One Category at a Time: Best Picture

Ordinarily, any self-respecting Academy Awards prognosticator (is there such a thing?) would be mightily embarrassed to guess Best Picture -- often the most predictable of categories -- incorrectly for two straight years.

But these last two years have been anything but ordinary.

A mere twelve months ago, many pundits, stunned by the unprecedented PGA tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, were calling it arguably the closest race in Oscar history. Flash forward and we have another Oscar race that, while perhaps not the closest of all time, is certainly not at a lack of suspense when it comes to the top prize. It's a good thing.

Traditionally, I've broken down the Best Picture contest by analyzing which films have the requisite trifecta of nominations; Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Director. This year, for reasons that will be discussed, I have to throw all that out the window. The preferential ballot has made it possible for a movie to win without being cited in all three of those categories. A film-by-film rundown seems more appropriate.

What to do about film editing and sound mixing?

I've already written my pieces about Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing, but it bears repeating:

These categories are really freakin' tough to predict. More so this year than usual.

Whiplash has the type of editing style that frequently wins Oscars, but have enough voters actually seen the scrappy Sundance alumnus that barely passed $10M at the box office? How many Academy members are buying the "12 years of footage" byline in Boyhood? American Sniper is certainly the wild card in the category and I may stick with it as my final prediction (hey, you need to allow yourself at least a few against-the-grain guesses), but it'll be a game time decision.

Best Sound Mixing is an equally frustrating three-way race. The driving musical rhythms of Whiplash certainly stand out, but it's a question of how many voters have seen it? Don't let J.K. Simmons' domination of Best Supporting Actor fool you; There are a ton of people who will vote for him without having seen his performance (dude's beloved). And will the sound really jump out at people on screener? Birdman has brilliant sound work that excels by not drawing attention to itself, but neither did the likes of Hugo or Slumdog Millionaire. And American Sniper looks strong in sound editing, so how does it makes sense not to predict it here, given how rare splits are?

All of this is simply to say: Don't be surprised if my prediction sidebar toggles back and forth on these categories over the next few days. I'm also having similar debates about Best Foreign Language Film, which I'll address tomorrow.

[UPDATE:] I'm also reneging on a couple of my initial thoughts in the shorts. All will be finalized by Sunday morning at the latest.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

Well... I got nothin'.

I've been very hit-and-miss in this category as of late, failing to guess the retrospectively obvious win for Gravity last year and the forever unobvious win for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo two years before that. But I ain't never seen a Best Film Editing race as confusing as this year's, in which the Best Picture favourite isn't even in the running, and almost every nominee feels like a possible – heck, even a likely – winner.

'Birdman' and 'Sniper' Both Win MPSE Awards

The Motion Picture Sound Editors spread the wealth at last night's Golden Reel Awards, bestowing trophies upon the Oscar-nominated sound editing teams of Birdman, American Sniper, Unbroken, among others not cited by the Academy's sound branch; Big Hero 6, Get On Up, The Liberator, and Warsaw Uprising.

American Sniper's victory came on its sole nomination, Best Sound Effects and Foley, commonly seen as the closest descriptor of the Oscar for sound editing.

I'm starting to smell a bit of a Hugo-v.-War-Horse situation brewing in the sound categories...

'Birdman' Complicates Sound Mixing Race with CAS Win

In a busy guild evening that also included the WGA and the MHG, The Cinema Audio Society announced their picks for the best mixed soundtracks of the year last night. While the former two guilds decided on winners that basically align with the current pundit logic of who will win the respective Oscar categories for writing and makeup (The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and possibly Guardians of the Galaxy), the CAS has thrown the Best Sound Mixing contest for a bit of a loop.

Birdman, with its artfully arranged sonic subtleties and crazy guild momentum, bested its louder competitors (and fellow Oscar nominees) American Sniper and Interstellar. Alejandro G. Inarritu's backstage dramedy is clearly the industry favourite overall, primed to claim the Best Picture Oscar in a week's time, but it would just make such an atypical winner in this field. Even Hugo had more conspicuous sound work.

One Category at a Time: Actor

It seems every year that Best Actor is, if not the most competitive Oscar category, then certainly the cruelest. Every season we see at least a half dozen nomination-worthy performances unable to make the final five. The whole Selma and #OscarsSoWhite controversy may have unwittingly made a thespian martyr of David Oyelowo for his tragic snub, but he's in good company with the likes of Jake Gyllenhaal, Ralph Fiennes, Timothy Spall, Channing Tatum, Oscar Isaac, Ben Affleck, Miles Teller, Matthew McConaughey, Andy Serkis, and the late great Philip Seymour Hoffman on the sidelines. There just isn't enough room.

It makes it particularly true that it's an honour just to be nominated for these five men, a couple of whom can relax and enjoy the show with the knowledge that they won't be winning. For those of us who follow this awards madness closely, however, it will be the one suspenseful acting award of the night, as we nervously wait to see if a beloved veteran can fend off the late advances of younger A-listers with more typical Oscar roles.

