One Category at a Time: Picture

Last year, I continued my practice of narrowing down the Best Picture field by simple analysis of which films possessed the necessary three nominations (Editing, Directing, Writing) to win Best Picture. Only three films met all the requirements, and those films went on to win a combined nine Oscars, including seven of the eight major categories. So let's do more of the same:

The Artist: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
The Descendants: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
The Help: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)
Hugo: Editing (Y), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (Y)
Moneyball: Editing (Y), Directing (N), Writing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Editing (N), Directing (Y), Writing (N)
War Horse: Editing (N), Directing (N), Writing (N)

So, the only three that can win (by this logic, that is) are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

For ten consecutive years, the winner of the ACE Eddie has gone on to win the Academy Award for Film Editing, proving a reliable barometer for pundits. It's usually the ACE winner for Drama that shoulders the most Oscar clout, but this is a rare year in which the ACE winner for Comedy is an equally (or even more) viable contender on account of being the Best Picture frontrunner.

Descendants rounds out good weekend with WGA win

It was a good couple of days for The Descendants, which took home an unexpected editing prize from the ACE and a less surprising USC Scripter award last night, and just this evening nabbed the Writers Guild of America's honour for Best Adapted Screenplay. It is likely on its way to the Oscar as well, and it bugs me to no end. Not to be too harsh, but lazy voice-over narration and tonal inconsistency aren't exactly qualities of a brilliant adaption. I had held out hope that the guild might opt for the dense thematic fibers of Moneyball, thus boosting its Oscar hopes, but no dice.

Meanwhile, Woody Allen collected another Original Screenplay award for Midnight in Paris to go along with his Critics Choice and Golden Globes awards. This comes to precisely nobody's surprise, especially with its chief competition for the Oscar, The Artist, out of the running on one of the guild's maddening technicalities. Here's hoping the momentum will carry over with the Academy.

As has become a trend this year, the guild's documentary category gives us absolutely no help for predicting the Oscar, as the Documentary Screenplay category went to the un-nominated Better This World. This is the first year I can remember when none of the Best Documentary nominees had a single guild win.

ACE, CAS, WGA, MPSE preview

It's a busy weekend for guild awards looking to have their say before Oscar polls close on Tuesday.

The American Cinema Editors would be a more important announcement if it weren't for their separation of the nominees into Drama and Comedy categories. The Artist is obviously going to win in the Comedy category, while Drama is probably going the way of Hugo (although I could see it going to Dragon Tattoo as well). As for the Oscar, it'll be down to The Artist and whatever film does win for Drama, as the Oscar winner for Editing has won the ACE Eddie for the last ten years in a row.

The Cinema Audio Society only nominated two films that went on to receive Sound Mixing nods from the Academy; Hugo and Moneyball. I'm anticipating Hugo will take it from the Society, but am still sticking with War Horse to impress the Academy.

The Writers Guild of America is probably going to award Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay and Moneyball for Adapted, a pair of winners I wouldn't be surprised to see repeat at the Oscars, though I am expecting The Descendants to come out on top with the Academy.

Finally, the Motion Picture Sound Editors have a few categories in which to acknowledge the year's best sound editing. The important category in terms of Oscar is Best Sound Effects and Foley, where I'm guessing it'll be War Horse. Interesting to note: for four of the last five years, the winner of that category with the MPSE as gone on to win the Oscar for Sound Editing, and since the two Sound categories so often go to the same film, this guild is possibly a more accurate bellwether of Best Sound Mixing than the CAS.

One Category at a Time: Actor

There will be plenty of suspense leading up to the opening of this envelope on Oscar night. The writing seemed to be on the wall early in the season, but a turning point at the SAG Awards had signaled a tight two-horse race (one made a little less tight by the BAFTAs this past Sunday). The other three nominees will have to sit back and enjoy the show. At least a couple of them can can count themselves lucky that they managed to squeak into the slate when high profile hopefuls Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Fassbender were somewhat surprisingly shut out along with the films they represented.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

As it is with Best Original Screenplay, the crop of Adapted Screenplay nominees this year includes the two legitimately best adapted screenplays of the year, but also a couple I could have done without. It's still a good lineup on the whole, and the race between the two frontrunners is just close enough for me to have an active rooting interest in this category.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor is often a refuge for overdue veterans reminding the industry that they're still alive (unless they're in a film that's just too cool for the Academy - coughAlbertBrookscough!), and with the exception of one conspicuously youthful contender, that's exactly what the category represents this year. I think it's safe to assume that someone is finally getting his due this year, but while the precursors have made it convincingly clear which senior it'll be, I have some uneasy reservations.

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

After an off year which only saw two nominees score duel Sound nominations, it was back to business as usual this year with four overlapping between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. They obviously don't call it Best Sound Mixing for mixing it up. It may seem a tad redundant after yesterday's rundown of similar Sound Editing nominees, but let's have a look at the playing field anyway.

Reactions to 84th Oscar nominations

It all went down this morning more or less as expected. Hugo and The Artist unsurprisingly led the field of 2011/12 nominees with 11 and 10 Oscar nominations respectively. The next closest were Moneyball and War Horse with six apiece, followed closely by The Descendants and Dragon Tattoo with five (although the latter was squeezed out of the Best Picture lineup).

The most notable of the few inconsequential surprises was the breadth of the Best Picture slate, which ended accommodating nine nominees. Apparently Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close wasn't dead in the water after all; it was just extremely quiet and incredibly close to a Best Picture nomination. I thought I had dodged a bullet in not having to watch this critically derided film, but now I'll have to check it out. With only one other nomination under its belt (for sentimental favourite Max von Sydow, who could stealthily usurp Plummer's long overdue Oscar), one can't help but feel that this particular Best Picture nominee is out of place. This year's Blind Side? I'll hold off on a true opinion until I see it.

CAS nominees

The Cinema Audio Society nominees for 2011 are:

Hanna (Roland Winke, Christopher Scarabosio, Craig Berkey, Andrew Dudman)
Hugo (John Midgley, Tom Fleischman, Simon Rhodes)
Moneyball (Ed Novick, Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Brad Haenel)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Lee Orloff, Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes, Alan Meyerson)
Super 8 (Mark Ulano, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Dan Wallin)

We can usually count on the CAS to throw a curveball into the Best Sound Mixing race. Last year, they nominated Shutter Island when no one was looking, correlative to this year's surprise nominations for Moneyball and Joe Wright's Hanna.

Transformers shafted by CAS. Bumblebee doesn't like the sound of that.

But the surprise inclusions aren't nearly as informative as the surprise snubs. Transformers' unjustifiable omission is a discouraging sign. Last year, the guild prompted minor outrage by ignoring TRON Legacy's sensational mix, a film which then proceeded to be blanked by the Academy (although it did pop up in Sound Editing).
It may be that Transformers is on the bubble here more than I would have imagined.

Instead, the critically trashed blockbuster they decided to go with was the fourth Pirates installment, which gives me an uneasy vibe. Something's been tickling my mind these last couple of weeks that Pirates might end up with an unexpectedly strong showing in the Sound/Sound/Effects categories. It already feels like a threat to swipe a vfx nomination, and this mention for its sound only scaffolds its hopes. The Motion Picture Sound Editors announce their nominees tomorrow, perhaps lending some clarity to this murky situation.

My Awards nominations: Actor

Some tough calls for me to make in this category. I wish I could include more that these five Leading Actor nominees:

MICHAEL FASSBENDER in Shame:

A perturbed, methodical portrait of addiction and sexual dependency that commands our attention even when we would rather not look. Fassbender's work keeps us gripped to a film that, frankly, isn't as interesting as his character is. Even during long, uneventful takes, we are fascinated.

JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT in 50/50:

A superb, controlled performance that maintains the character's typically mellow demeanor but subtly infers the anxiety simmering within. He often has to play the comedic straight man to multiple characters, which he handles perfectly without ever losing sight of his character's emotional journey.

