One Category at a Time: Actress

Can we call a moratorium on Best Actress always being called a "weak" category? More often than not this kind of talk stems from people who are too lazy to search for talented leading ladies flying well below the mainstream radar, and who balk at the notion of an awards-caliber performance coming from a less-than-awards-caliber film.

Yet nearly every year the Academy comes up with five terrific nominees, and if it seems like the pre-nomination field is thinner than that of the leading men on the other side of the gender divide, it certainly speaks more to the systemic male dominance of the film industry than to the quality of the lesser seen -- though not necessarily fewer -- Oscar-worthy female performances.

In fact, having a category in which the multi-nominated Oscar heavyweights don't figure in as prominently as they would in, say, Best Actor, can be a blessing, as it forces audiences and Academy members alike to seek out titles that could use the exposure. If this crop of nominees can encourage a few more people to go see Wild or Two Days, One Night, then it aught to be celebrated rather than dismissed as "weak".

Review - The Theory of Everything

"Cosmology," responds PhD candidate Stephen Hawking when asked about religion at a Cambridge mixer in 1963. "It's religion for scientific atheists."

This answer may seem like an odd way to pick up girls (especially proper Christian ones), but it strikes a chord for the young woman who's asking him – and who just so happens to be his future wife, Jane. Perhaps she too sees the beauty in his pursuit of a single universal equation that can explain all the mysteries of time and space; A 'theory of everything'.

It's not the equation, however, but the two lovers who become the subjects of The Theory of Everything, directed by successful documentary filmmaker James Marsh in his narrative feature debut. From that first cosmic spark of attraction to their gradual growing apart and everything in between (including the renowned physicist's long battle with disease and disability), the film chooses to deal more with humanistic romance than scientific philosophy, though packaged as a by-the-numbers biopic with Oscar aspirations for its stars Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne.

One Category at a Time: Best Actress

Even from this early vantage point, it's clear that 2011 is not at a lack for juicy leading female roles with big awards potential.

One of the most obvious contenders on everyone's radar is perennial favourite Meryl Streep in the role of former British PM Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Biopic roles are always held in Oscar's favour, even when the movie itself is not. Given Streep's incredible later-career popularity and the nature of the part, I'd say she's a very strong bet.

But perhaps she'll have some stiff competition from five-time nominee Glenn Close, a bonafide member of the "overdue club". She plays a woman who poses as a butler in 19th C Ireland in Albert Nobbs, which she also co-wrote. Sounds interesting enough to me, but will Oscar bite?

As counter point to those two established actresses, there's a chance newcomer Felicity Jones (who received strong reviews out of Sundance for her performance in Like Crazy) could be the ingenue of the year. But it's a small film, and whether or not it gains Jones any traction may come down how much critical favour it can curry.

A role which could garner some attention is recent nominee Michelle Williams as the singular Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marylin. Hollywood enjoys seeing Hollywood take on old-Hollywood, and playing that era's iconic sex symbol gives Williams a great opportunity to impress. But is she a lead or a co-lead? Vote-splitting could hurt.

Finally, I'm taking a bit of long shot on Rooney Mara (who I loved, if ever so briefly, in The Social Network), who will be tackling the role of Lisbeth Salander in David Fincher's remake of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The same role earned Swedish actress Noomi Rapace some awards consideration just this past year. Can the American version improve?

Predicted five:
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Felicity Jones in Like Crazy
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn or Take This Waltz
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Also consider: Anne Hathaway One Day, Jennifer Hudson Winnie, Keira Knightly A Dangerous Method, Robin Wright Penn The Conspirator, Emma Stone The Help, Tilda Swinton We Need to Talk About Kevin, Charlize Theron Young Adult, Rachel Weisz The Whistleblower

One Category at a Time: Best Picture (part 2)

As attested by those who attended it this past February, the Sundance Film Festival apparently did not offer up much in the way of Oscar fodder this year. But one that did turn some heads, especially for its breakout star Felicity Jones, is Like Crazy, a romantic drama about a British woman separated from her American lover upon expiration of her student visa. You may as well consider this prediction a placeholder for whatever small independent film happens to win the Academy's favour this year. There's always at least one (probably two, with ten slots open).

This past year's Oscar winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, Aaron Sorkin, may be back in the race sooner than we'd expect for Moneyball. He and Steve Zaillian, another past winner of Adapted Screenplay, have fashioned a script from the non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about how Oakland Athletic's general manager Billy Beane assembled a competitive team on a shoestring budget by employing analytical statistic methods. I'll admit it doesn't exactly sound rivetting, but neither did the origin story of Facebook, and we all saw how well Sorkin's take on that turned out. The film will be directed by Bennett Miller (nominated five years ago for Capote) and star Brad Pitt.

Let's not forget the reason the Best Picture field was expanded to ten nominees in the first place; to make room for critically-respected blockbusters. That said, it's quite conceivable there might not be any films that fit the bill this year, given how many sequels and superhero movies there are, but one original premise that already has the Internet abuzz with a titillating trailer is Super 8, from J.J. Abrams, whose Star Trek only just missed out on a Best Picture nomination last year. I'm not at all confident in this prediction. It'll need positive reviews to even stand a chance.

I've been predicting Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life for three consecutive years now, only for it to continue to linger in distribution limbo. Finally, this Spring, at long last, it will see the light of day, and I must say I'm excited. But will expectations be too high? Cinephiles have been waiting a long time to see this film. Can it survive after literally years of extended hype? And even so, is it the Academy's type of movie? I'm hoping for the best.

Steven Spielberg hasn't been a Best Picture nominee since Letter from Iwo Jima, but he could be back next year with another Academy friendly movie called War Horse, which tells the story of a young man who follows his beloved horse into World War I after it is sold to the cavalry. Nearly all the same department heads from Saving Private Ryan have joined up with Spielberg on this one, giving it massive across-the-board potential, and that sentimental storyline can only help matters.

Take these ten predictions lightly. It's just a shot in the dark. If even four of these make it into the Big Ten, I'll consider myself successful.

Predicted ten:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
The Iron Lady
Like Crazy
Moneyball
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Also consider: Albert Nobbs, The Beaver, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jane Eyre, One Day, Water for Elephants, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Whistleblower, Winnie, Wuthering Heights, Young Adult.