One Category at a Time: Best Actress

Even from this early vantage point, it's clear that 2011 is not at a lack for juicy leading female roles with big awards potential.

One of the most obvious contenders on everyone's radar is perennial favourite Meryl Streep in the role of former British PM Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Biopic roles are always held in Oscar's favour, even when the movie itself is not. Given Streep's incredible later-career popularity and the nature of the part, I'd say she's a very strong bet.

But perhaps she'll have some stiff competition from five-time nominee Glenn Close, a bonafide member of the "overdue club". She plays a woman who poses as a butler in 19th C Ireland in Albert Nobbs, which she also co-wrote. Sounds interesting enough to me, but will Oscar bite?

As counter point to those two established actresses, there's a chance newcomer Felicity Jones (who received strong reviews out of Sundance for her performance in Like Crazy) could be the ingenue of the year. But it's a small film, and whether or not it gains Jones any traction may come down how much critical favour it can curry.

A role which could garner some attention is recent nominee Michelle Williams as the singular Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marylin. Hollywood enjoys seeing Hollywood take on old-Hollywood, and playing that era's iconic sex symbol gives Williams a great opportunity to impress. But is she a lead or a co-lead? Vote-splitting could hurt.

Finally, I'm taking a bit of long shot on Rooney Mara (who I loved, if ever so briefly, in The Social Network), who will be tackling the role of Lisbeth Salander in David Fincher's remake of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The same role earned Swedish actress Noomi Rapace some awards consideration just this past year. Can the American version improve?

Predicted five:
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Felicity Jones in Like Crazy
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn or Take This Waltz
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Also consider: Anne Hathaway One Day, Jennifer Hudson Winnie, Keira Knightly A Dangerous Method, Robin Wright Penn The Conspirator, Emma Stone The Help, Tilda Swinton We Need to Talk About Kevin, Charlize Theron Young Adult, Rachel Weisz The Whistleblower