One Category at a Time: Best Picture

It's that time of year: This is the point of the season at which we are practically begging for the Oscars to finally be over and done with, as the preordained winner of the Best Picture Oscar waits impatiently (but none too nervously) to hear its title called after more than three long months of rigorous campaigning and precursor award victories. At least, that's what usually happens at this point of the season. This year, however, is unlike any I've observed before. The standard three-month march towards inevitability has been replaced by a three-month build of suspense, as this Best Picture derby has boiled down to a true crap shoot, and one at which multiple contenders (not just the two presumed frontrunners) have a plausible chance of winning.

It all started with the critics. While the highest profile groups went their own way -- New York anointing American Hustle and L.A. ending in an unprecedented tie between Her and Gravity -- it was ultimately 12 Years a Slave that settled in as the favourite with regional critics groups across America. The Golden Globes, though not hugely influential in their own right, shook things up by proving that the harrowing slavery drama could win the top prize on prestige alone, even if not genuinely loved enough to claim any categorized prizes. SAG gave a boost to mainstream option American Hustle, causing reasonable suspicion that it could be the one to beat, but then came the TSN turning point of the season: The Producers Guild of America, heretofore the unblemished harbinger of Oscar, split the decision between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave... with a preferential ballot to boot! (And I thought the LAFCA tie was a shocker!)

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actress

Of the four acting categories, this is definitely the one that feels like it's in the most flux. The four televised precursor awards having been split between two actresses; one who has made a fresh splash on the scene with a staggering dramatic performance accompanied by charming speeches on the red carpet and at the award podium, and another coming off a recent Oscar win and reveling in a flashy comedic turn. Let's take a look at them (oh, and the other three) after the cut.

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

This category seems pretty up in the air if you ask me. With neither of the two strongest Best Picture nominees in contention here, it feels as though this prize could go a few different ways. A similar situation arose last year when Django Unchained, Amour, and Zero Dark Thirty all seemed to have an angle in this race because none of them had a hope of actually winning Best Picture (whose highest contenders were adaptations). I can also envision three of this year's nominees as potential winners, so let's start with the one I am picking (with trepidation) for the win.

My Award nominations: Adapted Score

Surprise! I'm adding a category to my list of superlatives this year.

But first, a confession: Even though many voices on the Oscar-web (with sharper ears then mine) have long called for the Academy to reinstate this defunct category, I can honestly understand why they haven't. I myself would struggle to find enough applicable soundtracks in one year that add so much to their films as to merit awards attention. This year, however, was something of a banner year for this oft overlooked microcosm of film music, and so I figure I may as well recognize the best of them.

Throughout the 70s and 80s, the Academy kept renaming and finagling with this category, but they usually only nominated three at a time, so here are my top three Adapted Scores of the year:

One Category at a Time: Actor

What a tight year it's been for leading actors. We all knew that with such a glut of competition, someone was gonna be unpleasantly stiffed on nomination morning, but few of us probably anticipated that two of the season's top contenders (Robert Redford and Tom Hanks) would end up on the outside looking in. Since then, a clear frontrunner was established who it would be unwise not to predict. However, with an extended waiting period between nominations and voting, not to mention a strange BAFTA snub, there's still a lot of wiggle room. But first, the foremost candidate:

My Award nominations: Actor

What a year for this category. I easily could shuffle out all five of my own Best Actor nominees for the five that just missed and the lineup would still be incredible.

One Category at a Time: Director

The Best Picture race is a dead heat this year, which is such a rare occurrence in this age of the preferential ballot (which famously failed to determine the PGA's preference), that for the first time in the years I've been following the Oscars, we have to consider the Best Director race apart and separate from the Best Picture race. Now I hear you exclaim, "But, Awards Prognosticator!... We had to do that last year when Argo won Best Picture and Ang Lee won Best Director!" This is true. But last year was an odd exception wherein the DGA vote came so late, that it was unable to influence the Academy's directors branch into even nominating the Best Picture winner for Best Director. This year, however, there is little doubt that whichever film wins Best Picture will be one of the contenders for Best Director as well, but we still have to analyze that contest separately from Best Picture due to the closeness of the race. We can't afford the luxury of simply assuming that whatever wins the top prize naturally wins for its director too. It may well be the case at the end of the day, but we can't assume that as we have in years past. This time, there's more nuance than that.

Firstly, the frontrunner...

One Category at a Time: Cinematography

There are just 22 business days left until the Oscars, and yet it still feels like they're an eternity away. Part of that may have to do with the fact that the Winter Olympics (the only arena in which my home country can even come close to claiming world-power status, so I'll be watching them intently) has pushed the awards ceremony, and consequently the voting period, back a week.

That's an awful long wait, during which an awful lot can happen to affect the race. Gravity stands as the frontrunner at this moment, but we may have plenty of reason to believe otherwise by the time Oscar night is upon us. Heck: we have plenty of reason to believe otherwise right now! But I'll get to that category in due course. Obviously, I tend to start these prediction columns with the categories that are easiest to call, and one of the easiest calls this year is Best Cinematography.

Review - Nebraska

How do you define the essence of a man who's no longer here? No longer here in a mental sense, that is. Alexander Payne and veteran character actor Bruce Dern venture to do just that in Nebraska. As a character study about a somewhat tragic figure nearing the end of life's journey, it is rife with fascinating nuance, although not without expense to the story it tells on the surface.

Woody Grant (Dern) is a millionaire. Or so he believes. The letter he received in the mail clearly tells him that he's a “winner”, and failing to recognize the blatant scam, he sets out on foot from his home in Billings, Montana to Lincoln, Nebraska to claim his million dollars in person. Surely, any reasonable kin would agree that the time has come to put Woody in a home, but his son David (Will Forte) has other thoughts. Much to the chagrin of his harried mother (June Squibb) and his older brother (Bob Odenkirk), David plays along with his dad's delusion, agreeing to drive the stubborn codger to Lincoln until Woody accepts the reality of his quest. Stopping over in Woody's hometown – the depressed community of Hawthorne – gives some old family and friends a chance to catch up, but word about his money luck starts to get out of hand.

NBR names Spike Jonze's "Her" year's best

Another day, another precursor triumph for a film I won't get to see for ages. The National Board of Review named Spike Jonze's postmodern romance Her the Best Picture of 2013, with Jonze himself taking Best Director honours as well. Nebraska picked up a pair of acting honours for stars Bruce Dern and Will Forte (both of them arguable co-leads).

My favourite choices of the lot: Stories We Tell for Best Doc (but you already knew that), and Prisoners for Best Ensemble (it'll definitely be making my top five ensembles of the year).