WOODY HARRELSON in Rampart:

A painfully real depiction of an angry, foolish, tormented man in denial about himself and the world he lives in. Harrelson's performance is immersive and lived-in, implying a masterful application of method and a reliance on character-specific instincts.

BRAD PITT in Moneyball:

Some people quibble that there's too much Brad Pitt in his portrayal of Billy Beane. I argue that there's just the right amount of Brad Pitt, whose movie star charisma does indeed gleam through, but never at the expense of his internalization of a man questioning his own worth.

ANDY SEKIS in Rise of the Planet of the Apes:

Serkis, naturally, brings is A-game. His Caesar is one worth hailing; a sensitive, confused, angry soul condemned to the body of a beast. It's his performance that moves and inspires the audience far more than his human costars. Once again, he is deserving of an Oscar nomination he won't receive.

Just missed:
George Clooney in The Descendants, Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Jean Dujardin in The Artist, Ryan Gosling in Drive, Matthias Schoenaerts in Bullhead

ACE Eddie nominees

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):
The Descendants, Kevin Tent, A.C.E.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.
Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.
Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.
War Horse, Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

War Horse very much needed this to keep its Best Picture hopes alive. Nice to see Tellefsen nominated for his precise work on Moneyball. He'd make a handsome winner, but alas, I fear this is headed the way of Dragon Tattoo.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical):
The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids, William Kerr & Michael L. Sale
Midnight in Paris, Alisa Lepselter
My Week with Marilyn, Adam Recht
Young Adult, Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.

What!? No Beginners!? And in lieu of that they nominate My (Excruciatingly Long and Clumsily Paced) Week with Marilyn!? Oh, A.C.E. Bow your heads in shame. I'd say The Artist has this sewn up.

Best Edited Animated Feature Film:
The Adventures of Tintin, Michael Kahn, A.C.E.
Puss in Boots, Eric Dapkewicz
Rango, Craig Wood, A.C.E

Michael Kahn is easily the most deserving of this lot if you ask me, but that doesn't necessarily mean the animators branch will nominate the film. Puss in Boots might be emerging as Dreamworks' better bet over Kung Fu Panda 2.

Best Edited Documentary:
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
, Joe Bini & Maya Hawke
Freedom Riders, Lewis Erskine & Aljernon Tunsil
George Harrison: Living in the Material World, David Tedeschi

None of these are on Oscar's shortlist so it's a moot point. But I must inquire as to where Senna is? I didn't think highly of the film itself but there's no denying it's an editors' piece if there ever was one.

My Awards nomination: Film Editing

I rather the liked the variety and quality of Film Editing I saw on screen this year, but if I had to settle on five (which I did) they would be:

Beginners (Olivier Bugge Coutte):

Perfect handling of minimalist comic beats and soft-spoken drama, seamless back-and-forth between past and present.

Drive (Matthew Newman):

More varied and interesting than you'd expect of a crime thriller, making excellent use of dissolves and cross-fading, plus slow motion for suspense.

Moneyball (Christopher Tellefesen):

Finds interesting rhythms in scenes that might otherwise come across as mundane.

Warrior
(Sean Albertson, Matt Chesse, John Gilroy, Aaron Marshall):

Evenhanded presentation of multiple story arcs in the first half. The fight sequences owe their stirring effect to the dizzying shot selections.

We Need to Talk About Kevin (Joe Bini):

The evocation of Eva's frazzled recollections is a stellar editing showcase, excellent transitions between her present and her memories.

Just missed:
The Artist, Moneyball, Senna, Super 8, Tintin, The Tree of Life

My Awards nominations: Adapted Screenplay

Strong crop this year. Here's what I deem the best Adapted Screenplays of the year:

Drive (Hossein Amini):
The irrepressibility of one's true nature is a theme that's startlingly made in Drive. Amini minimizes dialogue and focuses more on implied backstory to illustrate the driver's character.

The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon):
Clooney et. al. realize that making the actual politics the meat of this story would either alienate or bore their audience, so they wisely keep it on the side, keeping the screenplay lean, polished, and efficient.

