My Award Nominations: Leading Actress

Yesterday I bit the bullet and committed to five nominees for Best Supporting Actress. Trying to do the same for the leading ladies was even more brutal. Forget five to ten Best Picture nominees... Let's apply that rule to Best Actress instead!

Oscar Noms 2016-17

Today has been too busy for me to provide any kind of in-depth response to the announcement of 2016's Oscar nominees, but here's an oversimplified rundown of The Good and The Bad (we'll hold off on The Ugly since most of these nominees are beauts). I'll have time to analyze each of the 24 races when "One Category at a Time" returns in a few weeks.

Until then, some off-the-top reactions:

THE GOOD

January is for Oscar Movies

Gonna be tough to keep up with the storm of guild announcements, televised awards shows, personal year-in-review posts and late-breaking Oscar players over the next two months. I'll just have to figure out a way.

For those last minute stragglers, I won't have the luxury of exercising my full review muscles (consider my La La Land piece a holiday indulgence), but I'll deposit my abbreviated thoughts here throughout the month.

My first screening of the new year was Denzel Washington's realization of the long dormant Fences adaptation, scripted by its original playwright August Wilson some time before his 2005 death. The screenplay itself doesn't take much advantage of the opportunity for other forms of exposition besides dialogue, but Washington's direction is sturdy, unobtrusive, and has a more cinematic eye.

One Category at a Time: Actress

There have been whisperings that Annette Bening is lurking as a serious spoiler threat in this category, pushing the publicity wagon hard as she can in the final weeks before ballots are due. And there's certainly a valid case you can make for her upsetting the frontrunner: she's a beloved actress who's put in years of hard work to create a diverse and respected filmography, she's due for a win, and her performance in The Kids Are All Right is a sincere one. However, if she was going to turn the corner, it had to be at this past Sunday's BAFTAs, and of course that didn't go her way.

So, having nailed down the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, it would still be foolish to predict anyone but Natalie Portman taking the Oscar. You'll be hearing no complaints from me. It's a helluva performance that showcases such a wide range from the actress, and she still manages to keep it under control, which is remarkable given how out of control her character is. Even though Black Swan isn't really the Academy's cuppa tea, they surely won't mind awarding it this one prize. After last year's mini-travesty, looks like this category is gonna be right back on track with a quality winner.

But of course, that would still be the case even if Portman somehow loses, because every nominee is all aces. It's simply impossible for them to pick a bad winner from this bunch. Jennifer Lawrence owned Winter's Bone from start to finish with her no-bullshit stoicism, Michelle Williams spun a heartbreaking tandem with Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, and Nicole Kidman's brilliant turn in Rabbit Hole is one of the most emotionally flavourful she's ever given.

I know how corny this sounds, but seriously, they're all winners.

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Runner-up: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank