Busy Guild Weekend: WGA, CAS, MPSE, MAHS

We're into the final stretch, and this long weekend saw a smattering of the remaining guilds announce their winners for the year (only the CDG is left).

The most contested of them would have to be the Writers Guild of America Awards, where the three presumed Best Picture heavyweights Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea all squared off against each other for Best Original Screenplay. Moonlight won that distinction, giving me just a bit more comfort in sticking with it for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar, although this gives us no further hints in the nail-biter between La La Land and Manchester for the Original Screenplay prize.

With both Moonlight and Lion absent from the guild's Best Adapted Screenplay category, Arrival was able to capitalize. What a wonderful surprise it would be if it could translate its Critics Choice and WGA cache into Oscar gold!

The prize for Documentary Screenplay went to Robert Kenner's Command and Control, which had been shortlisted for the Oscar but failed to make the final five.

[UPDATED] Guilds Round-Up: CAS, VES, ASC, MUAHS, CDG

The BAFTA and PGA weren't the only industry groups that got a word in yesterday. Here's a summary of other artisan guilds and societies that have had their say in advance of Friday's Oscar deadline:

AMERICAN SOCIETY of CINEMATOGRAPHERS

Arrival -- Bradford Young
La La Land -- Linus Sandgren
Lion -- Greig Fraser
Moonlight -- James Laxton
Silence -- Rodrigo Prieto
That's a mighty fine-looking lineup, folks.
In fact, swap one of these out for The Light Between Oceans and you have my own personal ballot. As it stands, this could be a perfect match-up with Oscar's cinematography branch. To see Bradford Young and Greig Fraser nominated alongside eachother would certainly make happy many a cinephile who have itched to see them recognized for years. But I have a sneaky suspicion Robert Richardson could still figure in for Live By Night. He's pulled the very same trick sans guild nomination before.

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY

Sound Mixing -- Live Action Motion Picture

Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
Sully
I'm not sold on Doctor Strange as an Oscar nominee here (no MCU movie has been nominated in this category if you can believe it). As to what takes it over, I'm leaning towards Arrival, which is infinitely more deserving anyway, but quality of work is no guarantee with this branch. Are we all excited to see Kevin O'Connell (Hacksaw Ridge) lose his 21st Oscar to another musical on February 26th?
I know I am (*ties hangman's noose around neck*)

The Revenant and Mad Max stilling burning up the artisan guilds

The Cinema Audio Society and the Makeup and Hair Stylists Guild announced their best of the year last night, and unsurprisingly it was The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road (respectively) that came away as the big winners, solidifying their grasps on those correlative Oscar categories.

Mind you, these are still far from sure things, and the biggest competition these two movies face in Best Sound Mixing and Best Makeup and Hair are... each other.

'Birdman' Complicates Sound Mixing Race with CAS Win

In a busy guild evening that also included the WGA and the MHG, The Cinema Audio Society announced their picks for the best mixed soundtracks of the year last night. While the former two guilds decided on winners that basically align with the current pundit logic of who will win the respective Oscar categories for writing and makeup (The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and possibly Guardians of the Galaxy), the CAS has thrown the Best Sound Mixing contest for a bit of a loop.

Birdman, with its artfully arranged sonic subtleties and crazy guild momentum, bested its louder competitors (and fellow Oscar nominees) American Sniper and Interstellar. Alejandro G. Inarritu's backstage dramedy is clearly the industry favourite overall, primed to claim the Best Picture Oscar in a week's time, but it would just make such an atypical winner in this field. Even Hugo had more conspicuous sound work.

CAS Nominees include... Interstellar?

The Cinema Audio Society has named their choices for the best sound mixes of the year, and the biggest jaw-dropper is that apparently they heard something in Interstellar that the rest of us couldn't hear (literally, couldn't hear). How can this happen? And from a group of sound mixing professionals, no less!?!

I wonder if, assuming it gets the nominations, it might take both sound categories at the Oscars just because it seems on paper to be that 'type' of movie. Do the right thing, Academy: Actually listen to the films and decide what you think has the best sound.

For instance, a film like, say, Birdman (also nominated by the CAS) is a great example of a movie wherein the clarity of the sound recording and post-production mix does an excellent job of pulling you into the scene.

Two of the other nominees are ones I'm currently predicting for Oscar nods; American Sniper and Unbroken, although I have to think long and hard about the latter's real chances. Rounding out the five is Guardians of the Galaxy, which I wouldn't expect to score anywhere beyond effects and makeup with AMPAS.

The five CAS nominees, again, are:

American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken

The animated contenders after the cut.

