One Category at a Time: Best Picture

It's that time of year: This is the point of the season at which we are practically begging for the Oscars to finally be over and done with, as the preordained winner of the Best Picture Oscar waits impatiently (but none too nervously) to hear its title called after more than three long months of rigorous campaigning and precursor award victories. At least, that's what usually happens at this point of the season. This year, however, is unlike any I've observed before. The standard three-month march towards inevitability has been replaced by a three-month build of suspense, as this Best Picture derby has boiled down to a true crap shoot, and one at which multiple contenders (not just the two presumed frontrunners) have a plausible chance of winning.

It all started with the critics. While the highest profile groups went their own way -- New York anointing American Hustle and L.A. ending in an unprecedented tie between Her and Gravity -- it was ultimately 12 Years a Slave that settled in as the favourite with regional critics groups across America. The Golden Globes, though not hugely influential in their own right, shook things up by proving that the harrowing slavery drama could win the top prize on prestige alone, even if not genuinely loved enough to claim any categorized prizes. SAG gave a boost to mainstream option American Hustle, causing reasonable suspicion that it could be the one to beat, but then came the TSN turning point of the season: The Producers Guild of America, heretofore the unblemished harbinger of Oscar, split the decision between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave... with a preferential ballot to boot! (And I thought the LAFCA tie was a shocker!)

Last minute question marks and wishlist

Ballots have been in for two days now, and there's nothing left to do but wait for the final results to be unveiled on Sunday night. Most pundits have settled on their predictions after weeks of deliberation, but for me, these dwindling days are often when my initially settled predictions suddenly become unsettled! There are some huge question marks that'll have me waffling on this category or that from now until their envelopes are opened. Here are some lingering uncertainties I have heading into the big show, accompanied by a small wishlist that would be oh so satisfying to see happen:

Connecting with the Movies of 2013

How does one begin to relate the white-knuckle space adventure of a thrill ride like Gravity to the soberly grounded realism of a docudrama like Captain Phillips? How is the intimate conversation piece Before Midnight at all similar to the sprawling historical tragedy 12 Years a Slave? What do any of these films have in common with each other – or any of the dozens of other applicable films released in the past 12 months – besides the fact that they are among the finest motion pictures of 2013? It's a question I find myself asking not only this year (which is being touted as one of the best for American cinema in a critic's age), but every year, as my mind mulls over the thematic patterns that connect the cream of the annual movie crop.

In 2009, 'escapism' was the pervasive theme connecting such disparate stories as Up in the Air, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, An Education, and Precious, among others; In 2011, 'nostalgia' and 'inspiration' connected many of the year's most celebrated titles, including The Artist, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, and many more; And for me, 2013's greatest films were connected by... well, 'connection'. Indeed, and as generic as it sounds, it's hard for me to recall a year in which so many memorable screen characters seem to triumph or fail as direct result of the connections they forge (or don't forge) between themselves and their fellow human beings.

One Category at a Time: Sound Editing

As it is in Best Sound Mixing, the competition for the Best Sound Editing trophy seems to be pretty well sewn up. Even though a 4/5 overlap with the former category makes a separate analysis of the latter somewhat redundant, let's take a look at the nominees anyhow. After all, last year saw the first time ever that the two sound awards were split between three films, so clearly the Academy doesn't always lump the two together -- often, but not always.

One Category at a Time: Film Editing

As I mentioned about a week ago in my ACE Eddies recap, this is one of those categories on which the jury is out. The BAFTAs failed to clarify the issue, and traditional logic tells us that we should predict one of the ACE winners to take the Oscar as well (only three times in the last 23 years did the Oscar go to a film that did not win the Eddie), but it would be foolish to ignore the potential sweep that could make an Oscar winner out of an Eddie loser.

MPSE honours Gravity, Captain Phillips

The Motion Picture Sound Editors spread the wealth last night, handing no more than one award to any film in contention, but the main prize of Best Sound Effects and Foley (which correlates most closely to the Academy's Sound Editing award) went to Gravity. Captain Phillips picked up a win as well for its ADR, but none of the other prize winners are up for the Oscar. Read the list after the cut.

ACE Eddie winners

One of the craft categories I'm having the hardest time predicting this year is Best Film Editing. I may keep going back and forth on the issue right up until the eve of the Oscars (and possibly well into the show)! But last night's American Cinema Editors (ACE Eddie) Awards lent some clarity into what the experts themselves think, and the news is not at all surprising.

Christopher Rouse took home top honours in Best Edited Feature (Drama) for Captain Phillips, and may well take the Oscar as well on March 2nd. Even though the film is apparently not the strongest Best Picture contender, having missed out on Best Director and Actor nominations, sometimes the Academy does vote for the film with the most obvious editing. Remember The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Black Hawk Down, The Matrix, and The Bourne Ultimatum (which brought Rouse his first Oscar) managed to win without Best Picture nominations even. Still, one gets the feeling that a Gravity sweep could tilt this category in Alfonso Cuaron's favour.

One Category at a Time: Sound Mixing

This is another one of those categories that seems fairly transparent from afar. I suspect one film to be unanimously predicted by pundits, and then to win, naturally. But even though it looks to be an open and shut case, the other nominees sport excellent sound work, and very much deserve the recognition that their nominations imply.

The sound branch nominated four of the same titles that were cited by the Cinema Audio Society, with only Iron Man 3 failing to translate that CAS nod into an Oscar nod. That is all very usual. Also very usual is the high degree of overlap between this category and Best Sound Editing. Only one of the Sound Mixing nominees did not receive an accompanying nomination in its brother category, and that's the one we'll start with...

