One Category at a Time: Best Supporting Actress

With all the major precursors and most regional critics groups lining up behind a single performance, this year's Best Supporting Actress Oscar seems to be pretty open-and-shut. But up to a point this season, that wasn't the case.

One Category at a Time: Actress

Before the SAG Awards dropped I was pretty conflicted in this category. Based on the distribution of precursor attention, it seemed that we had a tight three woman race for the Oscar, but now that the Actors have had their say, it looks like the frontrunner has a more comfortable margin. The Oscar lineup is mostly the same as SAG’s, except that Rooney Mara (one of the best performances of the year) slid in over Tilda Swinton (THE best performance of the year!). Oy vey. She really is the anti-Meryl Streep; consistently brilliant performances every year but rarely an Oscar nod to show for it. I suppose we should be thankful on her behalf that she has one for Michael Clayton, because she honestly doesn’t care about awards. Right on, Tilda.

Anyway, the nominees – all five of whom I predicted for nominations back in April!:

One Category at a Time: Best Actress

Even from this early vantage point, it's clear that 2011 is not at a lack for juicy leading female roles with big awards potential.

One of the most obvious contenders on everyone's radar is perennial favourite Meryl Streep in the role of former British PM Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Biopic roles are always held in Oscar's favour, even when the movie itself is not. Given Streep's incredible later-career popularity and the nature of the part, I'd say she's a very strong bet.

But perhaps she'll have some stiff competition from five-time nominee Glenn Close, a bonafide member of the "overdue club". She plays a woman who poses as a butler in 19th C Ireland in Albert Nobbs, which she also co-wrote. Sounds interesting enough to me, but will Oscar bite?

As counter point to those two established actresses, there's a chance newcomer Felicity Jones (who received strong reviews out of Sundance for her performance in Like Crazy) could be the ingenue of the year. But it's a small film, and whether or not it gains Jones any traction may come down how much critical favour it can curry.

A role which could garner some attention is recent nominee Michelle Williams as the singular Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marylin. Hollywood enjoys seeing Hollywood take on old-Hollywood, and playing that era's iconic sex symbol gives Williams a great opportunity to impress. But is she a lead or a co-lead? Vote-splitting could hurt.

Finally, I'm taking a bit of long shot on Rooney Mara (who I loved, if ever so briefly, in The Social Network), who will be tackling the role of Lisbeth Salander in David Fincher's remake of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The same role earned Swedish actress Noomi Rapace some awards consideration just this past year. Can the American version improve?

Predicted five:
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Felicity Jones in Like Crazy
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn or Take This Waltz
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Also consider: Anne Hathaway One Day, Jennifer Hudson Winnie, Keira Knightly A Dangerous Method, Robin Wright Penn The Conspirator, Emma Stone The Help, Tilda Swinton We Need to Talk About Kevin, Charlize Theron Young Adult, Rachel Weisz The Whistleblower

One Category at a Time: Actress

There have been whisperings that Annette Bening is lurking as a serious spoiler threat in this category, pushing the publicity wagon hard as she can in the final weeks before ballots are due. And there's certainly a valid case you can make for her upsetting the frontrunner: she's a beloved actress who's put in years of hard work to create a diverse and respected filmography, she's due for a win, and her performance in The Kids Are All Right is a sincere one. However, if she was going to turn the corner, it had to be at this past Sunday's BAFTAs, and of course that didn't go her way.

So, having nailed down the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, it would still be foolish to predict anyone but Natalie Portman taking the Oscar. You'll be hearing no complaints from me. It's a helluva performance that showcases such a wide range from the actress, and she still manages to keep it under control, which is remarkable given how out of control her character is. Even though Black Swan isn't really the Academy's cuppa tea, they surely won't mind awarding it this one prize. After last year's mini-travesty, looks like this category is gonna be right back on track with a quality winner.

But of course, that would still be the case even if Portman somehow loses, because every nominee is all aces. It's simply impossible for them to pick a bad winner from this bunch. Jennifer Lawrence owned Winter's Bone from start to finish with her no-bullshit stoicism, Michelle Williams spun a heartbreaking tandem with Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, and Nicole Kidman's brilliant turn in Rabbit Hole is one of the most emotionally flavourful she's ever given.

I know how corny this sounds, but seriously, they're all winners.

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Runner-up: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank

My Award nominations: Actress

What an outstanding year it's been for Best Actress. It killed me to leave some of the contenders off. Here's who made it:

KATIE JARVIS in Fish Tank:
Jarvis gives a searing portrayal of youthful anger, repression, longing, disillusionment, and self-liberation with furiously commanding yet completely authentic flare. She perfectly embodies what it means to feel trapped inside one's own life, and the pain that's involved in mustering up the willpower to simply leave it all in your rear view.

NICOLE KIDMAN in Rabbit Hole:
Kidman gives one of her finest performances to date as a grieving mother struggling to cope healthily with the death of her son. Her caustic wit serves as a defense mechanism from comforters, but we can see how desperately she needs comfort as her maternal urges begin to override her stubborn sensibilities.

CAREY MULLIGAN in Never Let Me Go:
Mulligan's performance is a devastating blend of unrequited love and graceful maturity. She is a moving centre for a film that is unfortunately not all that moving. She aptly communicates a girlish fear and shyness that evolves into gracious but heartbreaking resignation, all of it underlined with a quiet but immeasurably deep compassion.

NATALIE PORTMAN in Black Swan:
Portman's transformation from 'sweet girl' Nina Sayers into the confident but vicious Black Swan is one of the best descents into madness put on film. Another impressive feat is her dancing; That she is able to exude character and arc on the stage while maintaining complete discipline of technique is astonishing.

MICHELLE WILLIAMS in Blue Valentine:
Every bit as raw and unfiltered as her costar Ryan Gosling, Williams finds genuine pain, joy, love, and heartbreak somewhere inside of her and brings it out onto the screen. Not unlike her outstanding work in Wendy and Lucy (2007), the performance feels lived-in and uninhibited.


Just missed: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Emma Stone in Easy A.

SAG nominees!

And they are:

Best Ensemble
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Stunt Ensemble
Green Zone
Inception
Robin Hood


Some observations:

-This week's critics awards have shown a lot of love for John Hawkes and Jennifer Lawrence, both of whom give great performances in Winter's Bone. They both earn noms with SAG as well. I'm thinking the Best Picture nomination about which I've long been skeptical could be in the cards after all.

-There's clearly a lot of support for Black Swan. It scooped a nod for Best Ensemble from The Town, and Mila Kunis completes the hat-trick of nominations from the BFCA, HFPA, and SAG. I think Best Picture is probable for this film as well.

-The shutouts of Blue Valentine and Another Year is a bitter pill to swallow for Oscar hopefuls Michelle Williams, Ryan Gosling, and especially Lesley Manville, who could be falling victim to category confusion.

-Hilary Swank but not Sam Rockwell? Did not see that coming.