Gravity and 12 Years a Slave take final guild honours

The last two guilds to hand out hardware this season (the Cinema Audio Society and the Costume Designers Guild) did so last night, making winners out of leading Best Picture contenders Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

Cinema Audio Society sounds off

The CAS has listed what they believe to be the year's finest achievements in sound mixing. Presumed Oscar heavyweights Gravity and Captain Phillips are accounted for, along with Inside Llewyn Davis' gorgeous musical assembly. Lone Survivor and Iron Man 3 round out the remaining two slots, but whether or not they'll turn up on the Oscar ballot is another question.

The big takeaway, for me at least, is that All Is Lost is conspicuously absent yet again. After missing with every single guild this season (save for an embarrassing Stunt Ensemble nod from SAG that does not include the daring Mr. Redford), one would have thought that surely the sound mixers would finally stand up for it, but no dice. I expect Gravity to take it anyway, and it's hardly undeserving.

Over on the animated side of things, it would appear Frozen is the one to beat. It's joined by likely-soon-to-be-fellow-Animated-Feature-nominees Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, and The Croods. They're joined by not-so-likely-to-be-Animated-Feature-nominee Walking With Dinosaurs.

ACE, CAS both announce winners

Winners for the American Cinema Editors Awards went pretty much as expected. Oscar frontrunner William Goldenberg took home the award for Best Edited Dramatic Feature Film for Argo, while fellow Oscar nominees Jay Cassidy and Crispen Struthers won for Best Edited Comedy/Musical Feature Film for Silver Linings Playbook.

Malik Bendjelloul continued Searching for Sugar Man's dominance by winning the Documentary category, while Brave bested Oscar favourite Wreck-It Ralph in the Animated category. I'm starting to get some real vibes that Brave is the one that's gonna take Best Animated Feature next week. The marketing of Wreck-It Ralph may well have deterred many an Academy voter from even seeing it, whereas Pixar is a studio that usually garners respect from the industry. I may have to switch my prediction at the eleventh hour.

Cinema Audio Society noms

The guild announcements continue as the CAS has dropped their five (*actually ten) best mixed films of the year. I had only recently removed The Hobbit from my own predictions, but its inclusion here forces me to re-reconsider. All three LOTR films got Best Sound Mixing nominations after all. Presumed nominees Les Mis and Skyfall (the former the likely winner) were also mentioned, while Best Picture heavyweights Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty round out the top five.

The biggest surprise for me is the society's decision to inaugurate a separate category for animated films -- further suppression of this increasingly ghettoized medium. I'd have thought that if there's any field in which animated films could, and should, be judged on an equal playing field with live-action, it's sound!

Anyway, the nominees, and some final pontifications, after the cut.

CAS winner muddles Best Sound Mixing race

As always, it's a tricky year for the Sound categories, and last night's CAS victory for the mixing team of Hugo did nothing to clarify. With the CAS award and BAFTA in hand (not to mention the fact that it's clearly the most beloved nominee), it's looking good to nab the Sound Mixing prize from the Academy as well. But I'm not convinced. The CAS has only matched up with the Academy three times in the past ten years. If voters really only vote for their favourite film, wouldn't The King's Speech have won last year? The sound in the film needs to be obvious in order to win.

I'm going to continue leaning on my theory that the Motion Picture Sound Editors (who announce tonight) will prove a better gauge of both Sound categories, as I'm just not comfortable predicting a split. War Horse is just such a typical winner. That said, if the MPSE shuts War Horse out tonight, I may have to welch on my initial predictions and go with Hugo. Or, I could predict a split in the hopes of getting at least one right, rather than go all in and risk getting both wrong.

ACE, CAS, WGA, MPSE preview

It's a busy weekend for guild awards looking to have their say before Oscar polls close on Tuesday.

The American Cinema Editors would be a more important announcement if it weren't for their separation of the nominees into Drama and Comedy categories. The Artist is obviously going to win in the Comedy category, while Drama is probably going the way of Hugo (although I could see it going to Dragon Tattoo as well). As for the Oscar, it'll be down to The Artist and whatever film does win for Drama, as the Oscar winner for Editing has won the ACE Eddie for the last ten years in a row.

The Cinema Audio Society only nominated two films that went on to receive Sound Mixing nods from the Academy; Hugo and Moneyball. I'm anticipating Hugo will take it from the Society, but am still sticking with War Horse to impress the Academy.

The Writers Guild of America is probably going to award Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay and Moneyball for Adapted, a pair of winners I wouldn't be surprised to see repeat at the Oscars, though I am expecting The Descendants to come out on top with the Academy.

Finally, the Motion Picture Sound Editors have a few categories in which to acknowledge the year's best sound editing. The important category in terms of Oscar is Best Sound Effects and Foley, where I'm guessing it'll be War Horse. Interesting to note: for four of the last five years, the winner of that category with the MPSE as gone on to win the Oscar for Sound Editing, and since the two Sound categories so often go to the same film, this guild is possibly a more accurate bellwether of Best Sound Mixing than the CAS.