One Category at a Time: Supporting Actor

Plenty of variety for Oscar voters to choose from in this category, which didn't deviate too far from my own preferences. The only actor who could claim to be snubbed is Daniel Bruhl, who was excellent in Rush. I must admit I'm saddened by it. I thought he was good enough to be nominated back in 2005 for the wonderful German comedy Goodbye, Lenin, and a nomination looked like it was in the cards this time, especially after being up for the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Award. That said, there is a certain justice to this cruelty, as a nomination for him here would've been blatant category fraud, so let's be happy we skirted that controversy.

Anyway, of the actual nominees, a clear frontrunner has asserted himself:

WGA winners!

While the Annies drag on, I have more than enough time to mention that the Writers Guild of America have awarded Her, Captain Phillips, and Stories We Tell in their feature film categories. This is an odd scenario in that I can see none of these winners repeating on Oscar night.

One Category at a Time: Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay was the only category I guessed 100% correctly for nominations this year, but given the how thin the field of contenders was, that's hardly worth bragging about. That being said, I think the final five are a perfectly respectable lineup; Naturally I would think that, having myself nominated all of them for my awards for writing. Still, it would have been nice to see the writing branch look outside the box at contenders like Short Term 12, The Spectacular Now, or Blue is the Warmest Color (The latter two of which I haven't seen yet, but have heard good things).

Anyway, on to the actual nominees, from whom the eventual winner looks to be fairly obvious.

My Award nominations: Editing

Had to make some heartbreaking decisions to whittle this category down to five. Lots of terrific Editing work this year, and in different ways too. Here are the five I ultimately settled on (although I could just as easily substitute any of my "just missed" picks at any time):

My Award nominations: Supporting Actor

The story of the year seemed to be more about the leading men (and that's fair), but there was still some excellent work from the supporting ranks. Read about my five picks for the Best Supporting Actors of 2013 after the cut.

Delayed knee-jerk reactions to Oscar nominees

Had a busy day so I never had the time to write a proper reaction piece to this morning's Oscar nomination announcement, but after sifting through the tea leaves a bit, I've gleaned some notes that I feel are worth mentioning/praising/bitching about.

Motion Picture Sound Editors nominate

The final guild to drop its list of year-end nominees -- on the eve of Oscar nominations no less -- is the MPSE.

The most important category, Best Sound Effects and Foley, includes Oscar hopefuls Gravity, Captain Phillips, Lone Survivor, and All Is Lost, among others.

The only conspicuous omission is Rush, and I gotta say, I don't understand the industry's resistance to this movie. Sure, I didn't love it, but there's a lot of craftsmanship to appreciate. The fact that it's also been shut out by the CAS, the Makeup and Hairstylists Guild, and the ASC in a field of seven nominees...
Way. Harsh.

Anyway, check out all the categories and my thoughts after the cut.

My Award nominations: Adapted Screenplay

I hate to be a downer (the whole reason I blog at all is to celebrate the movies), but I gotta admit: weak year for Adapted Screenplays. I struggled to find five that I felt merited awards consideration. And in a normal year, my "Just missed" titles wouldn't even be third tier contenders.

But it is what it is, and the five that I did decide on are still fine works. Read about them after the cut.

BAFTA kicks off busy day of precursor announcements

The British Academy of Film and Television have unveiled their full slate of nominees for this year's BAFTAs, and the main takeaway: They really like Gravity. Alfonso Cuaron's space adventure lead the pack with eleven nominations, including ones for Best Original Screenplay and Best British film which not a lot of people saw coming. It would seem to be the odds-on favourite to win with this group, and that could go a long way in bolstering its chances with winning the Oscar as well. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Gravity's fellow Best Picture frontrunners American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave are right behind it with ten nominations a head. Your likely fourth place finisher in the Best Picture race, Captain Phillips, has nine.

Full list of nominees (plus brief commentaries) after the cut.

Review - Captain Phillips

For freight liner captain Richard Phillips (Tom Hanks), the day starts with a mundane drive to the airport with his wife, casually discussing the challenges their children will face in the modern workforce. “It's tough out there these days,” he ruefully acknowledges. “... 50 guys competing for the same job.” Meanwhile, on the other side of the world in impoverished Somalia, 50 men are competing for a job as well; hoping to be selected to a pirate crew just to stay fed and pay off their warlord oppressors for another week.

The disparity between these two worlds – one of affluence and one with no opportunity at all – is made sharply visible when men from each clash violently on the high seas in Paul Greengrass' Captain Phillips. Based on harrowing true events that unfolded off the horn of Africa in 2009, Greengrass depicts in straight-faced detail how a band of four Somali pirates armed with automatic weapons pursued and boarded the Maersk Alabama and held its captain hostage in a confined lifeboat until the military intervened.

Early Oscar predictions - Part 1

Spring is in the air. As the warmer weather thaws me out of post-Oscar hibernation, it's time to start looking ahead to next winter in search of potential awards projects that just might tickle the Academy's fancy. I was going to hold of on this ludicrous practice until after the Cannes Film Festival wrapped up, but it's not like that would make my crystal ball any less foggy, so may as well get it over with.

Last year's early predictions turned out to be a typically imprecise 44/96, but believe it or not, that's actually the best I've ever done! Can I improve?

This is the first of five early predictions pieces I'll be posting this month. I'm starting out this week with Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Next Monday I'll finish off the major categories.