Moneyball (Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin):
While not one that always pops, the script does brim with ideas. The dialogue willfully revels in awkward beats that force unspoken characterization. Anyone who can make baseball stats interesting has to be a good writer!

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan):
This is a thoughtful and attentive screenplay that intentionally moves a bit slowly, but at least it allows its audience time to process all the little narrative cogs that compose the complex plot.

We Need to Talk About Kevin (Lynne Ramsay, Rory Kinnear):
The book's more objective narration is translated into a brilliant first-person character study that comes tinted with its character's guilt and confusion. Cleverly structured as a pseudo mystery.

Just missed: The Help, Project Nim, Tintin

Review - Moneyball

Like the game of baseball itself, Bennett Miller's Moneyball is mostly a slow-moving affair that picks up here and there, but carries a payoff that's well worth it for those who stuck the whole thing out.

Brad Pitt stars as Billy Beane, player-turned-scout-turned-GM whose promising MLB career fell through and left him embittered towards the whole system. He despairs that the league is governed by a financial hierarchy that sees the rich teams get richer and the poor teams (specifically his own Oakland As) get poorer, and he's equally cynical about the archaic scouting philosophy faithfully practiced by his older staff. Naturally, he's intrigued by the number-crunching sabermetrics of recent Yale graduate Pete Brand (Jonah Hill), a system that emphasizes statistical player projections for runs and wins while minimizing cost. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom about drafting superstar players, but Beane, unsatisfied with what he considers an unaccomplished life, is willing and eager to rock the boat.

One Category at a Time: Best Adapted Screenplay

There look to be a lot of previous Oscar nominees (and winners) for screenwriting back in play this year for high profile adaptations. Certainly more than in the original field, but that doesn't make it that much easier to predict from a year out.

Alexander Payne won this category for his last feature film Sideways with his writing partner Jim Taylor. He's got two new collaborators in Nat Faxon and Jim Rash with whom he's adapted the Kaui Hart Hemmings novel The Descendants, which fits with Payne's style of balancing smart humour and real emotion. I'm looking forward to it.

Another past Oscar winner in this category is Christopher Hampton, who received his Oscar back in 1989 for Dangerous Liaisons which was based on his own play. For this year he's adapted another one of his own plays with the word ''dangerous'' in the title; A Dangerous Method, which explores the work of and relationship between Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud.

And yet another pair of previous Adapted Screenplay winners with a project in the race this year are Steve Zaillian (Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network), who have teamed up to adapt Moneyball, Michael Lewis' nonfiction account of Billy Beane's computerized drafting system of MLB prospects, for the screen. I'll be interested to see where they can go with it.

George Clooney and Grant Heslov were nominated five years ago for writing Good Night and Good Luck, and are collaborating again to bring us their adaptation of Beau Willimon's play The Ides of March. Political dramas are never an unwise bet, and this one has enough star power to make it a big awards magnet for Clooney and Heslov.

Back in the realm of more traditional Oscar bait is Steven Spielberg's War Horse, based on Michael Morpurgo's novel which is also coming out as a Broadway play this year. Richard Curtis and Lee Hall have written the screenplay, which is sure to catch many an Academy member's fancy with its sentimental story and hefty WWI setting.




Predicted five:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, A Better Life, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady, The Help, The Skin That I Inhabit, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin.

One Category at a Time: Best Film Editing

As with Best Director, it's hard to imagine that this field will ever include a non-Best-Picture nominee so long as there are ten. It's hard to get a read on what kind of editing a film will have this early in the year, so maybe just choosing a bunch of Best Picture frontrunners is the best way to go about guessing.

One contender I don't feel too uncomfortable predicting is Steven Spielberg's editor of choice, three-time Oscar winner Michael Kahn, a true giant in his field with three high-profile titles being released this year, two of them helmed by Spielberg. The one people will be watching the closest for awards buzz is War Horse, which should stand a decent chance on account of being a war film.

Kevin Tent has been nominated by the American Cinema Editors three times for his collaborations with director Alexander Payne, but has never copped an Oscar nomination. With Payne's The Descendants, maybe he'll finally break through. There's no denying he's due, but will the editor's branch be impressed enough with his typically un-showy work?

