One Category at a Time: Original Score

Along with Best Art Direction, this is the only other craft category that I think we can assume is locked up. And I have to say that I rather like the lineup, myself. Even with the silly disqualification of Drive and the inevitable snubs of Hanna and The Ides of March, the music branch still managed to pin down five of the year's best scores.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

As it is with Best Original Screenplay, the crop of Adapted Screenplay nominees this year includes the two legitimately best adapted screenplays of the year, but also a couple I could have done without. It's still a good lineup on the whole, and the race between the two frontrunners is just close enough for me to have an active rooting interest in this category.

Reactions to 84th Oscar nominations

It all went down this morning more or less as expected. Hugo and The Artist unsurprisingly led the field of 2011/12 nominees with 11 and 10 Oscar nominations respectively. The next closest were Moneyball and War Horse with six apiece, followed closely by The Descendants and Dragon Tattoo with five (although the latter was squeezed out of the Best Picture lineup).

The most notable of the few inconsequential surprises was the breadth of the Best Picture slate, which ended accommodating nine nominees. Apparently Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close wasn't dead in the water after all; it was just extremely quiet and incredibly close to a Best Picture nomination. I thought I had dodged a bullet in not having to watch this critically derided film, but now I'll have to check it out. With only one other nomination under its belt (for sentimental favourite Max von Sydow, who could stealthily usurp Plummer's long overdue Oscar), one can't help but feel that this particular Best Picture nominee is out of place. This year's Blind Side? I'll hold off on a true opinion until I see it.

My Awards nominations: Original Score

My options for the best Original Score of the year:

The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams):

Busy orchestrations with lots of jazzy ornaments mixed in for distinction, actually making it a closer cousin of Williams' Catch Me If You Can than Indiana Jones, but still with loads of exciting fast-paced compositions.

The Artist (Ludovic Bource):

Hard not to enjoy the romantic swells and antiquated whimsy of Bource's music. He has to become the voice of the entire picture, and he takes up the challenge with aplomb.

Hanna (The Chemical Brothers):

The hypnotic electronic rhythms are a key aural element to this stylized actioner, lending a unique sonic flavour to each scene in which it is used. Another notch on the belt of progressive scoring.

The Ides of March (Alexandre Desplat):

Quietly dissonant background strings masked by more obvious stoccatic beats, kinda like how the drama of dirty campaign managing is masked by the frontdrop posters, platforms, and politics.

War Horse (John Williams):

A sweeping, old school Williams score with melodious themes and robust arrangements. It basically comes down to whether or not you like old school Williams scores, and I do. I really do.

Just missed:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

My Awards nominations: Ensemble

The best Acting Ensembles of the year are:

50/50:

Each member of Adam's social circle responds to his illness in a different way. This kind of character-driven film requires the very best from its ensemble, and all players nail their respective roles with naturalistic ease.

The Help:

The sincerity of the acting sells the sentimentality. Each performance is sharply realized by a splendid cast. All actors bring something different to the table, resulting in a rich blend of diverse characters.

The Ides of March:

Perhaps the greatest compliment that can be said of the supporting players is that no one of them stands out. They're all doing precise and distinct character work that always hits the target without screaming for attention.

A Separation:

There's not a mediocre performance to be found in this movie. Every character is superbly played with authentic dimensionality, both through solo scenes and when interacting with each other. A perfect, organic ensemble performance.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy:

Oldman and his tightly knit supporting cast (which includes the likes of Colin Firth, John Hurt, and Tom Hardy) give a collective performance that is quietly controlled, so as to keep the focus on the complex screenplay.

Just missed: Beginners, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris

My Awards nominations: Adapted Screenplay

Strong crop this year. Here's what I deem the best Adapted Screenplays of the year:

Drive (Hossein Amini):
The irrepressibility of one's true nature is a theme that's startlingly made in Drive. Amini minimizes dialogue and focuses more on implied backstory to illustrate the driver's character.

The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon):
Clooney et. al. realize that making the actual politics the meat of this story would either alienate or bore their audience, so they wisely keep it on the side, keeping the screenplay lean, polished, and efficient.

