Oscar Postmortem Pt. 1: The results

I ended the year with the same numbers I did last year: 19 out of 24 categories correct. That may be just slightly below the average being scored by most pundits this year (who are mostly 20 or higher), but I'm satisfied with it. Let's take a look at just a few of the winners (and losers, but we'll try not to be too mean about it!) after the cut:

My Award nominees for 2013 year in film

Here there are, all in one place for your perusal. Leading the way with nine nominations apiece are 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. At a distant second is Before Midnight with six, followed by Short Term 12, Her, and Inside Llewyn Davis each with five. Winners go up tomorrow.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave -- S. McQueen, B. Pitt, D. Gardner, B. Pohlad, A. Katagas, J. Kleiner, A. Milchan

Before Midnight -- R. Linklater, Christos V. Konstantakopoulos, Sara Woodhatch

Gravity -- Alfonso Cuaron, David Heyman

Short Term 12 -- Maren Olson, Ron Najer, Joshua Astrachan, Asher Goldstein

Stories We Tell -- Anita Lee

One Category at a Time: Best Picture

It's that time of year: This is the point of the season at which we are practically begging for the Oscars to finally be over and done with, as the preordained winner of the Best Picture Oscar waits impatiently (but none too nervously) to hear its title called after more than three long months of rigorous campaigning and precursor award victories. At least, that's what usually happens at this point of the season. This year, however, is unlike any I've observed before. The standard three-month march towards inevitability has been replaced by a three-month build of suspense, as this Best Picture derby has boiled down to a true crap shoot, and one at which multiple contenders (not just the two presumed frontrunners) have a plausible chance of winning.

It all started with the critics. While the highest profile groups went their own way -- New York anointing American Hustle and L.A. ending in an unprecedented tie between Her and Gravity -- it was ultimately 12 Years a Slave that settled in as the favourite with regional critics groups across America. The Golden Globes, though not hugely influential in their own right, shook things up by proving that the harrowing slavery drama could win the top prize on prestige alone, even if not genuinely loved enough to claim any categorized prizes. SAG gave a boost to mainstream option American Hustle, causing reasonable suspicion that it could be the one to beat, but then came the TSN turning point of the season: The Producers Guild of America, heretofore the unblemished harbinger of Oscar, split the decision between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave... with a preferential ballot to boot! (And I thought the LAFCA tie was a shocker!)

Connecting with the Movies of 2013

How does one begin to relate the white-knuckle space adventure of a thrill ride like Gravity to the soberly grounded realism of a docudrama like Captain Phillips? How is the intimate conversation piece Before Midnight at all similar to the sprawling historical tragedy 12 Years a Slave? What do any of these films have in common with each other – or any of the dozens of other applicable films released in the past 12 months – besides the fact that they are among the finest motion pictures of 2013? It's a question I find myself asking not only this year (which is being touted as one of the best for American cinema in a critic's age), but every year, as my mind mulls over the thematic patterns that connect the cream of the annual movie crop.

In 2009, 'escapism' was the pervasive theme connecting such disparate stories as Up in the Air, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, An Education, and Precious, among others; In 2011, 'nostalgia' and 'inspiration' connected many of the year's most celebrated titles, including The Artist, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, and many more; And for me, 2013's greatest films were connected by... well, 'connection'. Indeed, and as generic as it sounds, it's hard for me to recall a year in which so many memorable screen characters seem to triumph or fail as direct result of the connections they forge (or don't forge) between themselves and their fellow human beings.

One Category at a Time: Original Screenplay

This category seems pretty up in the air if you ask me. With neither of the two strongest Best Picture nominees in contention here, it feels as though this prize could go a few different ways. A similar situation arose last year when Django Unchained, Amour, and Zero Dark Thirty all seemed to have an angle in this race because none of them had a hope of actually winning Best Picture (whose highest contenders were adaptations). I can also envision three of this year's nominees as potential winners, so let's start with the one I am picking (with trepidation) for the win.

One Category at a Time: Production Design

The Academy has thrown me for a loop in this category more often than any other craft category in recent years. When I predicted the weathered frontier recreations of There Will Be Blood they went with the stylized gothic environs of Sweeney Todd. When I predicted the refined set decoration of The King's Speech they went with the gaudy excess of Alice in Wonderland. So last year, I thought I'd get wise by predicting the lavish stylings of Anna Karenina to rule the day, and what do they do? They give it to the immaculate minutia of Lincoln! Suffice it to say I don't know how that win ever happened (not that it was in any way unworthy), but I'm willing to assume that it's more the exception than the rule. Typically, excess is what wins out in this category, even if it's against Best Picture nominated films.

One Category at a Time: Original Song

Oh, where to begin with this category. Last year it looked like the music branch had maybe taken a step towards not embarrassing themselves on a yearly basis, having recently overhauled their voting system to yield five respectable (if not unanimously exceptional) nominees. Well, that streak was short-lived, as this year saw the suspicious nomination of the ultra-obscure Alone Yet Not Alone for music branch executive committee member Bruce Broughton, who apparently sent out emails soliciting votes. The Academy went and humiliated Mr. Broughton even further by revoking the nomination, but then decided not to replace it with another song, which is so sad and unfair for that sixth place song, whatever it may have been.