It's usually the case that the respected action blockbuster of the year will earn a nomination here, especially if it ends up a Best Picture nominee as well. That may bode well for Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey (who should have been nominated last year for Star Trek) if J.J. Abrams Super 8 delivers with critics and audiences. Of course, that trend catastrophically failed for Inception this past year, so who knows?

Christopher Tellefsen is teaming up again with Bennett Miller (his director on Capote) for the upcoming Moneyball. Nothing about the film really screams "Best Film Editing!!!" aside from its Best Picture potential, but with zesty screenwriters Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian on script duties, Tellefsen will have his hands full just trying to edit around their typically whip-smart dialogue.

Finally, Terrence Malick's long-awaited The Tree of Life has had to employ a whole five-man squad of editors, including Oscar nominees Daniel Rezende (City of God) and Billy Weber (Malick's The Thin Red Line). Again, the possibility of being a hot Best Picture contender is the film's biggest selling point.

Predicted five:
The Descendents
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Tintin, A Dangerous Method, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, The Ides of March, Hugo Cabret, The Whistleblower, Young Adult.

One Category at a Time: Best Director

I think it's safe to say that the days of the lone Best Director nod are over. With ten nominees for Best Picture, your Directing nominees are going to be five of those ten. From my ten predicted Best Picture nominees, the five I'm guessing to land a Director nod are the ones who have been nominated there before.

The first, and most famous of whom, is Steven Spieberg. who was last nominated in 2006 for Munich. He looks to have a high-profile year with The Adventures of Tintin likely to make a big box-office impact and War Horse to tantalize awards-voting bodies at year's end. Spielberg has been one America's most important filmmakers since the 1970s, and assuming that he'll earn the Academy's attention is seldom far-fetched.

Also nominated in 2006 (for Capote) was Bennett Miller, directing this year's baseball-centred drama Moneyball. Some are quick to chalk his Capote nomination up as bit of a fluke in a weak year, but he's a sensible director who works well with actors. With Oscar-winning screenwriters Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian handling the script and an impressive cast signed up, Miller has a good opportunity to make something really good out of this.

And would you look at this, another person who was last nominated in 2006 (for Goodnight and Good Luck), the multitalented George Clooney. His political drama The Ides of March, which he also wrote and produced with collaborator Grant Heslov, lands this year and is poised to be a force to be reckoned with on the circuit. Clooney has a terrific cast with lots of awards potential. Multiple acting nods is often good news for the director's chances.

Last nominated in 2005 for Sideways, Alexander Payne has not made a feature film since. Everyone's very excited to see him return this year with his take on the acclaimed novel The Descendants. Payne is adept at tackling drama and humour in balanced measure, and the story of a soon-to-be single father trying to reconcile with his two daughters may benefit from his sense of poignancy and levity.

Terrence Malick has only ever made one film the Academy really responded to (The Thin Red line for which he was nominated in 1999), but he's only ever made a handful of films anyway. His filmography is so small and spread out that fans of his are always hungering for his next feature, often forced to wait several years. It feels like we've been waiting for The Tree of Life forever, but now that it has a release planned this spring, we can finally see if it was worth the wait.

Predicted five:
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Also consider: J.J. Abrams Super 8, David Cronenberg A Dangerous Method, Cameron Crowe We Bought a Zoo, Drake Doremus Like Crazy, David Fincher The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jodie Foster The Beaver, Phyllida Lloyd The Iron Lady, Jason Reitman Young Adult, Tate Taylor The Help.

One Category at a Time: Best Supporting Actor

As it was with Supporting Actress, I managed to guess three of this past year's nominees from a year out. I was relatively confident about some of those early picks too, but I can't say the same thing about any of today's advanced predictions.

It's odd to think that Paul Giamatti only has one nomination to his name (and for Cinderella Man of all things), but the Academy will have a chance to remedy that if he delivers in George Clooney's A-lister-filled drama The Ides of March. But will internal competition keep him from attracting enough attention? There are lots of possible Supporting Actor candidates in the film.

