MPSE tie keeps Sound Editing Oscar race tight

As though it weren't already tough enough to predict the sound categories for tonight, the Motion Picture Sound Editors went and split their top honour (Feature FX/Foley) between the two presumed Oscar frontrunners for Best Sound Editing; The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road. I think this very neatly epitomizes just how closely the craft categories are going to be contested between these two movies, whether in the sound categories or design categories or editing or cinematography or effects. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out 10 hours from now.

In other (happy) news, Love & Mercy, Inside Out and Son of Saul also received Golden Reel Awards last night for their terrific sound work, even though Oscar sadly didn't take notice. Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Bridge of Spies took one apiece as well. Lots of wealth spread by the MPSE.

Best Sound Editing: Feature English Language – FX/Foley (TIE)
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD & THE REVENANT

One Category at a Time: Best Picture

Usually by this point in the season, we've had enough indicators lining up behind one title to make calling Best Picture a mere formality on our Oscar night scorecards. The only instance in the last ten years that caused any confusion was two years ago, when the PGA ended in an unprecedented tie. The Producers Guild may not have split hairs this year, but they may as well have, because the rest of the industry has been so uniformly divided among the top three contenders that this may be an even tighter race than the famous Gravity/Slave sprint.

For starters, we can pare down the field of eight nominees. Figuring where they'd rank is an exercise in pure, unfounded speculation. But it's also kinda fun, so humour me.

One Category at a Time: Production Design

Without a doubt, the toughest below-the-line awards to call this year are the design categories. The critics, the guilds, and BAFTA have unanimously lined up behind one film in both Costume Design and (today's topic) Production Design. But will the Academy really go there in either design field, let alone both?

One Category at a Time (x2): Sound Mixing+Editing

It seems like every year I end up saying something along the lines of, "the sound categories are especially tough this year". In truth, they're just hard every year. Which precursor do you believe in? Do you double down on one movie winning both (usually the case), or do you hedge your bets by predicting a split? Will it even be the right split?

I twist myself into a pretzel every year running over the permutations, so this year I'm gonna do myself a favour and just get Sound Mixing and Sound Editing over with quickly in one brief post. Like ripping off a band-aid.

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

In most instances, the foundation of support behind Best Picture nominated films is a considerable factor in predicting Oscar winners in other categories. And in some instances, a completely different narrative takes hold that makes such things irrelevant. We may be seeing that this year in Best Supporting Actor, which houses four performances from Best Picture nominees, yet the frontrunner represents his movie's sole nomination.

One Category at a Time: Original Score

Another tricky call this year presents itself in Best Original Score. It's a category that almost always goes to a Best Picture nominee, of which there's only a single one in play. And yet... it doesn't really sound like a winner.

My Award Nominations: Supporting Actor

There was a lot more to choose from in the supporting ranks than among the leading men this year. I could list my top twenty picks and still not have mentioned everyone worth mentioning. My picks for Best Supporting Actor:

My Award Nominations: Production Design

This weekend I'm tackling the design categories and cinematography, and as always there's an excellent variety of work that spoils us for choice. Behold my picks for the Best Production Design of the year.

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

With only a handful of weeks before the Oscars, now is the time for me to start formulating some predictions, and I'll start with what may be the surest lock of the year, Best Original Screenplay.

It's hard to imagine the prize going to anything but the former Best Picture frontrunner Spotlight. Though it's no longer favoured to win the top award after The Big Short's momentum shifting PGA win, Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer's dense journalistic procedural will surely be given its due here.

The nearest challenger -- a distant second despite being a perfectly respectable option -- is probably Matt Charman and the Coens' austere political quasi-thriller Bridge of Spies, being the only other Best Picture nominee in the field.