It's all a moot point anyhow. It's not as if Alone Yet Not Alone's disqualification has suddenly cleared the path for anything else to win, although the situation raises some questions about the where to draw the line on campaigning that merit discussion and possibly review. But now that the dust has settled, let's look at the four that remain:

One Category at a Time: Original Score

There are all sorts of theories on how the Academy votes for Best Original Score, arguably the most subjective of the craft categories. Appraisal of music is so prone to personal tastes that just when you think you've got the Academy pegged, they go and do something unpredictably awful (like award Gustavo Santaolalla a second consecutive Oscar for a score that makes liberal use of pre-existing compositions) or go and do something unpredictably cool (like give Trent Reznor an Oscar for an extremely atypical electronic soundtrack).

ADG winners

The Art Directors Guild (who should maybe following the Academy's suit and change their name to the Production Designers Guild?) handed out their seasonal hardware last night, and all three of the feature film winners are in the running for the Oscar. But will it mean all that much at the end of the day, or does this group's less-than-stellar predictive history suggest that a completely different film could win the big one?

For Best Period Production Design the ADG went for Catherine Martin's opulent Jazz Age decadence in The Great Gatsby, besting Best Picture heavyweights 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. She would be an unsurprising Oscar winner, both in this category and Best Costume Design, but last year's shocking victory for the refined minutia of Lincoln suggests that maybe those aforementioned Best Picture contenders still have more than a reasonable shot.

WGA winners!

While the Annies drag on, I have more than enough time to mention that the Writers Guild of America have awarded Her, Captain Phillips, and Stories We Tell in their feature film categories. This is an odd scenario in that I can see none of these winners repeating on Oscar night.

My Award nominations: Director

So many good films this year that I could fill this category entirely with directors of films that aren't even in my top five! But of course, since I always have a hard time divorcing a film from its direction, there is always significant overlap. But I won't tell you just yet which of these five Best Directors will go on to have their films shortlisted for my top award!

My Award nominations: Supporting Actress

Like it was with the men, work from Supporting Actresses this year was not quite as conspicuously strong as the leading roles, but there were a couple of real standouts in my opinion (and others' opinions too, going by the way awards bodies have been falling in line). Here are my top five:

My Award nominations: Original Screenplay

The adaptations may have been a bit sparsely populated this year, but the Original Screenplay race was dense with quality. Check out my five finalists after the cut.

My Award nominations: Original Score

I find myself repeating what I did with my Adapted Screenplay nominees: I hate to be negative on such a great year for film, but I gotta say that it was not a particularly great year for Original Scores specifically. The five listed after the cut are good, but in a normal year I think only a couple of them would have made my ballot. But enough crapping on my own nominees! Here are the five that made it:

Review - Her

Boy meets computer, boy loses computer in Spike Jonze's Her. But if you think this in any way resembles a typical love story, you'd be wrong... and right. Admittedly, how much you get out of this singular experiment in screen romance will hinge entirely on whether or not you can get past its bizarre premise. If not, you may find it to be unintentionally funny at best. But if you can bring yourself to buy it as more than a farfetched swing-and-a-miss, you may indeed discover a weirdly moving film whose subversive satire and thought-provoking themes border on the profound.

Theodore Twombly (Joaquin Phoenix following up his career-best work in The Master with yet another brilliant performance) can read people, but not connect with them. He works at a company that specializes in writing touching personal letters for people who lack the time or eloquence to do so themselves, and as gifted as Theodore is at anticipating the words that will move his clients, he is a lonely man – smarting from a painful breakup – who fears that he could never again be as moved as the readers of his ghost-written letters.

Guild noms keep rolling with American Cinema Editors

The ACE has joined the fray with their nominations for the Eddies. As expected, all four Best Picture frontrunners are represented.

The four feature film categories (plus commentary) after the cut:

Art Directors Guild nominees

The parade of guild announcements marches on with Art Directors Guild. Will we find all of the Oscar nominees in the fifteen films honoured by the ADG? Not necessarily. Five of the last 25 Oscar nominees in this category were ones passed over by the guild, so it's not lights out yet for Oz the Great and Powerful or The Invisible Woman, although there's certainly enough good work this year to keep them off the final ballot.

The nominees and my commentaries after the cut:

Gravity and Her win with LA critics

In a deadlocked voting slog that yielded three ties, the LA Film Critics Association finally finished announcing their year-end superlatives, and the conjoint winners of their Best Picture prize are Gravity and Her.

Gravity also nabbed honours for Directing, Cinematography, and Editing (all of them very possible Oscar victories too). Her only managed to win one additional award for Production Design, but was runner-up for Music, Director, and Screenplay.

Speaking of Screenplay, that's my favourite pick of the day, going to Before Midnight, which I'll be rooting for all year long in this category. Another selection that delights me is Ernest & Celestine for Animated Feature. Even though its English translation has not yet been released, the warm and whimsical story of a bear and mouse forming an unlikely friendship still won me over in its native French tongue. Besides, we wouldn't want The Wind Rises hogging all the critics awards, would we?

The other two ties of the came in the Acting races, with Best Supporting Actor going between Jared Leto and James Franco, and Best Actress going between Cate Blanchett and Adele Exarchopoulos.

Full list of winners below.

NBR names Spike Jonze's "Her" year's best

Another day, another precursor triumph for a film I won't get to see for ages. The National Board of Review named Spike Jonze's postmodern romance Her the Best Picture of 2013, with Jonze himself taking Best Director honours as well. Nebraska picked up a pair of acting honours for stars Bruce Dern and Will Forte (both of them arguable co-leads).

My favourite choices of the lot: Stories We Tell for Best Doc (but you already knew that), and Prisoners for Best Ensemble (it'll definitely be making my top five ensembles of the year).