Moneyball (Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin):
While not one that always pops, the script does brim with ideas. The dialogue willfully revels in awkward beats that force unspoken characterization. Anyone who can make baseball stats interesting has to be a good writer!

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan):
This is a thoughtful and attentive screenplay that intentionally moves a bit slowly, but at least it allows its audience time to process all the little narrative cogs that compose the complex plot.

We Need to Talk About Kevin (Lynne Ramsay, Rory Kinnear):
The book's more objective narration is translated into a brilliant first-person character study that comes tinted with its character's guilt and confusion. Cleverly structured as a pseudo mystery.

Just missed: The Help, Project Nim, Tintin

PGA nominees

All seven of my predicted Best Picture nominees showed up on the PGA's longlist, so that doesn't give us much to chew on. The three remaining PGA nominees are somewhat surprising. I'd have thought the populist nominee would be either Potter or Apes, but they opted for Bridesmaids instead. I'm tickled pink to see that The Ides of March got some love. Maybe its Oscar chances aren't dead in the water after all? As for Dragon Tattoo, it obviously survived its late opening, but I still doubt the Academy will go for it.

Best Picture
THE ARTIST, Producer: Thomas Langmann
BRIDESMAIDS, Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend
THE DESCENDANTS, Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin
THE HELP, Producers: Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green
HUGO, Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese
THE IDES OF MARCH, Producers: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
MONEYBALL, Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
WAR HORSE, Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

In animation, they opted for five instead of the expected three. I say Tintin is in the most vulnerable position, if only because its mo-cap format might sour traditional animators.

Best Animated Feature
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, Producers: Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg
CARS 2, Producer: Denise Ream
KUNG FU PANDA 2, Producer: Melissa Cobb
PUSS IN BOOTS, Producers: Joe M. Aguilar, Latifa Ouaou
RANGO, Producers: John B. Carls, Gore Verbinski

Golden Globe nominees

It's hardly a surprise to see the Hollywood Foreign Press Agency tow the party line by honouring The Artist with a field-leading six nominations. It'll probably tap dance its way to an easy Best Picture win in the Musical/Comedy category. What interests (and pleases) me more is their wave of support for George Clooney's terrific The Ides of March, which has thus far been rudely ignored by the precursor circuit. Even if its four nominations have more to do with Clooney's star power than the merits of the film, I won't object. Here's hoping the Academy will stick up for it somewhere.

Best Picture, Drama
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn

Review - The Ides of March

One only need know the title of George Clooney's The Ides of March – aptly named for the day of a fateful backstabbing – to suspect that this political drama is less to do with public policy and more to do with the cutthroat chess match that plays itself out on the other side of the curtain. As designed by Clooney and his co-writers Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon (the latter of whom penned the original play), the actual issues are peripheral as seen from the vacuum in which jaded campaign strategists ply their splenetic trade; people are played against each other, secrets divulged, secrets kept, trust severed, but all with a purpose. All for the cause of The Campaign.

One Category at a Time: Best Actor

Johnny Depp, one of America's most elite actors (though it may be easy to forget, given his resume of late), stars in an adaptation of Hunter S. Thompson's The Rum Diary, written and directed by Barry Robison. I'm sure everyone is eager to see Depp take on a role that doesn't involve Jack Sparrow or Tim Burton. I know I am.

Ryan Gosling probably missed a nomination this past year by the skin of teeth, having given one of 2010's best performances in Blue Valentine. If the Academy wants to make it up to him (not saying they necessarily do), they may pay closer attention to his work in George Clooney's The Ides of March, in which he plays a disillusioned political staffer.

As for George Clooney himself, after laying low in 2010, he's on course to have a big year starring in Alexander Payne's The Descendants and his own directorial project The Ides of March. He faces internal competition from the latter's Ryan Gosling, but he is the main attraction in the former, which will allow him to tap into that well of understated emotion that he does so well.

