One Category at a Time: Actress

For those of us who absorb movies and writing thereof on a year-round basis, one of the defining stories of 2015 has to be how many of the year's best pictures were female-centric stories. It's fitting then, that in a (sadly) uncharacteristic role reversal, the category of Best Actress is far more competitive than that of Best Actor, which is comparatively lackluster. But even with a wealth of quality (which mirrors my own personal ballot quite closely), there's one name that has emerged as the bona fide frontrunner.

Early Oscar Predictions: The Actresses

The annual complaint about Best Actress being a less competitive field than that of their male counterparts is perhaps more believable at this early predictive stage when scoping out potential contenders – It's no less false, it's just that the great, underrated female performances of the year haven't even been seen yet. Still, you don't have to look far to find a whole bunch of leading ladies that show a lot of promise for their upcoming films.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

Of the four acting categories, this is definitely the one that feels like it's in the most flux. The four televised precursor awards having been split between two actresses; one who has made a fresh splash on the scene with a staggering dramatic performance accompanied by charming speeches on the red carpet and at the award podium, and another coming off a recent Oscar win and reveling in a flashy comedic turn. Let's take a look at them (oh, and the other three) after the cut.

BAFTA winners do little to clarify Oscar race

With the Winter Olympics pushing the Oscar voting window back a couple of weeks, all eyes this were on the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs) to indicate any late-breaking momentum for this contender or that during this crucial final phase of the season. However, it seems that the Brits are about as indecisive as American awards groups have been this year, as they too ended up splitting their decision between the leading runners in the race.

In eerily similar fashion to the way the Golden Globes went down, Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave managed to claim the Best Film prize at the BAFTAs, but only after it had been nearly shut out all night long. Losing categories in which it is believed to be the Oscar favourite (Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay) must have been cause for excruciating nervousness, but then it reared its head at the last minute with a victory for lead actor Chiwetel Ejiofor (in the absence of Oscar frontrunner Matthew McConaughey) and ultimately Best Picture.

But Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity led the total trophy haul with six, including Best British Film. Ironically, many would argue that the actual Best Film winner 12 Years a Slave is more British than the Mexican director's U.S.-financed space adventure. Keeping its own Oscar fires stoked with three wins was David O. Russell's American Hustle.

Check out the winners below for more commentary on individual categories, and how the winners here might affect the Oscar outcome.

SAG, PGA Preview

The first of the industry's top guilds to announce their winners for 2013 will be the Screen Actors Guild (broadcast live tonight) and the Producers Guild of America (tomorrow).

All eyes are on American Hustle to snatch SAG's coveted Best Ensemble award, but nothing's ever set in stone. Remember just last year that another starry David O. Russell ensemble piece, Silver Linings Playbook, was also pegged to take this category, only to be trumped by eventual Best Picture juggernaut Argo, despite it not winning any individual acting honours. So it is possible that 12 Years a Slave could still pull the same trick it did at the Globes and the Critics Choice; keeping a lower profile all night before popping up in the final envelope.

Review - American Hustle

American Hustle opens, as one might expect from a movie about scammers and con-artists, with a con job; But not a con job that has anything important to do with the plot. The con job in question is a man's toupée. Spending several meticulous minutes brushing on paste, applying the shabby tuft of a hairpiece, and then elaborately combing over his side hair so that every follicle is in precisely the right place, this man, Irving Rosenfeld (Christian Bale), is attempting to con the world at large into believing that he has no bald spot.

American Hustle, the latest from writer-director David O. Russell's career reinvention as a helmer of madcap character pieces, can itself be described like that toupée: A tangled, messy, unruly concealment of a script littered with bald spots, and yet we can't help but stare in enjoyment at the sight of it. That wig, however insubstantial, is a lot more fun to watch than a head of real hair.

Critics Choice Awards

So the critics choice awards have been announced, and as usual, they're up to their old anticipatory ways, opting for whichever titles (at this point in the race at least) appear to be the leading contenders in their respective categories. I was astonished at just how many winners I was guessing right mere seconds before they were called, but with a group this predictable that's hardly a significant feat.

One category I was happy to guess wrong was Supporting Actress. It did not go the way of Golden Globe victor Jennifer Lawrence, but instead went to the only contender in that field who I think should even be uttered in the same breath as the word "Oscar", the lovely Lupita Nyong'o. She gave a beautiful speech to boot. It may be down to the SAG Award to break the tie.

