One Category at a Time: Best Actress

Another year, another super competitive crunch for Best Actress nominations. Things were so tight this year it prompted Viola Davis to jump ship to the Supporting race, saw Amy Adams miss for a complex Best-Picture-headlining turn and Annette Bening get passed over for some of the best work of her career. And yet as tough as it's been to crack the Best Actress lineup these last few years, eventual winners have been easy to call.

My Award Nominations: Leading Actress

Yesterday I bit the bullet and committed to five nominees for Best Supporting Actress. Trying to do the same for the leading ladies was even more brutal. Forget five to ten Best Picture nominees... Let's apply that rule to Best Actress instead!

SAG Winners

The SAG Awards added their say to the season last night, as I'm sure you saw.
I didn't so much watch the show as listen to it from the discomfort of my bathroom, while an underdone chicken & rice dish from Korean Grill House pulled a U-turn in my digestive tract.

Most of the guild's decisions require little commentary, more or less confirming front-runner status for Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis and Emma Stone.

It wasn't until the final two film categories of the night we got some fat to chew. While I wouldn't have called the wins for Denzel Washington and the cast of Hidden Figures full shockers, they do add enough of a wrinkle to keep things interesting, or at least raise some questions:

SAG Nominees

The Screen Actors Guild is the first industry group out of the gate. As usual, their lists are heavy on Oscar favourites, but the nominating committee is small and random enough to throw in a surprise or two (Welcome to the Oscar race, Emily Blunt and Captain Fantastic?).

Conspicuously missing from their coveted Best Ensemble category is presumed Best Picture frontrunner La La Land. No film has won the Academy's top honour without a SAG Ensemble nod since Braveheart in the SAG Awards' inaugural year. Worth keeping an eye on.

Anyway, here are the nominees their six movie categories:

BEST ENSEMBLE
Captain Fantastic
Fences
Hidden Figures
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Captain Fantastic's inclusion hearkens back to the days when we would regularly get left field inclusions (like Bobby and The Station Agent) with no chance at Best Picture recognition. Now the real question: Does this actually sink La La Land's Best Picture aspirations, or it simply seen as a duet as opposed to an ensemble achievement?

One Category at a Time: Actress

For those of us who absorb movies and writing thereof on a year-round basis, one of the defining stories of 2015 has to be how many of the year's best pictures were female-centric stories. It's fitting then, that in a (sadly) uncharacteristic role reversal, the category of Best Actress is far more competitive than that of Best Actor, which is comparatively lackluster. But even with a wealth of quality (which mirrors my own personal ballot quite closely), there's one name that has emerged as the bona fide frontrunner.

My Award Nominations: Actress

No dearth of quality options to choose from, as the women's category was way more competitive than the men's for a change of pace. So competitive, in fact, that a couple of legit contenders saw their campaigns sneakily shuffled to the supporting category for lack of room in this one. You'll see no such fraudulence from me, but it forced me to make some heartbreaking omissions. My Best Actress selections are:

SAG nominations scattered amongst the pretenders

The first big guild announcement of the season dropped this morning, but when all is said and done, it may not have been such an impactful announcement.

SAG's attention was splintered all over the place, and seems especially out of sync with pundit logic this season. Aggressively campaigned films like Trumbo and The Big Short performed well, but could both conceivably be shut out the Oscars. Some categories could even have as little as an 0/5 overlap with the eventual Oscar slate (especially that Supporting Actor category). For the time being, it keeps any frontrunners a happy mystery. Check out the nominees and my brief knee-jerks after the jump.

Is nomination leader Trumbo really an Oscar threat? Perhaps for Crantson...

Early Oscar Predictions: The Actresses

The annual complaint about Best Actress being a less competitive field than that of their male counterparts is perhaps more believable at this early predictive stage when scoping out potential contenders – It's no less false, it's just that the great, underrated female performances of the year haven't even been seen yet. Still, you don't have to look far to find a whole bunch of leading ladies that show a lot of promise for their upcoming films.

Top Five Highlights of 2014-15 Oscar Season

Yesterday I unloaded most irksome bugaboos of the 2014-15 awards season in a flurry of list-ified rage. Venting is healthy, right? But if there's one thing healthier, it's accentuating the positive. So as my final word (I swear!) on the Oscar derby that ended almost a week ago, here are my five favourite treasures of the season:

My Award Nominations: Best Actress

People are always moaning about this being a weak category. Every year it seems. I don't know about you, but I had a hard time deciding who to leave off this ballot. There are just as many worthy contenders missing the cut here as there are in the Best Actor race.

I'd love to shine my light on more of the under-recognized actresses of 2014, but these five (a handful of them already Oscar-nominated) were tops for me. Herewith, my Best Actress nominees:

One Category at a Time: Actress

Can we call a moratorium on Best Actress always being called a "weak" category? More often than not this kind of talk stems from people who are too lazy to search for talented leading ladies flying well below the mainstream radar, and who balk at the notion of an awards-caliber performance coming from a less-than-awards-caliber film.

Yet nearly every year the Academy comes up with five terrific nominees, and if it seems like the pre-nomination field is thinner than that of the leading men on the other side of the gender divide, it certainly speaks more to the systemic male dominance of the film industry than to the quality of the lesser seen -- though not necessarily fewer -- Oscar-worthy female performances.