PGA Preview + My Award Nominations: Original Screenplay

Tonight all eyes will be on the Producers Guild of America, who have matched the Academy all six years of the expanded Best Picture era so far. Pundit logic suggests that Spotlight (my prediction) is the only movie that can survive the rigors of the preferential ballot, although I wouldn't put it past them to be sufficiently impressed by the gargantuan production that was The Revenant. Spotlight is a relatively small and very talkative movie after all; Not the type that usually wins Best Picture, but I'll try to remain optimistic.

While the producers' decision may ultimately end the perceived race for the Academy's highest honour, the race for my own awards is just getting started. Each weekend from now until the Oscars I'll be publishing my own list of personal preferences, starting with Best Original Screenplay.

BAFTA nominations

So the last major industry group to sound off before the Oscar ballot deadline has done so. Good news for Bridge of Spies and Carol, who lead nominations with nine apiece.

BEST FILM
“The Big Short” -- Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt
“Bridge of Spies” -- Kristie Macosko Krieger, Marc Platt, Steven Spielberg
“Carol” -- Elizabeth Karlsen, Christine Vachon, Stephen Woolley
“The Revenant” -- Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Arnon Milchan, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
“Spotlight” -- Steve Golin, Blye Pagon Faust, Nicole Rocklin, Michael Sugar
Good day to be producer Steve Golin, but the absence of American blockbusters Mad Max and The Martian probably indicates that they're chances at actually winning the Oscar for Best Picture are limited.

October Recap

So October is a wrap! As I was cobbling together my last-minute Doof Warrior costume in time for last night's frivolities, I figured now was the best time to start taking note of how the 2015-16 Oscar race is shaping up.

I realize that for many, the September festival circuit is the official kick-off of awards season. But for those of us without press credentials or travel time to burn, October is when we actually get to see the buzzy titles we've been reading about for a month or more. And this October was chalk full of them.

Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture & Director

If you've been tracking the various films I've been predicting in certain categories, then it should go without saying what I'm anticipating to be Best Pictures players. I'll go the limit and pick ten, even though we all know that'll never happen.

Early Oscar Predictions: Music

Obviously, it's impossible to judge a film's soundtrack before it's released, or even recorded which may be the case with many of this year's upcoming prospects. Thankfully for us obsessive prognosticators, the music branch has some old habits that can lay the foundation for early guesswork. For starters, they are notoriously insular, usually only choosing one or two first-time nominees per year in the Best Original Score category.

So who are some branch favourites with multiple irons in the fire this year?

Early Oscar Predictions: Visual Post-Production

Once principle photography has wrapped, the long, laborious post-production process begins. Editors splice together all the footage while visual effects artists and animators complete the effects shots.

The editing branch has a habit for mostly cribbing from the Best Picture lineup for their own nominees. That doesn't give us much to go on from a predictive standpoint, but there are a few early contenders that wouldn't be terrible bets.

Early Oscar Predictions: Design Categories

With the script finished and the project green-lighted, the next stage is setting the stage, as all the elements that will comprise the onscreen world of the movie need to be designed and built in pre-production. The Academy's production design, costume design, and makeup/hairstyling branches have traditionally favoured achievements in these fields that evoke period settings or more imaginative fantasy worlds. Movies that manage to straddle both of those design realms must always be considered formidable.

Early Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay

Guess what, guys: It's officially the first day if Spring (though try telling that to the weather), and what better way to kick off the season of new life than by Springing forward into the new Oscar season with some early predictions!

Each Friday until the end of April, I'll be adding new categories to the sidebar with accompanying articles. In the spirit of the filmmaking process, the category order will be based on the order of steps of making a movie. "Loosely" based, at least. There's nothing about these early guesses that isn't completely loosey goosey anyway. But one thing we can assume with some degree of certainty is that most films start with a screenplay, so too will that be our starting point.

First off, even though some pundits have already read many of 2015's buzz-
worthy scripts, landing a nomination depends much more on how well the film is received overall than on the calibre of the writing. It makes spitballing these categories as much of a crapshoot as Best Picture, but there are some distant Best Original Screenplay contenders that certainly look promising enough on paper.