"Ornithologist, philatelist, philanthropist, Oscar nominee."

One Category at a Time: Sound Editing

For the first time in as long as I can remember, none of the Academy's nominees for Best Sound Editing are ones I would have nominated myself for my own personal ballot. But that's not to imply that the sound branch has dropped the ball. Quite the opposite, as the five they settled on are a most respectable lineup.

It speaks more to the diversity and high quality of the work from which to choose, and there's never a dearth of aural accomplishments in a town that cranks out bombastic blockbusters and sonic showcases with such exhausting regularity.

It's worth noting that the Academy at large will sometimes throw a bone to the 'loud' action movies in this category over Best Picture nominees (Skyfall,
The Dark Knight, and The Bourne Ultimatum are recent examples), although if they can have their cake and eat it too, they will; Best Picture nominees that are also 'loud' movies -- such as Gravity, Zero Dark Thirty, Inception or The Hurt Locker -- are hard to beat.

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

The sound categories are one arena where the Academy and I haven't always seen eye to eye -- or heard ear to ear, if you will. Only two of this year's Oscar nominees for Best Sound Mixing are represented on my own personal ballot, which is at least two more than I can say about our complete lack of overlap in Best Sound Editing (which I'll dig into on Thursday).

Still, even if I don't agree that whatever they deem to be the best is actually the best, they've never voted for a movie whose sound mix is outright bad. But this year there's a very real possibility of that happening.

What's that, Matt? Speak up!

I can't hear you over this intentionally muddled sound mix!

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

The state of the writing categories for this year's Academy Awards really is a tale of two contests; One is as competitive and over-stuffed with quality as I've ever seen it, while the other is practically a wasteland of mediocrity (with the only truly exceptional screenplay appearing courtesy of an Academy error in its favour).

Today we're looking at the latter, Best Adapted Screenplay, which is so thin on genuine contenders that they had to poach one of the surefire nominees from the Original Screenplay camp just to fill things out!

Review - American Sniper

Pulling a trigger may be the single most dehumanizing act there is. Every time one person makes the conscious decision to end the life of another, they lose a part of themselves that cannot be retrieved. Most people would grow ill at the thought of performing this act even once. What kind of person would it take to have done it 160 times? How would he/she feel?

In Clint Eastwood's American Sniper, we're introduced to the real-life figure that epitomizes the moral quandary at the root of killing for one's country; NAVY Seal Chris Kyle, who became the deadliest shot in U.S. military history over the course of four tours in Iraq, earning him the nickname 'Legend'. But an introduction is not the same as an examination, and as riveting an introduction it is at times, it does not delve deep enough into the man behind the 'legend'.

87th Academy Award Nominations!!!

Oscar noms are here! And as is always the case on this most exciting of mornings, the Academy had a handful of surprises to keep us interested.

I think the biggest takeaway from this year's crop is that for the first time since shifting to the variable number of nominees, the Best Picture race yielded less than nine contenders. Instead, we have eight, all of which I predicted, but my ninth prediction (Nightcrawler) was obviously less beloved than all those guilds suggested.

The nomination leaders are Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, racking up nine apiece. Close behind was The Imitation Game with eight, followed by Boyhood and American Sniper with six.

So what to glean from all this? To my eyes, this is now a three horse race between The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, and Boyhood. They are the only Best Picture nominees to additionally turn up in the three essential categories of director, screenplay, and editing.

The big losers of the day? Well, hard as it may be to think of a Best Picture nominee being a big loser, Selma has clearly underperformed with the industry, earning only two nominations total. The aforementioned Nightcrawler failed to translate its precursor love into Academy love, earning but a lone citation (at least a worthy one, for Dan Gilroy's screenplay, but ouch for Gyllenhaal!).

And what of the one-hit wonders? Films that you weren't expecting to get anything but suddenly pop up in single category thus earning the title "Academy Award nominee". There are a few of them in Best Visual Effects and Best Original Song, including The LEGO Movie which shockingly missed on a Best Animated Feature nomination (that's gotta smart for Phil Lord and Chris Miller, the presumed frontrunners until now).

Some other films did pretty well for themselves despite being outside the Best Picture conversation. Interstellar picked up five nods, including two contentious ones in both sound categories. Foxcatcher picked up five as well, but failed to gain entry to the Best Picture race. Mr. Turner picked up four in the craft categories.

I'll make some more commentaries on the individual categories throughout the morning, but I'll conclude for the moment with a quick list of best nominations and the worst snubs:

-Foxcatcher for director and screenplay...HELL YEAH!
-Captain America for visual effects...HELL YEAH!
-Ida for cinematography...HELL YEAH!
-Both Song of the Sea and Princess Kaguya for animated feature...HELL YEAH!
-Marion Cotillard for actress...HELL YEAH! (No offense to Jen, but I wasn't particularly looking forward to Cake)
-Whiplash for sound mixing...HELL YESSSSSS! Seriously, let's make this one happen.

