There's only one possible scenario I can envision in which Christian Bale does not win this; a bona fide sweep for The King's Speech. If the voters really are as lazy as that when they have their ballots in hand, and vote for the film in every category, Geoffrey Rush can ride that pony all the way to podium. But that's not gonna happen. Performances are one thing that Academy members will vote for based on their own merits, rather than the merits of the film. That, or they vote for whichever star they like, and the way Bale's been walking the rope line and charming his way through the circuit, I can't see him not winning this. It also helps that his performance is by far more complex and fully realized than Rush's good-humoured but comparatively thin one.Oh yeah, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, and Mark Ruffalo are all nominated too, but they're just along for the ride, which is too bad because they delivered some of the finest performances of the year, all of them making my own top five. Renner had us on edge all the way, Hawkes nailed nastiness and goodness all at once, and Ruffalo made easy-going look so much easier than it truly is! I really wish any of them could have won something this year, but you can't derail Bale!
Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Should win: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Should have been nominated: Ed Harris, The Way Back
