Oscar Predictions: The Shorts

I love the short film nominees. Honest I do, especially since it's become (relatively) easier to actually see them before the Oscars. But their increased availability -- whether through streaming or the annual Shorts HD theatrical package -- has made predicting them an exercise in masochism. It seems every time you think you have the Academy's patterns down in these categories, they always find some new way to subvert your expectations, and popular logic always seems to fly in the face of your gut instinct once you've seen them for yourself.

But predict them we do, and if I can ever manage to get any one out of the three of them right, I usually consider that a successful year. So check out out my picks after the cut. How poorly will I do?

Best Animated Short

One Category at a Time: Live-Action Short

Over in the Live-Action field, we're presented with another rich cultural cross-section ranging from Palestine to Kosovo to Germany to Afghanistan and the UK. Recently, voters have shown greater willingness to go for weepy offerings in this category than in animation, but I wonder if we're due for a more uplifting winner for a change.

One Category at a Time: Live Action Short (plus Docs)

One of the inarguable patterns that can be gleaned from this category is that American productions have a tough time getting nominated. Best Live Action Short is always heavy on international entries, resulting in a diverse cross-section of story content and cinematic styles. Shorts in this year's race hail from North Ireland, Switzerland, China, Israel, and the UK.

Last minute question marks and wishlist

Ballots have been in for two days now, and there's nothing left to do but wait for the final results to be unveiled on Sunday night. Most pundits have settled on their predictions after weeks of deliberation, but for me, these dwindling days are often when my initially settled predictions suddenly become unsettled! There are some huge question marks that'll have me waffling on this category or that from now until their envelopes are opened. Here are some lingering uncertainties I have heading into the big show, accompanied by a small wishlist that would be oh so satisfying to see happen:

One... er, Three Categories at a Time: The Shorts

For the last several years, Shorts International has done an excellent job at bringing the Oscar nominated short to theatres and other online outlets so that ordinary plebeians like myself can actually see all the entries in these once marginalized categories. There's something to be said for the creative liberation that many filmmakers enjoy when working with a shorter format, and this year's strong crop of mini-movies certainly verifies that. At the end of the day, good storytelling knows no length.

One (er, Two) Cateogries at a Time: Shorts

Once again, the short film nominees have been made available to the general public courtesy of Magnolia Pictures. The nominees for Best Live-Action Short and Best Documentary Short Subjects are all pretty strong contenders this year, making it tougher to guess who will win. As though the super competitive fields didn't complicate things enough, the decision to distribute the live-action shorts to Academy members via screener DVDs adds further layers of nuance to the prediction game. I could run around in circles trying to analyze these races, but I think it's better to just go with my gut in a couple of short paragraphs.

Academy rule change in three categories

DVD screeners are being sent out with the nominees for Best Documentary Feature, Live-Action Short, and Animated Short to all Academy members, eliminating the necessity to attend official screenings in order to vote them, although screenings are still being held.

How will this rule change affect the voting dynamic in these oft marginalized categories? Will it open the door for more populist fare to finally triumph over artistic fringe contenders? For instance, studio efforts haven't won Best Animated Short in years, so maybe this is good news for Disney's Paperman, one of the most breathtaking filmmaking displays of 2012. Does this help popular Best Documentary contender Searching for Sugar Man tighten its stranglehold on the Oscar? We shall see.

One... er, Three Categories at a Time: The Shorts

Thanks to Shorts International and Magnolia Pictures, all the nominees for Oscar's least exposed categories do get to see the light of day in select theatres, allowing us mere mortal Oscar pundits to make more informed (but not more accurate) predictions than we ever could before. In the interest of conciseness, I'm only going to briefly highlight the contenders of each race in a few quick blurbs. It's best not to over analyze these categories. There's no telling how the voters will lean any given year.

One Category at a Time: The Shorts

Okay, I guess the title of "One Category at a Time" is a bit of a misnomer for this post. But I can't pretend to be knowledgeable enough about these categories to give each of them a separate entry. The fact is, there really isn't any consistent logic that can help you predict these categories. There's no telling how the voting membership that shows up to the screenings will lean.

What I've found is that if I try to second-guess how they will vote instead of following my hunches, I almost always get it wrong. Last year, for instance, I tried to justify my guess that Wallace & Grommit: A Matter of Loaf and Death would win by citing all sorts of statistics and history, but my instinct kept telling me there's no way it could beat something as clever and original as Logorama. Should have listened to my gut, as indeed, the latter ended up taking the Oscar.

So from now on I'm just gonna go with my first impressions. They're more reliable than we give them credit for.

Best Animated Short
Not a particularly strong line-up. The Gruffalo has some cute moments but is stretched out far longer than need be. Let's Pollute is a one-note satire whose central gag gets old fast, despite being a mere six minutes long. The Lost Thing is visually imaginative, but is a tad slow and ultimately didn't feel like it was about anything to me. The two better shorts are Day & Night, a humourous and creative Pixar cartoon that anyone who saw Toy Story 3 has already seen, and Madagascar, A Journey Diary, which could (nay, should) win by virtue of its astonishing multidisciplinary animation.

Will win: Madagascar, A Journey Diary
Runner-up: The Lost Thing
Should win: Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Best Documentary Short
There's some very inspired work in this field. Sun Come Up shows how even the smallest and most removed of communities are affected by global problems - in this case, climate change. The Warriors of Quigang, also a very environmentally conscious film, communicates the power that a small community united can yield. Strangers No More would make a good companion piece to this year's Waiting for Superman for its heartstring-tugging examination of troubled students from different nations attending the same school. Poster Girl paints a devastating portrait of the underexposed evils of war, namely the psychological damage it inflicts on those who do the fighting. And Killing in the Name tells a powerful story of one who suffered tragedy at the hands of senseless terrorism, and turned it into motivation to affect change.

Will win: Poster Girl
Runner-up: Strangers No More
Should win: Poster Girl

Best Live-Action Short
Pretty good slate of nominees. I had some problems with the endings of The Confession and The Crush, both of which centre on child characters at first with cuteness, but eventually with dark outcomes. That said, they're both well directed and acted, particularly by the child actors. More to my liking was Wish 143, which found a way to make the depressing subject matter of a terminally ill teenager into a charmingly funny and touching quasi-buddy picture. But the two favourites, to my mind, are the engrossing and nerve-wracking Na Wewe (Hutu rebels try to separate Tustsis from a van of civilians), and the hilarious God of Love (loveable loser granted magic love darts). You couldn't have two more different films duking it out for the win.

Will win: Na Wewe
Runner-up: God of Love
Should win: God of Love

Shortlists for animated/live action shorts released

Via In Contention:

Live Action Shorts:
Ana’s Playground
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Seeds of the Fall
Shoe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man
Sma Barn, Stora Ord (Little Children, Big Words)
Wish 143

Animated Shorts:
The Cow Who Wanted to Be a Hamburger
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)
Sensology
The Silence beneath the Bark
Urs