-Glen Keane snubbed for animated short...HELL NO!
-No Theory of Everything for makeup...HELL NO!
-No Gyllenhaal for actor...HELL NO!
-No Force Majeure for foreign film...HELL NO!
-No Fury for sound...HELL NO!
-No Godzilla for, uh, anything...HELL NO!

[UPDATE:] I've tabulated my overall prediction results, and I correctly anticipated 81 of 106 nominations (I didn't attempt the shorts), identical to my results from last year! So as a tie breaker I decided to look at my early predictions to see how they compared to last year's. I guessed 34 nominees way back in May. Again, identical to last year! Am I plateauing?

Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
It's kind of odd that there was enough passion for Selma to sneak in here but that it only received one additional nomination, while Foxcatcher (which I'm delighted to see pop up in five categories!) didn't have enough support to be a ninth nominee. Five of these eight are in my top ten, but the other three don't even come close. I can't help but feel that it's one of those three that will win, but we'll have to wait for the PGA until we can be sure.

'Birdman' and 'Apes' Lead MPSE Nods

On the eve of Oscar morning, the Motion Picture Sound Editors announced their nominees for the year's best achievements in sound design and editing. Birdman and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes lead all contenders with three nods apiece, and both are fine honourees for their excellent sound jobs (although I may be more impressed with Birdman's overall mix than with the editorial).

The most Oscar-indicative category is Best Sound Effects/Foley, which also features Oscar hopefuls Unbroken, Interstellar, Fury, and American Sniper, joined by a pair of Marvel blockbusters in Captain America and Guardians of the Galaxy.

Best Sound Effects/Foley
American Sniper
Birdman
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken
I expect the Oscar five will be a permutation of these eight, but which three drop out? Despite its impressive showing here, I'm just not sure the Apes franchise is embraced as warmly by the Academy as it aught to be. I also don't expect either of the Marvel efforts, but I could certainly be wrong. Fury deserves to be the winner, but Best Picture clout may aid American Sniper in this race.

CAS Nominees include... Interstellar?

The Cinema Audio Society has named their choices for the best sound mixes of the year, and the biggest jaw-dropper is that apparently they heard something in Interstellar that the rest of us couldn't hear (literally, couldn't hear). How can this happen? And from a group of sound mixing professionals, no less!?!

I wonder if, assuming it gets the nominations, it might take both sound categories at the Oscars just because it seems on paper to be that 'type' of movie. Do the right thing, Academy: Actually listen to the films and decide what you think has the best sound.

For instance, a film like, say, Birdman (also nominated by the CAS) is a great example of a movie wherein the clarity of the sound recording and post-production mix does an excellent job of pulling you into the scene.

Two of the other nominees are ones I'm currently predicting for Oscar nods; American Sniper and Unbroken, although I have to think long and hard about the latter's real chances. Rounding out the five is Guardians of the Galaxy, which I wouldn't expect to score anywhere beyond effects and makeup with AMPAS.

The five CAS nominees, again, are:

American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken

The animated contenders after the cut.

Producers Guild anoint ten, 'Selma' not among them

The PGA's nomination have landed, and the big ten are:

American Sniper - Bradley Cooper, Clint Eastwood, Andrew Lazar, Robert Lorenz, Peter Morgan
Birdman - Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole
Boyhood - Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland
Foxcatcher - Megan Ellison, Jon Kilik, Bennett Miller
Gone Girl - Ceán Chaffin
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales
The Imitation Game - Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman
Nightcrawler - Jennifer Fox, Tony Gilroy
The Theory of Everything - Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten
Whiplash - Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster

Par for the course. I anticipated nine of these. With American Sniper and Nightcrawler picking up steam heading towards Thursday's voting deadline, I'm inclined to believe at least one of them will crack the Academy's Best Picture lineup. But which one? I think Nightcrawler might be a touch too cool for the older demographic that dominates AMPAS, and that many of them will be eager to vote for a decent Clint Eastwood movie (his first in years, so I'm told).

ACE Eddie nominees yield a couple of surprises

Next week promises to be a crazy busy one for awards watchers with no less than six guilds announcing their nominees. But getting a jump on all of them are the American Cinema Editors, who offered up their opinion of the best edited films of the year this morning.

Most of the biggest players in the Best Picture race found some love from the editors, except for Selma which might be suffering the effects of a super late release.

But the more interesting than any snubs are the entrants that weren't entirely expected: Nightcrawler and American Sniper both turned up in the Drama category -- which has six nominees due to a tie -- and that can only be a good omen for these Best Picture dark horses during this crucial voting period (ballots went out on Monday and are due next Thursday).

Check out all the nominees with some additional comments after the cut.