Last quarter 'true story' Oscar bait underwhelms

I can be a tough critic to please sometimes, but I get especially grinchy during the holiday crunch when awards season group-think forces me to seek out prestige-courting biopics and true-to-life narratives for which I'd gladly have waited. In the ten days since I first set eyes upon Todd Hayne's exquisite Carol, I've struck out thrice with other Globe/BFCA heavies Trumbo, The Danish Girl, and The Big Short; All of them capitalizing on year-end kudos, whether or not they should.

Trumbo is especially unfortunate. True Hollywood stories are of inherent interest to me (and many a cinephile, I should imagine), so it really says something when I despair at how unengaged I was by Jay Roach's shapeless biopic of the legendary screenwriter, who was infamously blackballed by McCarthy-era witch hunt politics. The man himself (likely Oscar nominee Bryan Cranston) would have shuddered at the screenplay's lack of structure and payoff. The film's strong SAG haul, particularly the Best Ensemble nomination, is baffling. Sure, there are a handful of droll impersonations in there -- David James Elliott's John Wayne and Dean O'Gorman's Kirk Douglas are aces -- but everyone is play acting instead of screen acting. Yes, there is a difference. The lone exceptions are Elle Fanning and Diane Lane as the key female figures in Trumbo's life, his daughter Niki and his wife Cleo.

Directors Guild nominees

The DGA has confirmed what most prognosticators have been assuming are the top five films in the hunt for Best Picture; the directors of Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty were all nominated by the huge guild who often serve as a Best Picture bellwether. Mind you, that may not be the case this year since this precursor comes after the Academy's voting deadline, but it still serves as a good indication of what the industry at-large thinks.

Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and Steven Speilberg were all presumed safe bets for DGA nods. The only suspense (minor, at that) came in anticipating whom of Ang Lee, Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino, or David O. Russell would take the other two. So Les Mis fans can breathe a sigh of relief [phew!!!], as Hooper's nomination shores up the musical's hopes of actually winning Best Picture, but this doesn't necessarily mean he'll be nominated by AMPAS' directors branch, which is much smaller than the DGA. I may as well predict a five-for-five match up, but to see either Lee or Hooper replaced by any of Russell, Tarantino, the Andersons (Wes and P.T.), or even Michael Haneke would not surprise me.

DGA nominees
Ben Affleck for Argo
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

Review - Les Miserables

27 years after taking the world by storm, the international musical hit Les Miserables finally gets the Hollywood treatment its diehard fans have been waiting for, but not everyone will sing its praises as loudly as them. We've already heard the critics singing the song of angry men, while audience reactions seem to be as contentious as the student rebellion around which the melodrama unfolds. Detractors have trained their muskets squarely at the film's in-your-face emotive style, the very appeal of which defenders have made their barricade against such criticisms. It begs the question: Is Les Mis the sort of movie that makes necessary – or for that matter, even makes possible – an objective review? I know I struggle to extract my opinion of the film from my opinion of the source material. Where does my love of the show end and my love of the movie begin?

Despite a butt-punishing 2-hour and 38-minute run time, Les Mis is a fairly streamlined distillation of Victor Hugo's 19th century novel, in which ex-con Jean Valjean (Hugh Jackman) spends the better part of his life on the run from the law and in search of redemption. Across the years he eludes capture by the overly dedicated Inspector Javert (Russell Crowe), raises the daughter of the ill-fated Fantine (Anne Hathaway), fights in the Paris rebellion of 1832, and basically puts up with all kinds of crap (literally, in one instance!) to ensure the future happiness and security of his adopted daughter (Amanda Seyfried). Hugo spins an elaborate web of connections between these and many other characters – including the dashing Marius (Eddie Redmayne), the scheming Thenardiers (Sacha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter), and their lovelorn daughter Eponine (Samantha Barks) – through a series of outlandish coincidences that would vex Dickens.

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 2)

Completing last day's 2013 Oscar predictions kick-off, here are the remaining five films I can conceive being in the hunt for next year's Best Picture prize:

Much like the ultimately ill-fated War Horse was twelve months ago, the defacto “frontrunner” on most pundits' lists at this early stage is Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, which will star Daniel Day Lewis as the tall-hatted Civil War president. Based on cast, crew, and concept alone, it seems like a pretty solid contender for the nomination. Even if it tanks, the Speilberg faithful in the Academy can revive it.

One Category at a Time: Director

Flip a coin folks. Much like Film Editing, here's another category that can go either the way of The Social Network of The King's Speech.

