One Category at a Time: Actor

What more can really be said? Everyone who follows movie awards (and even those who don't!) knows that Colin Firth is winning an Academy Award on February 27th. And not without good reason. His turn as the Duke of York is a heartfelt portrayal of damaged self-esteem, and he handles his character's transformation into a humble but unafraid leader with grace and emotion.

Even though it's a foregone conclusion that Firth has it in the bag, it's still worth tipping the hat to his fellow nominees, who comprise a stellar lineup. It's pleasing to see Javier Bardem's understated but devastating work in Biutiful didn't go unrewarded (even if it came at the expense of Ryan Gosling). Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are on hand to represent the younger Hollywood generation with a pair of outstanding performances -- in The Social Network and 127 Hours respectively -- that paint vivid portraits of human nature and the consequences of our failure to connect with others (or the pleasures of our succeeding to do so). And of course, coming off his long-time-coming victory last year, Jeff Bridges is back in vogue for an unforgettable and highly enjoyable scenery-chewing outing in True Grit.

It's a scene-stealer to be sure, but not an Oscar-stealer. Having won nearly every critics award, the Golden Globe, the Critics' Choice, and soon the SAG, I'll be shocked if anyone other than Colin Firth wins it.

Will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Runner-up: Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

My Award nominations: Actor

Crowded field, as always. Wish I could include more. My five Best Actor picks are:

GEORGE CLOONEY in The American:
George Clooney is at his understated best playing the most professional of professional killers with a non-fussy attitude and an excellent sense of dramatic timing. The film's quiet, observational style is the perfect stage for the subtlety and detail of Clooney's performance. He doesn't need much dialogue; his face does all the talking.

AARON ECKHART in Rabbit Hole:
Nicole Kidman is getting most of the press for her terrific performance in Rabbit Hole, but Aaron Eckhart is equally brilliant, playing a character who staunchly clings to every memory of his son in order to subdue a bitter rage that simmers just beneath a stoic front. Watching him finally lash out is painful but entirely understandable.

JESSE EISENBERG in The Social Network:
Eisenberg gives a highly mannered yet nuanced performance as Zuckerberg, or rather, a quasi-alternate-universe projection of Zuckerberg. He doesn't try to do an imitation, but carves out a unique and complicated social outsider who seems to suffer from both an inferiority and superiority complex all at once, wanting to belong, but on his own.

JAMES FRANCO in 127 Hours:
He’s the film's biggest asset, holding all 90 minutes of the movie almost entirely by himself, bringing not only a lot of energy and charisma, but also the restraint and tact to evoke his character's arc from blissful ignorance to his moment of epiphany. What I’ll ultimately remember 127 Hours as is a gripping performance piece from a skilled actor.

RYAN GOSLING in Blue Valentine:
A wholly realized, lived-in performance that cuts close to the bone. Gosling turns himself inside out for Derek Cianfrance's devastating marital drama, embodying all the love, anger, fear, compassion, and regret that goes hand-in-hand with marriage all at once, but in different proportion and focus depending on the progression of his character.

Just missed: Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception, Robert Duvall in Get Low, Colin Firth in The King's Speech

Predictions - January 2011

Happy New Year, one and all!

I'd say it's high time my sidebar predictions were updated, and the most noteworthy changes in the wake of the critics awards are:

-Winter`s Bone makes a big entry into Best Picture and Supporting Actor.
-The Town also joins the Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actor races.
-Black Swan dives into Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography.
-The Fighter now appears in Best Director and double dips in Supporting Actress.
-Ryan Gosling and Jesse Eisenberg join Best Actor.
-Additions in the craft categories: Alice in Art Direction, Shutter Island in Art Direction & Makeup, True Grit in Costume, The Social Network in Score, and 127 Hours in Score & Sound Editing.

I'm also going to venture some preliminary winner predictions before the guild awards start pouring in. From this point in the race, this is how I see it going down on Oscar night:

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Film Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Original Song: "I See The Light", Tangled
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Best Foreign Language Film: Life, Above All