David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method has two prime contenders in Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender, playing Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung respectively. Will vote splitting ruin both their chances? Will one be pushed to Supporting? Can they both sneak in? These questions depend on a number of factor's, including how well the film is received, but for the time being, it's safe to assume that biographical roles are in for their fair share of awards attention.

And finally, is Hollywood ready to forgive Mel Gibson? He's got a plum role in Jodie Foster's The Beaver, as an unbalanced man who can only communicate with others through a hand puppet. Oscar loves a good comeback, although it may still be too soon after Gisbon's tabloid antics for them to welcome him back to the flock with a nomination. We shall see.

Predicted five:
George Clooney in The Descendants or The Ides of March
Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary
Mel Gibson in The Beaver
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method

Also consider: Antonio Banderas The Skin That I Inhabit, Damien Bichir A Better Life, Matt Damon We Bought a Zoo, Michael Fassbender A Dangerous Method, Ralph Fiennes Coriolanus, James McAvoy The Conspirator, Brad Pitt Moneyball, Michael Shannon Take Shelter.

One Category at a Time: Best Adapted Screenplay

There look to be a lot of previous Oscar nominees (and winners) for screenwriting back in play this year for high profile adaptations. Certainly more than in the original field, but that doesn't make it that much easier to predict from a year out.

Alexander Payne won this category for his last feature film Sideways with his writing partner Jim Taylor. He's got two new collaborators in Nat Faxon and Jim Rash with whom he's adapted the Kaui Hart Hemmings novel The Descendants, which fits with Payne's style of balancing smart humour and real emotion. I'm looking forward to it.

Another past Oscar winner in this category is Christopher Hampton, who received his Oscar back in 1989 for Dangerous Liaisons which was based on his own play. For this year he's adapted another one of his own plays with the word ''dangerous'' in the title; A Dangerous Method, which explores the work of and relationship between Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud.

And yet another pair of previous Adapted Screenplay winners with a project in the race this year are Steve Zaillian (Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network), who have teamed up to adapt Moneyball, Michael Lewis' nonfiction account of Billy Beane's computerized drafting system of MLB prospects, for the screen. I'll be interested to see where they can go with it.

George Clooney and Grant Heslov were nominated five years ago for writing Good Night and Good Luck, and are collaborating again to bring us their adaptation of Beau Willimon's play The Ides of March. Political dramas are never an unwise bet, and this one has enough star power to make it a big awards magnet for Clooney and Heslov.

Back in the realm of more traditional Oscar bait is Steven Spielberg's War Horse, based on Michael Morpurgo's novel which is also coming out as a Broadway play this year. Richard Curtis and Lee Hall have written the screenplay, which is sure to catch many an Academy member's fancy with its sentimental story and hefty WWI setting.




Predicted five:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, A Better Life, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady, The Help, The Skin That I Inhabit, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin.

One Category at a Time: Best Director

I think it's safe to say that the days of the lone Best Director nod are over. With ten nominees for Best Picture, your Directing nominees are going to be five of those ten. From my ten predicted Best Picture nominees, the five I'm guessing to land a Director nod are the ones who have been nominated there before.

The first, and most famous of whom, is Steven Spieberg. who was last nominated in 2006 for Munich. He looks to have a high-profile year with The Adventures of Tintin likely to make a big box-office impact and War Horse to tantalize awards-voting bodies at year's end. Spielberg has been one America's most important filmmakers since the 1970s, and assuming that he'll earn the Academy's attention is seldom far-fetched.

Also nominated in 2006 (for Capote) was Bennett Miller, directing this year's baseball-centred drama Moneyball. Some are quick to chalk his Capote nomination up as bit of a fluke in a weak year, but he's a sensible director who works well with actors. With Oscar-winning screenwriters Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian handling the script and an impressive cast signed up, Miller has a good opportunity to make something really good out of this.

And would you look at this, another person who was last nominated in 2006 (for Goodnight and Good Luck), the multitalented George Clooney. His political drama The Ides of March, which he also wrote and produced with collaborator Grant Heslov, lands this year and is poised to be a force to be reckoned with on the circuit. Clooney has a terrific cast with lots of awards potential. Multiple acting nods is often good news for the director's chances.