In addition to Nyong'o, the film picked up Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture, but Gravity ruled the trophy tally with seven wins, although two of them were for dubious genre categories Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie ("Sci-fi" my ass) and Best Actress in an Action-Movie (which Sandra delightfully poked holes in during her acceptance speech by thanking the likes of Jackie Chan and Sylvester Stallone for teaching her everything she knows -- heehee!).

One more random thought... I can totally see Dallas Buyers Club winning it's semi-surprising Best Makeup nomination. Besides my own bias in thinking that the work in the film is really quite good, it struck me that every time McConaughey and (especially) Leto take the stage this season -- and they may do so again at SAG -- viewers will get to see just how different they look in real life. Plus it's the lone Best Picture nominee in a category where its only competition are two critically dismissed movies that are really not in the Academy's wheelhouse. How many of them saw Bad Grandpa or The Lone Ranger?

Anyway, check out all the Critics Choice winners (and my rambling commentaries) after the cut.

Golden Globes live blog

The Golden Globes are starting in about 15 minutes, and I'll be updating with my commentary on developments as they happen.

7:50 Got my port poured and ready to go. Let's end these inane red carpet interviews and get the show rolling.

8:00 And we're off!

NY Critcs surprise with American Hustle

Even in a year as strong as this one, the New York Film Critics Circle managed to make a Best Picture selection that has many pundits baffled: David O. Russell's American Hustle, whose reviews from recent press screenings have been mixed. Obviously, we won't be in a position to assess the NYFCC's decision in until we get to see the film itself in a little less than a month, but it certainly wasn't what many people expected to see triumph here. It also won for Screenplay and Supporting Actress Jennifer Lawrence.

Picking up big acting wins were Robert Redford of All Is Lost (a movie that continues to piss me off in its coy reluctance to open wide), and Cate Blanchett of Blue Jasmine (this just might be the first of a long list of awards leading up to an eventual Oscar win). Dallas Buyers Club's Jared Leto nabbed Supporting Actor while Steve McQueen took Best Director for 12 Years a Slave.

One final note, I'm super thrilled to see Sarah Polley claim the prize for Best Non-Fiction Film for her brilliant Stories We Tell, and hope it translates into an Oscar nod.

Full list of winners below:

Oscar Postmortem Pt. 1: Overview

Well, the 85th Annual Academy Awards came and went, putting a cap on what has been one of the most unusual awards seasons in recent memory. To no one's surprise, Ben Affleck's Argo was crowned the Best Picture of 2012, also taking expected prizes for Chris Terrio's screenplay and William Goldenberg's editing.

One Category at a Time: Actress

After the SAG Awards, the Best Actress race appears to have a frontrunner, but there's more nuance to it than that. A couple of the nominees weren't even in competition for the SAG or the Golden Globes, and even though I find myself predicting the obvious choice, it's a category that feels ripe for an upset.

SAG solidifies Argo as Best Picture frontrunner

I was going to liveblog tonight's SAG awards, but the local TV station that was supposed to carry it checked out for the first 40 minutes. By the time they corrected their error, I was too embittered to bother blogging, forced to watch an hour of TV categories before getting back around to the movie ones.

Things shook down mostly according to plan. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence strengthened their holds on Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress respectively. Best Supporting Actor was predictably unpredictable, but it ended up going to Tommy Lee Jones, as likely an Oscar bet as any.

Golden Globes live blog

So yeah, like everyone else on the net, I'll be live-blogging the Golden Globes when they begin in about three and a half hours time. Check back for updates throughout the evening.

7:33 - Usual banter on the red carpet. The women look cold. Apparently it's chilly out on the West coast tonight.

7:53 - Got my laptop. Got my port. Let's get this party started.

7:55 - Shameless Quartet plug by Dustin Hoffman. Supose I shouldn't prejudge (but I heard it's awful).

8:04 - "When it comes to torture, I trust the women who spent three years married to James Cameron" ZING! Fey and Poeller were great. Laughed at almost every joke.

8:09 - Supporting Actor: Goes to... Christoph Waltz in  Django Unchained. Weinstein at work, as always.