CAS nominees

The Cinema Audio Society nominees for 2011 are:

Hanna (Roland Winke, Christopher Scarabosio, Craig Berkey, Andrew Dudman)
Hugo (John Midgley, Tom Fleischman, Simon Rhodes)
Moneyball (Ed Novick, Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Brad Haenel)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Lee Orloff, Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes, Alan Meyerson)
Super 8 (Mark Ulano, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Dan Wallin)

We can usually count on the CAS to throw a curveball into the Best Sound Mixing race. Last year, they nominated Shutter Island when no one was looking, correlative to this year's surprise nominations for Moneyball and Joe Wright's Hanna.

Transformers shafted by CAS. Bumblebee doesn't like the sound of that.

But the surprise inclusions aren't nearly as informative as the surprise snubs. Transformers' unjustifiable omission is a discouraging sign. Last year, the guild prompted minor outrage by ignoring TRON Legacy's sensational mix, a film which then proceeded to be blanked by the Academy (although it did pop up in Sound Editing).
It may be that Transformers is on the bubble here more than I would have imagined.

Instead, the critically trashed blockbuster they decided to go with was the fourth Pirates installment, which gives me an uneasy vibe. Something's been tickling my mind these last couple of weeks that Pirates might end up with an unexpectedly strong showing in the Sound/Sound/Effects categories. It already feels like a threat to swipe a vfx nomination, and this mention for its sound only scaffolds its hopes. The Motion Picture Sound Editors announce their nominees tomorrow, perhaps lending some clarity to this murky situation.

True Grit takes CAS

The Coens' trusty sound team, Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, and Peter Kurland repeated their 2008 victory for No Country for Old Men by winning the Cinema Audio Society Award last night, this time for True Grit. Good for them. It is a fine mix, even if not the best of the nominees.

Inception feels awfully vulnerable, in both Sound categories actually, but I think I'll stick with it. Remember, No Country for Old Men's subtle mix ended up losing the Oscar to a loud, respected action flick. And the CAS only correctly anticipates Oscar a little more than half the time, and having done so the last two years in a row, this just feels like a year when the two groups will go separate ways.

Still, I've got a uneasy feeling about this. Maybe we'll see a split?

ACE, CAS, MPSE predictions

It's a big guild weekend. ACE and CAS announce tonight, MPSE tomorrow. Here are my guesses:

American Cinema Editors

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic): The Social Network

The last ten Oscar winners for Editing all won an ACE Eddie first, so this prediction may be wishful thinking on my part. If The King's Speech wins it, there's your Oscar winner.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical): Scott Pilgrim vs the World

I firmly believe The Kids Are All Right deserves it here, but it would be so nice to see Scott Pilgrim come out of this awards season with something!

Best Edited Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Hard to argue with that, but it could be How to Train Your Dragon, which would be fine by me.

Best Edited Documentary: Inside Job

It's probably the Oscar frontrunner (hard to tell), but I'll do flips if Exit Through the Gift Shop takes it! Best. Editing. Of. The. Year.

Cinema Audio Society

I'm rooting for Black Swan, but it looks doubtful. Could be The Social Network, but I'm going with Inception. If True Grit wins it, look out on Oscar night!


Motion Picture Sound Editors just taking wild guesses here

Best Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Film: TRON Legacy
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Music, Dialogue and ADR in a Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
Best Music Editing in a Feature Film: Inception
Best Music Editing in a Musical Feature: Burlesque
Best Sound Editing in a Documentary: Restrepo
Best Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in a Foreign Feature: Lebanon

What to do about Sound...

Interesting factoid: The Academy has only been nominating five films for Sound Editing for the last five years (up until 2006 it was only three nominees), and every year those nominees have matched up 4/5 with the Sound Mixing nominees.

Assuming a continuation of that pattern, I might touch up my Sound predictions a bit, but that means that only six films can earn nominations for Sound, and as we know, there are many more contenders than six.

What are the locks? I'd say Inception is safe in both categories, and, despite its absence from the CAS nominees, so is TRON Legacy. What else is there?

Well, if there is a 4/5 matchup, then there can be only one film per category that is not nominated the other. For Sound Mixing, the hopeful that best fills that description might be The Social Network, which has a fine mix recognized by the CAS, but is highly unlikely to grab a Sound Editing nomination.

CAS nominees!

The Cinema Studio Society's choices for the best sound mixes of the year are:

Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Black Swan and Inception lead the way here, if you ask me. They're far and away the best mixes I've heard this year.

The Social Network had a strong mix as well but I wasn't expecting it to catch on as a contender here. Obviously goodwill extends beyond just the major guilds. Same with True Grit, which has a decent soundscape but not one I'd necessarily have thought awards-worthy.

The most pleasant inclusion is Shutter Island, which just missed out with my own sound mixing nominations.