One Category at a Time: Picture

For this annual post I traditionally take a rigidly statistical approach to narrowing down the Best Picture nominees. I simply look for the contenders with the three key nominations of Director, Editing, and Screenplay, and consider them the only ones truly in the running. But in a year as off-kilter as this one, it has become apparent that my usual approach is not adequate.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

The contest for Best Film Editing is always closely associated with Best Picture. Since editors and directors work pretty much hand in hand, the editors branch of AMPAS tends to nominate based on quality of the films as much as quality of just the editing. On top of that, the film to win Best Film Editing is often well liked enough that it almost always wins multiple categories (last year's victory for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being among the rare exceptions). And since editing can be such an invisible art at times, the winning film is usually required to have the “most” editing, rather than the “best”, to earn the Academy's attention.

ACE, CAS both announce winners

Winners for the American Cinema Editors Awards went pretty much as expected. Oscar frontrunner William Goldenberg took home the award for Best Edited Dramatic Feature Film for Argo, while fellow Oscar nominees Jay Cassidy and Crispen Struthers won for Best Edited Comedy/Musical Feature Film for Silver Linings Playbook.

Malik Bendjelloul continued Searching for Sugar Man's dominance by winning the Documentary category, while Brave bested Oscar favourite Wreck-It Ralph in the Animated category. I'm starting to get some real vibes that Brave is the one that's gonna take Best Animated Feature next week. The marketing of Wreck-It Ralph may well have deterred many an Academy voter from even seeing it, whereas Pixar is a studio that usually garners respect from the industry. I may have to switch my prediction at the eleventh hour.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

The contest for Best Adapted Screenplay is stuffed with the four leading Best Picture contenders, which makes it rather tricky to anticipate this year. We have a difficult literary adaptation from a popular potential sweeper, a quirky screwball comedy that a lot of pundits seem to be underestimating, a verbose historical drama that glows with eloquent language, and a zingy crowd-pleaser that appears first in line to win Best Picture. Joining them is a scrappy indie whose best shot at winning anything may come in this category (not that it's a great shot).

One Category at a Time: Actress

After the SAG Awards, the Best Actress race appears to have a frontrunner, but there's more nuance to it than that. A couple of the nominees weren't even in competition for the SAG or the Golden Globes, and even though I find myself predicting the obvious choice, it's a category that feels ripe for an upset.

Sifting through the Brits' tea leaves...

The British love their tea, wot? And the British Academy of Film and Television Arts have left all sorts of tea leaves for awards pundits to analyze from today's BAFTA Movie Awards. Even though BAFTA never matches up exactly with AMPAS, we might do well to heed their winners more closely this year, as they could bear more significance in the Oscar race than ever before.

Why is BAFTA significant? It's not so much the membership overlap between them and AMPAS (although that factor is appreciable), but a procedural change the organization made to mirror the Academy's voting practices. In the past, the entire BAFTA membership was invited to determine all the nominees, while only the specific chapters (or branches) could determine the final winners in their associated categories. This often lead to some baffling snubs (Tree of Life's Cinematography snub, anyone?) and peculiar winners (remember In Bruges winning Original Screenplay?).

One Category at a Time: Director

For an Oscar year as weird as this one to ultimately yield another no-brainer Best Picture winner (from where we stand, at least) is a bit disappointing. Thankfully, all the uncertainty and unpredictability that was once thought to cloud the Best Picture race has instead been concentrated into the competition for Best Director, which is up for grabs in Ben Affleck's conspicuous absence.

In recent years with a Best Picture/Best Director split, Best Director has often gone to the presumed runner-up for Best Picture as a sort of consolation prize. To cite the examples, it certainly seems like Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist, and Traffic all came about as close to winning Best Picture as you can get without actually winning. But it begs the question: Which movie is in the runner-up position? Will that even matter?

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

This might take the cake as the year's most unpredictable category. Composed entirely of past winners, there are no narratives of “overdue actor still waiting for first Oscar” to be had. And with a pair of co-lead performances masquerading as supporting amongst true supporting players in popular Best Picture nominees, it leaves the contest as wide open as we've seen in years.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

The Supporting Actress slate doesn't seem has chock full of legit contenders as it has in years past. Not that any of these five performances are undeserving of some Oscar love, but four of them really don't hold a candle to the fifth, making this one of the night's slam dunk categories.

One Category at a Time: Actor

The Best Actor race this year was at its most interesting and competitive before the nominations. The big question was which of the six leading men in the hunt would be left off the Academy's ballot. It was never a question of who would end up winning the whole thing, as that has been obvious for a couple of months now.

SAG solidifies Argo as Best Picture frontrunner

I was going to liveblog tonight's SAG awards, but the local TV station that was supposed to carry it checked out for the first 40 minutes. By the time they corrected their error, I was too embittered to bother blogging, forced to watch an hour of TV categories before getting back around to the movie ones.

Things shook down mostly according to plan. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Lawrence strengthened their holds on Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress respectively. Best Supporting Actor was predictably unpredictable, but it ended up going to Tommy Lee Jones, as likely an Oscar bet as any.

SAG Preview...

Everything has been going Argo's way so far this season, but it might face a road block at tonight's Screen Actors Guild Awards. Actors make up the largest portion of the Academy's voting membership, and while a Best Ensemble win is not out of the cards for Argo's excellent cast, it's not favoured to win anything from SAG.

