I don't know if I'm gonna watch these tonight. It's an awfully long show and there are only five categories I give a damn about, and even saying that is a stretch.
We know who's going to win Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor (and probably Stunt Ensemble), but Best Ensemble and Supporting Actress are still very much up in the air.
If Melissa Leo triumphs here as she did at the Globes and the Critics' Choice, it looks like the Oscar is hers. But if anyone other than her wins, I think that gives an edge in the race to Hailee Steinfeld, who could benefit from vote splitting between Leo and her
Fighter costar Amy Adams (who actually gives the better performance).
Best Ensemble could go three ways as I see it. If
The Social Network wins, then it jumps back into a dead heat with
The King's Speech for Best Picture. The actors make up almost a third of the Academy membership, and a vote of confidence from them is a powerful advantage. If
The King's Speech wins, then it adds more fuel to the fire. Or it could go to
The Fighter, if they don't think awards for Bale and Leo is reward enough, and that throws a whole new monkey wrench into the works.
My Predictions:
Best Ensemble: The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth,
The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman,
Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale,
The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo,
The Fighter
Best Stunt Ensemble: Incpetion
