One Category at a Time: Best Makeup

It's hard to tell what direction this branch will go on a yearly basis. They really do nominate what they feel constitutes the best work, and pay little attention to critical reception or Best Picture buzz. And to be honest, that's the way it aught to be. So who stands a chance of getting in this year?

Given their openness to nominating films that the critics really don't give a damn about, I haven't got a problem in predicting a film like Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - one which I doubt will fare too well with cinephiles - to earn a nod. Two of the previous three Pirates films made it in here, and with past winners Joel Harlow and Peter King on board, I imagine the makeup work will be great.

A call I'm less confident in but still willing to make is A Dangerous Method, David Cronenberg's look at the lives and work of Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. The film's makeup and hair designer Stephan Dupuis already has an Oscar to his name, albeit for his more grotesque transformative magic on Cronenberg's The Fly. Can he follow up his sole nomination from 25 years ago with another one for what we can only assume will be more subtle work?

And what about all those comic-book-character-based blockbusters coming out this summer? Surely they can't all be passed over by the Academy. Captain America's WWII setting may allow Lisa Westcott and David White to cook up some realistic war-related makeup to compliment what will probably be their more memorable creation; Hugo Weaving's transformation into Red Skull.

Predicted three:
Captain America: The First Avenger
A Dangerous Method
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Also consider: Cowboys and Aliens, The Green Lantern, Harry Potter 7, The Iron Lady, Thor, War Horse.

One Category at a Time: Best Actor

Johnny Depp, one of America's most elite actors (though it may be easy to forget, given his resume of late), stars in an adaptation of Hunter S. Thompson's The Rum Diary, written and directed by Barry Robison. I'm sure everyone is eager to see Depp take on a role that doesn't involve Jack Sparrow or Tim Burton. I know I am.

Ryan Gosling probably missed a nomination this past year by the skin of teeth, having given one of 2010's best performances in Blue Valentine. If the Academy wants to make it up to him (not saying they necessarily do), they may pay closer attention to his work in George Clooney's The Ides of March, in which he plays a disillusioned political staffer.

As for George Clooney himself, after laying low in 2010, he's on course to have a big year starring in Alexander Payne's The Descendants and his own directorial project The Ides of March. He faces internal competition from the latter's Ryan Gosling, but he is the main attraction in the former, which will allow him to tap into that well of understated emotion that he does so well.

David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method has two prime contenders in Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender, playing Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung respectively. Will vote splitting ruin both their chances? Will one be pushed to Supporting? Can they both sneak in? These questions depend on a number of factor's, including how well the film is received, but for the time being, it's safe to assume that biographical roles are in for their fair share of awards attention.

And finally, is Hollywood ready to forgive Mel Gibson? He's got a plum role in Jodie Foster's The Beaver, as an unbalanced man who can only communicate with others through a hand puppet. Oscar loves a good comeback, although it may still be too soon after Gisbon's tabloid antics for them to welcome him back to the flock with a nomination. We shall see.

Predicted five:
George Clooney in The Descendants or The Ides of March
Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary
Mel Gibson in The Beaver
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method

Also consider: Antonio Banderas The Skin That I Inhabit, Damien Bichir A Better Life, Matt Damon We Bought a Zoo, Michael Fassbender A Dangerous Method, Ralph Fiennes Coriolanus, James McAvoy The Conspirator, Brad Pitt Moneyball, Michael Shannon Take Shelter.

One Category at a Time: Best Adapted Screenplay

There look to be a lot of previous Oscar nominees (and winners) for screenwriting back in play this year for high profile adaptations. Certainly more than in the original field, but that doesn't make it that much easier to predict from a year out.

Alexander Payne won this category for his last feature film Sideways with his writing partner Jim Taylor. He's got two new collaborators in Nat Faxon and Jim Rash with whom he's adapted the Kaui Hart Hemmings novel The Descendants, which fits with Payne's style of balancing smart humour and real emotion. I'm looking forward to it.

Another past Oscar winner in this category is Christopher Hampton, who received his Oscar back in 1989 for Dangerous Liaisons which was based on his own play. For this year he's adapted another one of his own plays with the word ''dangerous'' in the title; A Dangerous Method, which explores the work of and relationship between Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud.

And yet another pair of previous Adapted Screenplay winners with a project in the race this year are Steve Zaillian (Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network), who have teamed up to adapt Moneyball, Michael Lewis' nonfiction account of Billy Beane's computerized drafting system of MLB prospects, for the screen. I'll be interested to see where they can go with it.

George Clooney and Grant Heslov were nominated five years ago for writing Good Night and Good Luck, and are collaborating again to bring us their adaptation of Beau Willimon's play The Ides of March. Political dramas are never an unwise bet, and this one has enough star power to make it a big awards magnet for Clooney and Heslov.

Back in the realm of more traditional Oscar bait is Steven Spielberg's War Horse, based on Michael Morpurgo's novel which is also coming out as a Broadway play this year. Richard Curtis and Lee Hall have written the screenplay, which is sure to catch many an Academy member's fancy with its sentimental story and hefty WWI setting.