Last nominated in 2005 for Sideways, Alexander Payne has not made a feature film since. Everyone's very excited to see him return this year with his take on the acclaimed novel The Descendants. Payne is adept at tackling drama and humour in balanced measure, and the story of a soon-to-be single father trying to reconcile with his two daughters may benefit from his sense of poignancy and levity.

Terrence Malick has only ever made one film the Academy really responded to (The Thin Red line for which he was nominated in 1999), but he's only ever made a handful of films anyway. His filmography is so small and spread out that fans of his are always hungering for his next feature, often forced to wait several years. It feels like we've been waiting for The Tree of Life forever, but now that it has a release planned this spring, we can finally see if it was worth the wait.

Predicted five:
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Also consider: J.J. Abrams Super 8, David Cronenberg A Dangerous Method, Cameron Crowe We Bought a Zoo, Drake Doremus Like Crazy, David Fincher The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jodie Foster The Beaver, Phyllida Lloyd The Iron Lady, Jason Reitman Young Adult, Tate Taylor The Help.

One Category at a Time: Best Supporting Actor

As it was with Supporting Actress, I managed to guess three of this past year's nominees from a year out. I was relatively confident about some of those early picks too, but I can't say the same thing about any of today's advanced predictions.

It's odd to think that Paul Giamatti only has one nomination to his name (and for Cinderella Man of all things), but the Academy will have a chance to remedy that if he delivers in George Clooney's A-lister-filled drama The Ides of March. But will internal competition keep him from attracting enough attention? There are lots of possible Supporting Actor candidates in the film.

This category is often kind to respected veterans whose best work is behind them, but whose longevity and versatility allows them to continue working. After garnering his first career nomination last year, Christopher Plummer could return for another shot with Mike Mills' Beginners.

Meryl Streep has the tendency to steal her costars' spotlight, but recall Stanley Tucci's warm turn as her supportive turn in Julie & Julia probably helped him earn his nomination last year (although for a different movie). Maybe Jim Broadbent can win some awards love by playing her supportive husband in The Iron Lady?

For a few years Philip Seymour Hoffman was ubiquitous, first winning his Oscars for Capote and then following it up with two consecutive Supporting Actor nods. He's been absent a couple of years now, but Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian have probably written him a plum role in Moneyball. The film is being made by Bennett Miller who directed Hoffman to that Capote Oscar.

And for a really off the wall prediction, how about Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn? I always forget that he has four nominations (in four different categories!), although the last one was in 1996 for adapting Hamlet. Perhaps there's a chance he can nab a nod for playing Laurence Olivier.

Predicted five:
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Paul Giamatti in The Ides of March
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball or The Ides of March
Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn

Also consider: Vincent Cassal in A Dangerous Method, Daniel Craig in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Thomas Hayden Church in We Bought a Zoo, Hal Holbrook in Water for Elephants, Sean Penn in The Tree of Life, Brad Pitt in The Tree of Life, John C. Reilly in We Need to Talk About Kevin, Christoph Waltz in Water for Elephants

One Category at a Time: Best Supporting Actress

I'll admit to feeling kinda proud (and/or lucky) of nailing three of last year's five Best Supporting Actress nominees from a year out, especially going out on a limb for a young actress no one had ever heard of before named Hailee Steinfeld. Let's see if I can repeat the feat.

One contender who's already had her name bandied about as a nominee at next year's Oscars is the legendary Vanessa Redgrave for her turn as Volumnia in Ralph Feinnes modern-day adaptation of Shakespeare's little-seen Coriolanus. Redgrave has six career nominations going all the way back to 1967 and one win for Julia in 1977, but has not been nominated since Howards End (1992). As a respected veteran and master of her craft, a juicy supporting role might be just what she needs to reenter Oscar's graces.

George Clooney's political drama The Ides of March features a stacked ensemble with potential for multiple acting nominations. The most notable female presence is Marisa Tomei, who, after receiving years of flack following her surprise Oscar win for My Cousin Vinny, has done a great job of keeping her career fresh and interesting by taking on challenging and varied roles that have subsequently earned her another two nominations. Might she stand out in a strongly male-dominated cast?

