The first nominee (and possibly a stealthy threat for the win, I suspect) is The Artist's Berenice Bejo. Riding the coattails of the film's irresistible charm, her capable imitation of a doe-eyed silent movie starlette hit the Academy's heart in all the right spots. A vote split between The Help's duo of nominated players can only help her cause, but seeings how the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG have lined up behind only one of those two nominees, I'm betting Bejo will come up just short.
She's still in better standing than Jessica Chastain, whose plethora of diverse performances this year were more than enough to yield a hard-earned nomination (for The Help), but not enough to upstage the sassier performance of costar Octavia Spencer. I for one think Chastain's messy blend of bubbly eccentricity and confused grief is more impressive, but she may not even have been nominated were it not for her conspicuously extensive body of work in 2011, so I'm just happy to see her at the party.
Among the less likely possibilities are a pair of Mc's; Melissa McCarthy's pudgy butch bridesmaid in Bridesmaids, and Janet McTeer's self-assured Irish cross-dresser in Albert Nobbs. McCarthy materialized as a possibility after a handful of unexpected critics citations culminated in Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA nods. Colour me a bit perplexed, but I don't quite see what makes her performance a standout from the rest of the ensemble. Maybe it's just easier to recall the bridesmaid who crapped in the sink. McTeer, on the other hand, always felt like an outside dark horse, but as her SAG nomination should have tipped me off, she actually had an edge over presumed nominee Shailene Woodley the whole time. Her performance is the quietest of the five; even more than Berenice Bejo's literally silent one! The performances of these two Mc's are polar opposites, but one thing they have in common is that neither is in a Best Picture nominee, and neither will win.
Our winner instead will come from The Help's stellar ensemble, Octavia Spencer. Her deft comedic instincts are well counterbalanced by her light dramatic touch. The sass-mouthin' is feisty but palatable, and I imagine it would be hard for voters not to like her character (always a plus). Having capitalized on her Critics Choice, Globe, and SAG wins with slightly intimidated but still affectionate acceptance speeches, it looks like the Oscar is hers to lose. Still, watch out for the "silent" lurker in the wings to capitalize on a potential Chastain/Spencer division between The Help's fanbase.
Will win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Runner-up: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Should win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Should've been nominated: Carey Mulligan, Shame