This category is often kind to respected veterans whose best work is behind them, but whose longevity and versatility allows them to continue working. After garnering his first career nomination last year, Christopher Plummer could return for another shot with Mike Mills' Beginners.

Meryl Streep has the tendency to steal her costars' spotlight, but recall Stanley Tucci's warm turn as her supportive turn in Julie & Julia probably helped him earn his nomination last year (although for a different movie). Maybe Jim Broadbent can win some awards love by playing her supportive husband in The Iron Lady?

For a few years Philip Seymour Hoffman was ubiquitous, first winning his Oscars for Capote and then following it up with two consecutive Supporting Actor nods. He's been absent a couple of years now, but Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian have probably written him a plum role in Moneyball. The film is being made by Bennett Miller who directed Hoffman to that Capote Oscar.

And for a really off the wall prediction, how about Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn? I always forget that he has four nominations (in four different categories!), although the last one was in 1996 for adapting Hamlet. Perhaps there's a chance he can nab a nod for playing Laurence Olivier.

Predicted five:
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Paul Giamatti in The Ides of March
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball or The Ides of March
Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn

Also consider: Vincent Cassal in A Dangerous Method, Daniel Craig in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Thomas Hayden Church in We Bought a Zoo, Hal Holbrook in Water for Elephants, Sean Penn in The Tree of Life, Brad Pitt in The Tree of Life, John C. Reilly in We Need to Talk About Kevin, Christoph Waltz in Water for Elephants

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 2)

As attested by those who attended it this past February, the Sundance Film Festival apparently did not offer up much in the way of Oscar fodder this year. But one that did turn some heads, especially for its breakout star Felicity Jones, is Like Crazy, a romantic drama about a British woman separated from her American lover upon expiration of her student visa. You may as well consider this prediction a placeholder for whatever small independent film happens to win the Academy's favour this year. There's always at least one (probably two, with ten slots open).

This past year's Oscar winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, Aaron Sorkin, may be back in the race sooner than we'd expect for Moneyball. He and Steve Zaillian, another past winner of Adapted Screenplay, have fashioned a script from the non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about how Oakland Athletic's general manager Billy Beane assembled a competitive team on a shoestring budget by employing analytical statistic methods. I'll admit it doesn't exactly sound rivetting, but neither did the origin story of Facebook, and we all saw how well Sorkin's take on that turned out. The film will be directed by Bennett Miller (nominated five years ago for Capote) and star Brad Pitt.

Let's not forget the reason the Best Picture field was expanded to ten nominees in the first place; to make room for critically-respected blockbusters. That said, it's quite conceivable there might not be any films that fit the bill this year, given how many sequels and superhero movies there are, but one original premise that already has the Internet abuzz with a titillating trailer is Super 8, from J.J. Abrams, whose Star Trek only just missed out on a Best Picture nomination last year. I'm not at all confident in this prediction. It'll need positive reviews to even stand a chance.

I've been predicting Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life for three consecutive years now, only for it to continue to linger in distribution limbo. Finally, this Spring, at long last, it will see the light of day, and I must say I'm excited. But will expectations be too high? Cinephiles have been waiting a long time to see this film. Can it survive after literally years of extended hype? And even so, is it the Academy's type of movie? I'm hoping for the best.

Steven Spielberg hasn't been a Best Picture nominee since Letter from Iwo Jima, but he could be back next year with another Academy friendly movie called War Horse, which tells the story of a young man who follows his beloved horse into World War I after it is sold to the cavalry. Nearly all the same department heads from Saving Private Ryan have joined up with Spielberg on this one, giving it massive across-the-board potential, and that sentimental storyline can only help matters.

Take these ten predictions lightly. It's just a shot in the dark. If even four of these make it into the Big Ten, I'll consider myself successful.

Predicted ten:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
The Iron Lady
Like Crazy
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, The Beaver, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jane Eyre, One Day, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Whistleblower, Winnie, Wuthering Heights, Young Adult.