In fact, having a category in which the multi-nominated Oscar heavyweights don't figure in as prominently as they would in, say, Best Actor, can be a blessing, as it forces audiences and Academy members alike to seek out titles that could use the exposure. If this crop of nominees can encourage a few more people to go see Wild or Two Days, One Night, then it aught to be celebrated rather than dismissed as "weak".

SAG Awards bolster 'Birdman' for Best Picture, but not Best Actor...

Well, if you don't count Best Stunt Ensemble (which went to the solid work in Unbroken where I had guessed The Hobbit), I aced my SAG predictions...

... and I'm not entirely happy about that.

First of all, let's not dwell on the supporting races or on Best Actress. Those categories are all but sealed up with Patricia Arquette, J.K. Simmons, and Julianne Moore all coming out on top in their respective categories.

Let's also not dwell on Birdman's well deserved victory in Best Ensemble. It may not have been my absolute first choice but its cast was excellent and makes a fine winner. If you want to theorize about how "easy" it is for a movie about ACTING to win with the Screen Actors Guild, go ahead, but this is a merited honour for an outstanding collective performance.

What I think we do need to talk about is Best Actor. I had an unsettling feeling that tonight would be the night when frontrunner Michael Keaton would finally be unseated by Eddie Redmayne for his much more awards-typical performance as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. I don't want to give the impression that I begrudge Redmayne any accolades he receives for his impressive physical transformation, but this is not the outcome I wanted to see.

Only a handful of surprises in SAG nominations

The SAG awards always present something of an enigma to awards watchers. Their nominating committee is significantly smaller than the full membership who votes on the winners, which often results in one or two out-of-left-field contenders. They also decide their nominees so early, that a few late-breaking juggernauts always miss the cut.

Evidence of both these intriguing qualities were present in this morning's nomination announcement, which otherwise stuck to the script most prognosticators imagine will be unfolding this season.

The biggest surprises came from the ladies' acting categories, which saw Jennifer Aniston break into the Best Actress race for her acclaimed work in the micro-indie Cake. Screeners for that one obviously landed in the right hands at the right time. An even more curious nomination is the one Naomi Watts garnered for St. Vincent, which played well at TIFF (on the inaugural 'Bill Murray Day') but has since been all but forgotten.

"The world is round, people!"

On this International Women's Day, it feels like the most appropriate time to tip my cap to the best part of Cate Blanchett's Best Actress acceptance speech:

"...and perhaps those of us in the industry who are still foolishly clinging to the idea that female films with women at the center are 'niche' experiences; They are not. Audiences want to see them, and in fact, they earn money. The world is round, people!"

You tell 'em, Cate!

My seasonal coverage concludes tomorrow with my top ten highlights and pet peeves.

One Category at a Time: Actress

All of the acting categories seem more or less set in stone at this point in the season, but none more so than Best Actress, which features a career-best performance from a previous Oscar winner who is all but assured of winning her second. It's somewhat a shame that this race is such a done deal, considering how exciting it could have been. Think about it: Four previous Oscar winners and a beloved five-time nominee hungry for her first win, among whom three Best Picture nominees are represented... sounds on paper like it should be a nail-biter, but instead it's one of the biggest locks in the top categories. But we can really bellyache so much when the winning performance is this good? I don't think so.

My Award nominations: Actress

Let's hear it for the ladies! This year boasted a wealth of outstanding performances, and even though the race for the Oscar is foregone, in any other year we could have had a real tight race due to the glut of quality acting. Behold the five Actresses I feel are the best of the best this year:

SAG winners

So the Screen Actors Guild has had their say, and for the most part, they were in lock step with the beat the season has set so far.

All the expected actors followed up on their BFCA wins two days ago, with the only category of some dispute being supporting actress. Lupita Nyongo's win tonight over chief competition Jennifer Lawrence (who won just last year) seems to have effectively settled that question though.

SAG, PGA Preview

The first of the industry's top guilds to announce their winners for 2013 will be the Screen Actors Guild (broadcast live tonight) and the Producers Guild of America (tomorrow).

All eyes are on American Hustle to snatch SAG's coveted Best Ensemble award, but nothing's ever set in stone. Remember just last year that another starry David O. Russell ensemble piece, Silver Linings Playbook, was also pegged to take this category, only to be trumped by eventual Best Picture juggernaut Argo, despite it not winning any individual acting honours. So it is possible that 12 Years a Slave could still pull the same trick it did at the Globes and the Critics Choice; keeping a lower profile all night before popping up in the final envelope.

SAG nominations

The Screen Actors Guild is the first major trade group out of the gate this year, and even though their nominees are always somewhat predictable, there's always a surprise or two to stir the pot.

Nominees and individual commentaries on the film categories after the jump.

Early Oscar predictions - Part 1

Spring is in the air. As the warmer weather thaws me out of post-Oscar hibernation, it's time to start looking ahead to next winter in search of potential awards projects that just might tickle the Academy's fancy. I was going to hold of on this ludicrous practice until after the Cannes Film Festival wrapped up, but it's not like that would make my crystal ball any less foggy, so may as well get it over with.

Last year's early predictions turned out to be a typically imprecise 44/96, but believe it or not, that's actually the best I've ever done! Can I improve?

This is the first of five early predictions pieces I'll be posting this month. I'm starting out this week with Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Next Monday I'll finish off the major categories.