It's a funny thing, the mechanistics of the awards race. All through December it became apparent that David Fincher was the man to beat for Best Director, having snagged two dozen critics awards (including the Critics' Choice) and the Golden Globe. Even when The King's Speech stole the PGA and accrued twelve Oscar nominations, thus becoming the Best Picture frontrunner, Best Director was still David Fincher's to lose... until the DGA and its massive voting membership (most of whom work in television) handed their top honour to Tom Hooper. He became the new leader of the pack, but then his fellow countrymen in BAFTA tipped the hat in Fincher's direction again, making this once more, a tight two-horse race.

To predict a split, or not predict a split?

When in doubt, go with the Best Picture winner. And go with it I shall.

Naturally, the nominee who deserves it the most - Darren Aronofsky for his dazzling execution of Black Swan - has the least shot of winning. Figures.

As for the Coens and David O. Russell, I'm happy for them. Honest. But I can't pretend like they belong here over the likes of Christopher Nolan. True Grit was a helluva good popcorn movie, but had so little personality outside of the performances. And The Fighter is simply overrated. Not that I blame Russell so much for its garbled structure and arrhythmia, but I still don't really consider it a great achievement in directing.

Will win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Runner-up: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception

Hooper, Ferguson take DGA honours

Well fuck.

I might have known this was going to happen. The King's Speech director Tom Hooper is probably in the driver's seat now. Having won the DGA (with BAFTA likely to follow) and directed the film that's going to win Best Picture, I'd say his "coup de directeur" is in full swing. I guess critics' darling The Social Network was just that; a critics' darling.

But maybe Fincher can still come out with a win on Oscar night despite this guild hiccup. Is there a precedent? Turns out the most recent case is when Chicago's Rob Marshall snagged the guild prize away from Polanski and Scorsese in 2003, only to lose the Oscar to more deserving and more overdue Polanski (nice move, Academy!). However, I don't think Fincher has achieved quite that level of "overdue" just yet, and remember Chicago was a musical, the directors of which haven't been taken seriously as Best Director winners since Bob Fosse won for Cabaret nearly 40 years ago!

In more pleasing news, the DGA awarded their documentary honour to perceived Oscar frontrunner Charles Ferguson for his excellent Inside Job. Being the only documentary this year nominated by all four major guilds, I'd say it's a safe call, although the delightful Exit Through the Gift Shop is an intriguing spoiler possibility. People just love that movie. I'll jump for joy if it manages a surprise win.

DGA Preview

They announce tonight. If either Hooper, O'Russell, or Aronofsky want any chance of overtaking Fincher, they'd better do it here. The most likely spoiler is Hooper, now that his film seems poised to take Best Picture at the Oscars, but something seems to say that Fincher is winning no matter what.

Meanwhile, Inside Job's Charles Ferguson will likely have it out against Restrepo's Tim Hetherington and Sebastien Junger for the documentary prize, seeing as their films are the only ones cited by both the DGA and AMPAS. I'm putting my money on Ferguson.

Review - The King's Speech

With an uplifting outlook, spry sense of humour, and touching portrayal of an unlikely friendship, The King's Speech makes for a satisfying piece of lite entertainment.

The Duke of York, Albert Fredrick Arthur George (or Bertie as we affectionately come to know him), has a problem. Having been neglected and mistreated all his life in the shadow of older brother Edward, the heir to their father's throne, Bertie has developed a nervous stammer that undermines him and the significance of his royal station every time he attempts to speak. His wife Elizabeth seeks the aid of Australian speech therapist Lionel Logue, who is ambitious about getting to the root of Bertie`s troubles. The mechanics of speaking is not the issue. It's poor Bertie's confidence and sense of self-worth that needs a shot in the arm, especially with WWII looming on the horizon.

Colin Firth is quite excellent as Bertie. He's able to elicit our sympathy easily enough, but it's the more rough-around-the-edge qualities like his quick temper and social elitism that bring a sense of humanity to his character. He plays very well with Geoffrey Rush as Logue, enjoying a warm but sometimes tense chemistry from which stems the movie's heart. Themes about class distinctions and inequality are made, albeit a tad bluntly, by David Seidler's witty script, and are fleshed out even more by Eve Stewart's magnificent production design.

Obviously, anyone who even reads this site and others like it already knows that this film is an Oscar frontrunner. Nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Art Direction, Costume Design, and probably Original Score are on their way. I'd be really pleased to see it nab a nomination for film editor Tariq Anwar as well, whose shrewd cutting does a terrific job at evoking just the right tone for each scene.

*** out of ****