Predicted five:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, A Better Life, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady, The Help, The Skin That I Inhabit, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin.

One Category at a Time: Best Costume Design

This is always a depressing category for me. Five years running the winner here has been a terrible movie. That may not bother me so much if I ever thought the costumes were deserving, but the Academy's "more is more" philosophy often clashes violently with my own tastes. But I remain hopeful we might see a film of quality (or at least quality costumes) reclaim the throne this year.

Sandy Powell will be looking for her tenth career nomination via Martin Scorsese's Hugo Cabret, set in lavish 1930s Paris. Powell is a versatile designer who excels no matter the film's period or genre, and she is certainly respected by the costume branch.

Michael O'Connor won this category a couple of year's ago for The Duchess, and could be back for another British corset-fest in the form of Jane Eyre. But has it been released too early? It may well be forgotten by year's end, but you can always count on the costume branch to throw a bone to forgotten movies (I Am Love for instance).

Jacqueline West, last nominated a couple of years ago for Benjamin Button, has two solid opportunities this year in The Tree of Life and Water for Elephants. In spite of its spring release, I'm guessing she stands a better shot with the latter, which allows her to combine the sparkly glitz of the circus with the dusty drabness of Depression era America.

David Cronenberg's sister, Denise, has been designing the costumes for all his movies since The Fly in 1986. She has her most awards-friendly project to date with A Dangerous Method, Cronenberg's period piece about Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. If the film catches on with the Academy, I wouldn't be surprised to see its design elements earn some love.

Sharen Davis is no stranger to styles of the 1960s, having earned Oscar nominations for Ray and Dreamgirls. She'll be outfitting the many women of The Help, set in 1960s Mississippi, with period-appropriate and class-defining threads. Again, if the movie tickles the Academy's fancy, I'd say she has a decent shot at nomination number three.

Predicted five:
A Dangerous Method
The Help
Hugo Cabret
Jane Eyre
Water for Elephants

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, The Conspirator, My Week with Marilyn, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Tree of Life, Wuthering Heights.

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 1)

Now that the 2010/11 Oscar season is a comfortably distant memory, I suppose I'd better toss up some early guesses as to who the nominees will be for next year's awards. I must confess that I'm struggling to fill my ten Best Picture predictions somewhat. There only appears to be a handful of awards-bait projects lined up for a 2011 release, and I somehow doubt that we'll see an animated feature or summer blockbuster up for the big prize this year. I gladly invite tiny independent films to surprise me, because for the moment, I can't pretend I'm that excited about many titles this year.

But on to the predictions. The biopic has always been a decent threat for Oscar's crown, and one with potential is David Croneneberg's A Dangerous Method, starring Michael Fassbender and Viggo Mortensen as pioneering psychiatrists Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud. The screenplay was adapted by Christopher Hampton from his own play, an approach which netted him an Oscar over 20 years ago for Dangerous Liaisons. It's period setting and focus on historical figures makes this project prime bait, but... with David Cronenberg at the helm? I'm actually a bit intrigued.

Alexander Payne hasn't made a feature film since winning his Oscar six years ago for Sideways. His long-awaited followup, The Descendants, headlines George Clooney as a powerful landowner in Hawaii who tries to bond with his two wild daughters in the wake of a tragic accident involving his wife. Sounds like a downer, right? Wrong. The novel on which the film is based has been praised by critics for its balance of audacious comedy with emotional heft, a style for which Payne has a proven talent.

Getting back to more traditional Oscar bait, it's hard to argue that Dreamworks' upcoming take on the popular novel The Help seems to fit the bill. Set in a 1960s Mississippi, it tells of an aspiring writer (Easy A's Emma Stone) who shocks her tightly-knit Southern community by interviewing African Americans who have spent their lives in servitude of the wealthy white. Gently rocking the boat on racism as appeased Oscar before (even as recently as 2009 with The Blind Side), and the film's formidable female ensemble sure looks enticing to me.

Besides The Descendants, George Clooney is involved in another potential awards pony this year called The Ides of March, in which he stars and directs. He also co-wrote and co-produced it with Grant Heslov, the man alongside whom he was nominated for Good Night, and Good Luck (2005). The film is a political drama also starring Ryan Gosling, Paul Giamatti, Marissa Tomei, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Evan Rachel Wood, and Max Minghella. Can you say, "SAG Ensemble award"?

Will Meryl Streep finally get that third Oscar this year? It's certainly a possibility given that she'll be staring as Margaret Thatcher, Britain's first – and heretofore, only – female Prime Minister, in The Iron Lady. Having the air of "Importance" is always helpful when courting Oscar, and this subject offers a plethora of such "Important" issues to touch on. Combine that with what many are anticipating will be yet another charismatic performance from Streep, and I'd say there's potential.

Five more Best Picture predictions coming Monday.