Rather, the two films poised to get the biggest boost from tonight's proceeding are Argo's stiffest competition for the Best Picture Oscar: Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln. Either of these movies is in good standing to win the Best Ensemble category (with a slight edge to SLP), and both are first in line to collect a Lead Acting award as well. They'll probably be duking it out in Best Supporting Actor, although that category could go a completely different direction.

The only other film that seems assured of a win is Les Miserables for Anne Hathaway's Oscar destined performance. Still, Sally Field continues to feel like a legitimate dark horse.

Here's hoping Skyfall's fearless daredevils can triumph in the Stunt Ensemble category.

My predictions after the cut.

Producers Guild preview

Tonight the first major industry guild will announce its winners: The Producers Guild of America. Not only are they the first guild out the gate in this loooong phase 2, but they're arguably the most important, or at least the most indicative, when it comes to winning Best Picture.

When the Academy made the switch to ten nominees and the preferential ballot back in 2009, the PGA was quick to shadow their decision. In all three years since, the PGA and Academy have matched up. So it follows that tonight's winner should be considered in the driver's seat for Best Picture... for the moment.

Costume Designer Guild nominees

The CDG as nominated all five of the films up for the Oscar, along with 10 others across their three feature film categories.

Excellence in Period Film

Anna Karenina – Jacqueline Durran

Argo – Jacqueline West

Les Misérables – Paco Delgado

Lincoln – Joanna Johnston

Moonrise Kingdom – Kasia Walicka-Maimone

Thrilled to see Moonrise Kingdom and Argo turn up here. I knew their subtle threads wouldn't catch the Academy's eye, but if they were going to get recognized anywhere, it would be with the guild. Good on you, CDG! But I wonder which of the three Oscar nominees in this bunch will win here? Probably Anna Karenina, but could be Les Mis or Lincoln just as easily.

My Awards nominations: Actor

Guess I'd better get started on these. I was going to leave them for after the Oscars, but it sorta just dawned on me how much time we have to kill until then. I still have a handful of films to see, so I'll start out with some of the categories that I've already pretty much set in stone, such as today's category: Best Actor.

Gotta say, this was by far the toughest one for me to narrow down this year. There are at least ten or eleven absolutely terrific performances that would be welcome here, and the quality of this year's leading men is well represented by the Oscar lineup as well. But tough decisions have to be made, so the five that I chose are:

American Cinema Editors nominate...

ACE Eddie nominations have landed just one day following Oscar nominations. Oscar snubees Les Mis and Skyfall can take some consolation in their citations here. All five Oscar nominees for Film Editing are accounted for.

Best Editing - Drama
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

The decade long streak of an ACE winner going on to win Best Film Editing at the Oscars was broken last year when The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo won (no comment) over The Descendants and The Artist. Not sure what the case will be this year. Argo and Zero Dark Thirty have showier editing, but Lincoln and Life of Pi appear to be more popular with the Academy. I'd still look to the winner of this prize to be the Oscar favourite.

Review - Silver Linings Playbook

Like the bipolar protagonist at its centre, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is prone to wild mood swings at the drop of a hat. Fluctuating between wry humour, dramatic pathos, and earnest romance, it may not bring you any closer to understanding mental illness, but it makes for a surprisingly fun and satisfying picture.

In fact, the film actually downplays the severity of mental illness insomuch as it suggests that everybody is, to an extent, “crazy”. Pat Solitano (Bradley Cooper) – an undiagnosed bipolar having just completed his stay at a psychiatric hospital following a particularly violent episode – may be the character whose mental issues are addressed most directly, but we come to see how he's less strange when surrounded by his unstable family and friends. Be it his OCD father (Robert De Niro) who superstitiously insists on very specific conditions in order to win money on NFL games, his marriage-smothered best friend (John Ortiz), his mental ward cohort (Chris Tucker), or even his well-meaning but stifling mother (Jackie Weaver), everyone in his life exhibits some degree of “crazy”.

NBR crowns Zero Dark Thirty

Mirroring the NYFCC's decision, the National Board of Review named Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty the best of the year, including honours for Bigelow herself and star Jessica Chastain. The film, which we mortals won't get to see almost until Oscar nominations are upon us, is shaping up to be the critics' favourite throughout the month of December, much to the chagrin of Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master I'm sure, which was perceived to have filled that slot up until just last week when Bigelow's film finally screened for press. Anderson's beguiling opus was shut out here as it was by the New York critics, failing to even make the top ten films list. It had better hope the L.A. critics stump for it in a big way, or it could vanish from the conversation entirely.

Another big winner is David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook, for which Russell won Best Adapted Screenplay and star Bradley Cooper won Best Actor against a wealth of Oscar-luring competition. This is a big boost for him. Costar Jennifer Lawrence is already a likely nominee for Best Actress, but Cooper is on the bubble in a crowded field. His win here is good springboard for his campaign.

New York Film Critics weigh in

New York is the first key critics group to announce awards for the 2012 film year, and the big winners were Steven Spielberg's Lincoln and Kathryn Bigelow's late-breaking Zero Dark Thirty. Each took home three honours from the NYC crowd.

The big loser has to be Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master. After inducing critical orgasms at all the fall festivals, the mesmerizing character study got shut out, along with more mainstream Oscar hopefuls Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Les Miserables, although they aren't as dependent on the boost of critics awards as The Master is.

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike and Bernie
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Best Documentary: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, The Central Park Five
Best Cinematography: Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
Best First Feature: David France, How to Survive a Plague