You could make a strong case for The Artist coming out on top here. It's easily the strongest Best Picture nominee, and one of only two cited in Original Screenplay. A Best Picture sweep could carry it to victory, and it wouldn't be unjustified. Michel Hazanavicius' script is often clever and brims with writerly detail on the page. However, the Academy at large equates good writing with good dialogue. The Artist's distinctive form is its own saboteur in this particular category.
As much as the signs were indicating it would happen, I stubbournly refused to predict Bridesmaids for a Best Original Screenplay nomination, putting my faith in the usually classy writers branch to opt for a higher concept comedy. Serves me right. At the very least it's a nice reward for cowriter and star Kristin Wiig, who is the best thing about the film's much lauded ensemble. Good for her. She should be happy just to be there, because there's no way the Academy's gonna spring for a glorified chick flick here.
I hope you don't think that assessment was too harsh, because I'm even less pleased with the nomination for J.C. Chandor's verbose but forgettable talking-heads drama Margin Call. The rookie filmmaker attempts to capture the same punch of Glengarry Glen Ross by telling the story of how the financial world went to shit literally overnight, but he's no David Mamet. The dialogue is dry and often dumbed down in order to circumvent having to really dig into the complexities of the stock market failure. This being the film's only nomination, it won't win.
Now we get to the good stuff. My favourite screenplay of the year, and the likely winner due to the boost it gets from a Best Picture nomination, is Woody Allen's delightful Midnight in Paris. His rich cavalcade of characters and trademark sidesplitting dialogue are just ornaments hung upon the deeper thematic context of his story. He comes to an understated but completely honest epiphany about the virtues and vices of nostalgia, proving himself to be a writer who is ever so self-aware but at the same time self-exploring.
Finally, the not-entirely-unexpected but still pleasantly surprising inclusion of Asghar Farhadi's brilliant screenplay for A Separation is the sort of thing for which I love the writers branch. Foreign filmmakers have been cited here before, but unless they have a profile as high as Pedro Almodovar's, they don't win. However, if this can turn the tide in what might be a tight race for Best Foreign Language Film in favour of
A Separation, then the nomination here will have served a meaningful purpose.
Will win: Midnight in Paris
Runner-up: The Artist
Should win: Midnight in Paris
Should've been nominated: Beginners
