One Category at a Time: Best Actor

Johnny Depp, one of America's most elite actors (though it may be easy to forget, given his resume of late), stars in an adaptation of Hunter S. Thompson's The Rum Diary, written and directed by Barry Robison. I'm sure everyone is eager to see Depp take on a role that doesn't involve Jack Sparrow or Tim Burton. I know I am.

Ryan Gosling probably missed a nomination this past year by the skin of teeth, having given one of 2010's best performances in Blue Valentine. If the Academy wants to make it up to him (not saying they necessarily do), they may pay closer attention to his work in George Clooney's The Ides of March, in which he plays a disillusioned political staffer.

As for George Clooney himself, after laying low in 2010, he's on course to have a big year starring in Alexander Payne's The Descendants and his own directorial project The Ides of March. He faces internal competition from the latter's Ryan Gosling, but he is the main attraction in the former, which will allow him to tap into that well of understated emotion that he does so well.

David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method has two prime contenders in Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender, playing Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung respectively. Will vote splitting ruin both their chances? Will one be pushed to Supporting? Can they both sneak in? These questions depend on a number of factor's, including how well the film is received, but for the time being, it's safe to assume that biographical roles are in for their fair share of awards attention.

And finally, is Hollywood ready to forgive Mel Gibson? He's got a plum role in Jodie Foster's The Beaver, as an unbalanced man who can only communicate with others through a hand puppet. Oscar loves a good comeback, although it may still be too soon after Gisbon's tabloid antics for them to welcome him back to the flock with a nomination. We shall see.

Predicted five:
George Clooney in The Descendants or The Ides of March
Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary
Mel Gibson in The Beaver
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method

Also consider: Antonio Banderas The Skin That I Inhabit, Damien Bichir A Better Life, Matt Damon We Bought a Zoo, Michael Fassbender A Dangerous Method, Ralph Fiennes Coriolanus, James McAvoy The Conspirator, Brad Pitt Moneyball, Michael Shannon Take Shelter.

One Category at a Time: Best Original Screenplay

The field looks pretty adaptation-heavy this year, but I spy a few interesting original films with great promise.

The one which will garner many a cinephile's attention this spring is Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, at long last seeing a theatrical release after years on the shelf. If it impresses enough people to earn a Best Picture berth, as I've predicted, a writing nomination for Malick will likely follow.

But beyond that, I'm not finding a whole lot of original stories this year that immediately scream "Oscar bait". Maybe if independent drama Like Crazy catches on in an appreciable way, it could lead writers Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones to a nomination, but its chances are really no less bankable than any other small-scale dramedies and romances.

An example of one such small-scale dramedy is Jodie Foster's The Beaver, written by Kyle Killen and starring the infamous Mel Gibson. The premise is an intriguing one about an unbalanced man who communicates with the world by way of a beaver-resembling hand puppet. Sounds like there's lots of potential for comedy and interesting character development.

A writer/director combo who managed to successfully woo Oscar before is Diablo Cody and Jason Reitman (Juno), who will try to do so again with Young Adult, starring Charlize Theron as a woman still smitten with a now-married man. Or perhaps another previous Oscar nominee, Sarah Polley (Away From Her), can return to the big dance for Take This Waltz, with Michelle Williams and Seth Rogen.

Predicted five:
The Tree of Life
Like Crazy
Young Adult
The Beaver
Take This Waltz

Also consider: Beginners, The Conspirator, Contagion, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Midnight in Paris, Super 8, The Whistleblower