don't see what makes her performance so special. She does a good job, but I can't say I'm as taken as everyone else appears to be. Having swept the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Award, the smart money's on her, but she feels very vulnerable. Her acceptance speeches always seem to come across as being a bit full of herself, and word that she's recently embarked upon her own personal FYC campaign may be the grain of sand that tips the scales in someone else's favour.

Someone like Hailee Steinfeld, whose terrific realization of Mattie Ross in True Grit is the best performance of the five. There's a lot of support for the film and the performance, and this may be the place the Academy recognizes it, if Deakins' cinematography doesn't come to fruition.

Or it could go to Amy Adams, who gives a superior performance to Melissa Leo's if you ask me, and who's at just the right point in her career to win an Oscar, but this strikes me as a less likely possibility, given how much support Melissa Leo is still pulling.

Helena Bonham Carter might (just barely might) shock us all if The King's Speech is really going to sweep, but probably not. As for Jackie Weaver, good for her! It's great to see unknowns get recognized for obscure films, even though you know they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Runner-up: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should have been nominated: Lesley Manville, Another Year

Review - The Fighter

I really wanted to like David O'Russell's The Fighter. Who wouldn't? An uplifting true story about boxer Micky Ward's triumphant comeback after years of being held back by his family; should be riveting stuff, and make no mistake, there's plenty to like about the film, but I ultimately found it to be a relatively underwhelming exercise in listless filmmaking.

Mark Wahlberg plays Ward, a struggling boxer trained by his crack-smoking half brother Dicky Eklund (Christian Bale) and managed by his mother (Melissa Leo). But the under-confident Ward gets a shot in the arm when his new girlfriend (the quite terrific Amy Adams) spells out how his family has been more of a hindrance than a help, all of them more concerned with attaching themselves to Micky's potential glory.

The film has a lot going for it on paper, but an uneven pace and lack of structure subdue its strengths. The first half is more about the charismatic Eklund than it is Ward, removing focus from the central character. Not that Dicky Eklund isn't fascinating to watch, and indeed, Bale delivers an impressive portrait of addiction, but it does prevent us from really getting to know or care about Micky Ward. The stirring title bout at the film's finale is strong enough to leave a good taste in my mouth leaving the theatre, but it doesn't exactly undo the indifference I felt for the rest of it.

All that said, the recent bevy of Golden Globe and SAG nominations shows a clear base of support for the film that will probably translate to a number of Oscar nods: Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (probably two) at the least, with a possibility of Film Editing as well.

**1/2 out of ****