Oscar Predictions: The Shorts

I love the short film nominees. Honest I do, especially since it's become (relatively) easier to actually see them before the Oscars. But their increased availability -- whether through streaming or the annual Shorts HD theatrical package -- has made predicting them an exercise in masochism. It seems every time you think you have the Academy's patterns down in these categories, they always find some new way to subvert your expectations, and popular logic always seems to fly in the face of your gut instinct once you've seen them for yourself.

But predict them we do, and if I can ever manage to get any one out of the three of them right, I usually consider that a successful year. So check out out my picks after the cut. How poorly will I do?

Best Animated Short

One Category at a Time: Documentary, Short Subjects

As per usual, the Academy's selections for Best Documentary Short are a sobering bunch, but all fascinating each in their own ways. Most pundits have agreed on who the frontrunner is, but I wonder if it's more up in the air...

One Category at a Time: Live Action Short (plus Docs)

One of the inarguable patterns that can be gleaned from this category is that American productions have a tough time getting nominated. Best Live Action Short is always heavy on international entries, resulting in a diverse cross-section of story content and cinematic styles. Shorts in this year's race hail from North Ireland, Switzerland, China, Israel, and the UK.

One... er, Three Categories at a Time: The Shorts

For the last several years, Shorts International has done an excellent job at bringing the Oscar nominated short to theatres and other online outlets so that ordinary plebeians like myself can actually see all the entries in these once marginalized categories. There's something to be said for the creative liberation that many filmmakers enjoy when working with a shorter format, and this year's strong crop of mini-movies certainly verifies that. At the end of the day, good storytelling knows no length.

One (er, Two) Cateogries at a Time: Shorts

Once again, the short film nominees have been made available to the general public courtesy of Magnolia Pictures. The nominees for Best Live-Action Short and Best Documentary Short Subjects are all pretty strong contenders this year, making it tougher to guess who will win. As though the super competitive fields didn't complicate things enough, the decision to distribute the live-action shorts to Academy members via screener DVDs adds further layers of nuance to the prediction game. I could run around in circles trying to analyze these races, but I think it's better to just go with my gut in a couple of short paragraphs.

One... er, Three Categories at a Time: The Shorts

Thanks to Shorts International and Magnolia Pictures, all the nominees for Oscar's least exposed categories do get to see the light of day in select theatres, allowing us mere mortal Oscar pundits to make more informed (but not more accurate) predictions than we ever could before. In the interest of conciseness, I'm only going to briefly highlight the contenders of each race in a few quick blurbs. It's best not to over analyze these categories. There's no telling how the voters will lean any given year.

Final Predictions for 83rd Academy Awards

With less than 48 hours to go until the big event, it's time to
man up and go on the record.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Film Editing: The Social Network
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costume Design: The King's Speech
Best Original Score: The King's Speech
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3 ("We Belong Together")
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film: In A Better World
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Animated Short: Madagascar, A Journey Diary
Best Live-Action Short: Na Wewe
Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More

*Notes:
-I have changed my initial guess in Best Documentary Short to Strangers No More. I'll kick myself if it does indeed end up going to Poster Girl, but seriously, how could we know? Roll a die in this category.
-While you're at it, roll a die in the Documentary Feature race as well, which is wiiiiide open. I've got a feeling Banksy (whose shenanigans around L.A. of late have been keeping him very much in the discussion) could pull out a win over the more serious Inside Job, which, I think, would be brilliant! But I'm also feeling Waste Land stands just as good a shot.
-Art Direction and Costume Design could ruin me. I'm guessing The King's Speech for both, but if they both end up going to Alice in Wonderland (which they easily could), I'll be mighty miffed.
-Best Director really feels like a coin toss. I'm sticking with Hooper, but it could go to Fincher. Would certainly make me happy.
-Best Supporting Actress... Arg! Such a close race. I almost want to see Jackie Weaver win it because no one seems to be expecting that.

Video (in two parts) after the cut.

One Category at a Time: The Shorts

Okay, I guess the title of "One Category at a Time" is a bit of a misnomer for this post. But I can't pretend to be knowledgeable enough about these categories to give each of them a separate entry. The fact is, there really isn't any consistent logic that can help you predict these categories. There's no telling how the voting membership that shows up to the screenings will lean.

What I've found is that if I try to second-guess how they will vote instead of following my hunches, I almost always get it wrong. Last year, for instance, I tried to justify my guess that Wallace & Grommit: A Matter of Loaf and Death would win by citing all sorts of statistics and history, but my instinct kept telling me there's no way it could beat something as clever and original as Logorama. Should have listened to my gut, as indeed, the latter ended up taking the Oscar.

So from now on I'm just gonna go with my first impressions. They're more reliable than we give them credit for.

Best Animated Short
Not a particularly strong line-up. The Gruffalo has some cute moments but is stretched out far longer than need be. Let's Pollute is a one-note satire whose central gag gets old fast, despite being a mere six minutes long. The Lost Thing is visually imaginative, but is a tad slow and ultimately didn't feel like it was about anything to me. The two better shorts are Day & Night, a humourous and creative Pixar cartoon that anyone who saw Toy Story 3 has already seen, and Madagascar, A Journey Diary, which could (nay, should) win by virtue of its astonishing multidisciplinary animation.

Will win: Madagascar, A Journey Diary
Runner-up: The Lost Thing
Should win: Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Best Documentary Short
There's some very inspired work in this field. Sun Come Up shows how even the smallest and most removed of communities are affected by global problems - in this case, climate change. The Warriors of Quigang, also a very environmentally conscious film, communicates the power that a small community united can yield. Strangers No More would make a good companion piece to this year's Waiting for Superman for its heartstring-tugging examination of troubled students from different nations attending the same school. Poster Girl paints a devastating portrait of the underexposed evils of war, namely the psychological damage it inflicts on those who do the fighting. And Killing in the Name tells a powerful story of one who suffered tragedy at the hands of senseless terrorism, and turned it into motivation to affect change.

Will win: Poster Girl
Runner-up: Strangers No More
Should win: Poster Girl

Best Live-Action Short
Pretty good slate of nominees. I had some problems with the endings of The Confession and The Crush, both of which centre on child characters at first with cuteness, but eventually with dark outcomes. That said, they're both well directed and acted, particularly by the child actors. More to my liking was Wish 143, which found a way to make the depressing subject matter of a terminally ill teenager into a charmingly funny and touching quasi-buddy picture. But the two favourites, to my mind, are the engrossing and nerve-wracking Na Wewe (Hutu rebels try to separate Tustsis from a van of civilians), and the hilarious God of Love (loveable loser granted magic love darts). You couldn't have two more different films duking it out for the win.

Will win: Na Wewe
Runner-up: God of Love
Should win: God of Love