Review - Silver Linings Playbook

Like the bipolar protagonist at its centre, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is prone to wild mood swings at the drop of a hat. Fluctuating between wry humour, dramatic pathos, and earnest romance, it may not bring you any closer to understanding mental illness, but it makes for a surprisingly fun and satisfying picture.

In fact, the film actually downplays the severity of mental illness insomuch as it suggests that everybody is, to an extent, “crazy”. Pat Solitano (Bradley Cooper) – an undiagnosed bipolar having just completed his stay at a psychiatric hospital following a particularly violent episode – may be the character whose mental issues are addressed most directly, but we come to see how he's less strange when surrounded by his unstable family and friends. Be it his OCD father (Robert De Niro) who superstitiously insists on very specific conditions in order to win money on NFL games, his marriage-smothered best friend (John Ortiz), his mental ward cohort (Chris Tucker), or even his well-meaning but stifling mother (Jackie Weaver), everyone in his life exhibits some degree of “crazy”.

NBR crowns Zero Dark Thirty

Mirroring the NYFCC's decision, the National Board of Review named Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty the best of the year, including honours for Bigelow herself and star Jessica Chastain. The film, which we mortals won't get to see almost until Oscar nominations are upon us, is shaping up to be the critics' favourite throughout the month of December, much to the chagrin of Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master I'm sure, which was perceived to have filled that slot up until just last week when Bigelow's film finally screened for press. Anderson's beguiling opus was shut out here as it was by the New York critics, failing to even make the top ten films list. It had better hope the L.A. critics stump for it in a big way, or it could vanish from the conversation entirely.

Another big winner is David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook, for which Russell won Best Adapted Screenplay and star Bradley Cooper won Best Actor against a wealth of Oscar-luring competition. This is a big boost for him. Costar Jennifer Lawrence is already a likely nominee for Best Actress, but Cooper is on the bubble in a crowded field. His win here is good springboard for his campaign.

One Category at a Time: Actress

There have been whisperings that Annette Bening is lurking as a serious spoiler threat in this category, pushing the publicity wagon hard as she can in the final weeks before ballots are due. And there's certainly a valid case you can make for her upsetting the frontrunner: she's a beloved actress who's put in years of hard work to create a diverse and respected filmography, she's due for a win, and her performance in The Kids Are All Right is a sincere one. However, if she was going to turn the corner, it had to be at this past Sunday's BAFTAs, and of course that didn't go her way.

So, having nailed down the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, it would still be foolish to predict anyone but Natalie Portman taking the Oscar. You'll be hearing no complaints from me. It's a helluva performance that showcases such a wide range from the actress, and she still manages to keep it under control, which is remarkable given how out of control her character is. Even though Black Swan isn't really the Academy's cuppa tea, they surely won't mind awarding it this one prize. After last year's mini-travesty, looks like this category is gonna be right back on track with a quality winner.

But of course, that would still be the case even if Portman somehow loses, because every nominee is all aces. It's simply impossible for them to pick a bad winner from this bunch. Jennifer Lawrence owned Winter's Bone from start to finish with her no-bullshit stoicism, Michelle Williams spun a heartbreaking tandem with Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, and Nicole Kidman's brilliant turn in Rabbit Hole is one of the most emotionally flavourful she's ever given.

I know how corny this sounds, but seriously, they're all winners.

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Runner-up: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank

SAG nominees!

And they are:

Best Ensemble
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Stunt Ensemble
Green Zone
Inception
Robin Hood


Some observations:

-This week's critics awards have shown a lot of love for John Hawkes and Jennifer Lawrence, both of whom give great performances in Winter's Bone. They both earn noms with SAG as well. I'm thinking the Best Picture nomination about which I've long been skeptical could be in the cards after all.

-There's clearly a lot of support for Black Swan. It scooped a nod for Best Ensemble from The Town, and Mila Kunis completes the hat-trick of nominations from the BFCA, HFPA, and SAG. I think Best Picture is probable for this film as well.

-The shutouts of Blue Valentine and Another Year is a bitter pill to swallow for Oscar hopefuls Michelle Williams, Ryan Gosling, and especially Lesley Manville, who could be falling victim to category confusion.

-Hilary Swank but not Sam Rockwell? Did not see that coming.