How about representation from a strongly female-dominated cast? The Help features an eclectic and promising one, not to mention potential as lite Best Picture appeal. I'm taking my chances on Viola Davis, who broke out onto the big screen with a nomination two years ago for Doubt. She plays a black servant in 1960s Mississippi who makes an unlikely friendship with young white college grad.

An ingenue who you might argue is due for a nomination is Scarlet Johansson. She costars alongside Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo, Cameron Crowe's first narrative feature in six years, as the wife of a man who uproots his family so that they can revive an old zoo. Crowe has always written good supporting parts for actresses, so here's hoping Johansson will do well by him.

One actress who's poised to explode in a big way this year is Jessica Chastain, starring in no less than six films, including the aforementioned Coriolanus and The Help. But the one most people are excited about is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life. Will she be nominated for this, or for something else? Maybe for Take Shelter or The Fields? Or maybe not at all? Her name should be pretty ubiquitous this year, and that's always an advantage to staying in the awards discussion.

Predicted five:
Viola Davis, The Help
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus or The Whistleblower
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life or Take Shelter or The Help
Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March
Scarlet Johansson, We Bought a Zoo

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 1)

Now that the 2010/11 Oscar season is a comfortably distant memory, I suppose I'd better toss up some early guesses as to who the nominees will be for next year's awards. I must confess that I'm struggling to fill my ten Best Picture predictions somewhat. There only appears to be a handful of awards-bait projects lined up for a 2011 release, and I somehow doubt that we'll see an animated feature or summer blockbuster up for the big prize this year. I gladly invite tiny independent films to surprise me, because for the moment, I can't pretend I'm that excited about many titles this year.

But on to the predictions. The biopic has always been a decent threat for Oscar's crown, and one with potential is David Croneneberg's A Dangerous Method, starring Michael Fassbender and Viggo Mortensen as pioneering psychiatrists Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud. The screenplay was adapted by Christopher Hampton from his own play, an approach which netted him an Oscar over 20 years ago for Dangerous Liaisons. It's period setting and focus on historical figures makes this project prime bait, but... with David Cronenberg at the helm? I'm actually a bit intrigued.

Alexander Payne hasn't made a feature film since winning his Oscar six years ago for Sideways. His long-awaited followup, The Descendants, headlines George Clooney as a powerful landowner in Hawaii who tries to bond with his two wild daughters in the wake of a tragic accident involving his wife. Sounds like a downer, right? Wrong. The novel on which the film is based has been praised by critics for its balance of audacious comedy with emotional heft, a style for which Payne has a proven talent.

Getting back to more traditional Oscar bait, it's hard to argue that Dreamworks' upcoming take on the popular novel The Help seems to fit the bill. Set in a 1960s Mississippi, it tells of an aspiring writer (Easy A's Emma Stone) who shocks her tightly-knit Southern community by interviewing African Americans who have spent their lives in servitude of the wealthy white. Gently rocking the boat on racism as appeased Oscar before (even as recently as 2009 with The Blind Side), and the film's formidable female ensemble sure looks enticing to me.

Besides The Descendants, George Clooney is involved in another potential awards pony this year called The Ides of March, in which he stars and directs. He also co-wrote and co-produced it with Grant Heslov, the man alongside whom he was nominated for Good Night, and Good Luck (2005). The film is a political drama also starring Ryan Gosling, Paul Giamatti, Marissa Tomei, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Evan Rachel Wood, and Max Minghella. Can you say, "SAG Ensemble award"?

Will Meryl Streep finally get that third Oscar this year? It's certainly a possibility given that she'll be staring as Margaret Thatcher, Britain's first – and heretofore, only – female Prime Minister, in The Iron Lady. Having the air of "Importance" is always helpful when courting Oscar, and this subject offers a plethora of such "Important" issues to touch on. Combine that with what many are anticipating will be yet another charismatic performance from Streep, and I'd say there's potential.

Five more Best Picture predictions coming Monday.