One Category at a Time: Picture

For this annual post I traditionally take a rigidly statistical approach to narrowing down the Best Picture nominees. I simply look for the contenders with the three key nominations of Director, Editing, and Screenplay, and consider them the only ones truly in the running. But in a year as off-kilter as this one, it has become apparent that my usual approach is not adequate.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

The contest for Best Film Editing is always closely associated with Best Picture. Since editors and directors work pretty much hand in hand, the editors branch of AMPAS tends to nominate based on quality of the films as much as quality of just the editing. On top of that, the film to win Best Film Editing is often well liked enough that it almost always wins multiple categories (last year's victory for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being among the rare exceptions). And since editing can be such an invisible art at times, the winning film is usually required to have the “most” editing, rather than the “best”, to earn the Academy's attention.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

The contest for Best Adapted Screenplay is stuffed with the four leading Best Picture contenders, which makes it rather tricky to anticipate this year. We have a difficult literary adaptation from a popular potential sweeper, a quirky screwball comedy that a lot of pundits seem to be underestimating, a verbose historical drama that glows with eloquent language, and a zingy crowd-pleaser that appears first in line to win Best Picture. Joining them is a scrappy indie whose best shot at winning anything may come in this category (not that it's a great shot).

One Category at a Time: Original Score

Best Original Score feels kinda wide open this year. Sure, you could essentially eliminate the two nominees that aren't also up for Best Picture, but of the other three, any of them could win.

One Category at a Time: Costume Design

As it is in Best Production Design, having the most noticeable design elements is an essential factor to winning Best Costume Design, which is why  suspect the likely winner of Best Production Design is also primed to win here too. These two categories do often go hand in hand. Splits between two films nominated in both categories (like the one we saw last year) don't happen as often as one film winning both.

One Category at a Time: Production Design

Production design is one of those fields in which the Academy almost always votes for “most” over “best”, even if it's at the expense of a film they clearly like more. The sets need to draw attention to themselves in order to take the gold here, and for my money, there's only one nominee in this group that looks like a winner, although it's far from a slam dunk:

One Category at a Time: Director

For an Oscar year as weird as this one to ultimately yield another no-brainer Best Picture winner (from where we stand, at least) is a bit disappointing. Thankfully, all the uncertainty and unpredictability that was once thought to cloud the Best Picture race has instead been concentrated into the competition for Best Director, which is up for grabs in Ben Affleck's conspicuous absence.

In recent years with a Best Picture/Best Director split, Best Director has often gone to the presumed runner-up for Best Picture as a sort of consolation prize. To cite the examples, it certainly seems like Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist, and Traffic all came about as close to winning Best Picture as you can get without actually winning. But it begs the question: Which movie is in the runner-up position? Will that even matter?

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

This might take the cake as the year's most unpredictable category. Composed entirely of past winners, there are no narratives of “overdue actor still waiting for first Oscar” to be had. And with a pair of co-lead performances masquerading as supporting amongst true supporting players in popular Best Picture nominees, it leaves the contest as wide open as we've seen in years.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

The Supporting Actress slate doesn't seem has chock full of legit contenders as it has in years past. Not that any of these five performances are undeserving of some Oscar love, but four of them really don't hold a candle to the fifth, making this one of the night's slam dunk categories.

Sunday Top Ten: Top Ten of 2012

Thanks to all who emailed or posted in the comments their top ten lists. I read them with great interest. What fine tastes we all have! [back pat, back pat]

I never got into the habit of publishing an official top ten list when I started this blog. After putting so much work into my own awards each year, an additional list reiterating what I thought were the best films of the year seemed redundant. But I guess it's never too late to start. So here's a ranked, illustrated writeup of my ten favourite movies of the 2012.

Before getting into that, I have to highlight some honourable mentions:

There were some great documentaries this year, at the fore of which are The Queen of Versailles -- which humanizes the obscenely rich while shrewdly dismantling the American Dream -- and 5 Broken Cameras -- which brings a refreshingly personal touch to a complex political issue. 2012 was also a triumphant year for blockbuster franchises. Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises gives his influential trilogy the stirring conclusion it deserves, while Sam Mendes' Skyfall respectfully reinvigorates old-hat material with a classy new treatment. Sundance indies refound their mojo after a bit of an off year in 2011. Ben Lewin's The Sessions reveals intimacy that extends beyond the physical with an endearing sense of playfulness and heart. And finally, even though it's not a feature, no article on the best filmmaking achievements of 2012 would be complete without a big sloppy kiss to John Kahrs' superb animated short Paperman. This is probably my biggest cinematic crush of the year. Its groundbreaking innovations in hybrid animation combined with its hopelessly romantic story took my breath away, leaving an impression equal to any feature I saw over the last 365 days.

It. Is. Perfect.

Money shot! This is my favourite image I saw on screen in 2012

And now, the top ten...

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

I feel like the sound categories are due for a split. For three years we've had double sound winners (a couple coming at the expense of superior work), adding evidence to the widely accepted notion that your average Academy member can't really tell the two disciplines of sound editing and sound mixing apart.

But every now and then Sound Mixing will go to something not nominated for Sound Editing, and this year is shaping up that way.

2012 My Award winners!

Click on to see who took my prestigious prizes. Things are fairly spread out this year, indicative of what a high-quality year it's been for film.

One Category at a Time: Actor

The Best Actor race this year was at its most interesting and competitive before the nominations. The big question was which of the six leading men in the hunt would be left off the Academy's ballot. It was never a question of who would end up winning the whole thing, as that has been obvious for a couple of months now.

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

With only 24 days until the Oscars, it's time to run down the categories and make some official predictions. I'll start off with some of the categories I consider fairly settled, and among them is Best Cinematography.

My Award nominees for 2012 year in film

Here they are for your perusal. Beasts of the Southern Wild leads with eight nominations, but Amour is close behind with seven. Moonrise Kingdom and Lincoln follow with six apiece, and my fifth Best Picture nominee, Argo, is joined by The Master and The Dark Knight Rises with five apiece. Winners go up tomorrow night.

My Award nominations: Picture/Director

Well, here they are. My five faves of the year (actually six including my lone director nominee). It's been a strong year, with lots of singular artistic achievements.

There are only 24 days left until the Oscars, which gives me just enough time to start running down predictions one category at a time. The first of those will land later today.

For now, check out my top films after the cut:

SAG solidifies Argo as Best Picture frontrunner

I was going to liveblog tonight's SAG awards, but the local TV station that was supposed to carry it checked out for the first 40 minutes. By the time they corrected their error, I was too embittered to bother blogging, forced to watch an hour of TV categories before getting back around to the movie ones.

Things shook down mostly according to plan. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence strengthened their holds on Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress respectively. Best Supporting Actor was predictably unpredictable, but it ended up going to Tommy Lee Jones, as likely an Oscar bet as any.

My Award nominations: Makeup and Hair

This is the only category this year in which none of my own nominees are up for the Oscar. Shame, shame, Makeup branch. Don't you understand that these three movies have the Best Makeup and Hair of the year?

Producers Guild preview

Tonight the first major industry guild will announce its winners: The Producers Guild of America. Not only are they the first guild out the gate in this loooong phase 2, but they're arguably the most important, or at least the most indicative, when it comes to winning Best Picture.

When the Academy made the switch to ten nominees and the preferential ballot back in 2009, the PGA was quick to shadow their decision. In all three years since, the PGA and Academy have matched up. So it follows that tonight's winner should be considered in the driver's seat for Best Picture... for the moment.

My Awards nominations: Costume Design

My nominees for Costume Design after the cut: