Once
again, the short film nominees have been made available to the
general public courtesy of Magnolia Pictures. The nominees for Best
Live-Action Short and Best Documentary Short Subjects are all pretty
strong contenders this year, making it tougher to guess who will win.
As though the super competitive fields didn't complicate things
enough, the decision to distribute the live-action shorts to Academy
members via screener DVDs adds further layers of nuance to the
prediction game. I could run around in circles trying to analyze
these races, but I think it's better to just go with my gut in a couple
of short paragraphs.
Traditionally, the Oscar for Best Live-Action Short has been frequently awarded to films with polished production values, which might bode well for the beautifully made Death of a Shadow. However, with a larger pool voting on the category, perhaps the film's bizarre concept might be a turn off. They might go for something with more emotional resonance, like Curfew, the only American production on the ballot. Asad and Buzkashi Boys are nifty bookends in that they both perceive foreign nations replete with violence through the eyes of children. That sort of thing has turned the trick in the past, but those voters might be divided between the two. The one that feels i fifth place is Henry, which could appeal to the Academy's older demographic, although its thematic similarities to the revered quintuple-nominee Amour cause it to pale in comparison.
Will
win: Curfew
Runner-up:
Death of a Shadow
Should
win: Curfew
As
for the Documentary Short Subjects, there are some warring opinions
out there in the Oscarweb as to whether emotional reaction or subject
matter will triumph. The past four winners of this category have
featured stories of hope from developing nations, which makes Open
Heart – about the only hospital in Sudan able to treat eight
children with heart disease – look like a pretty typical winner. It
could be trumped, however, by the emotional power of Inocente
or Mondays at Racine, which
respectively follow an impoverished teenage artist and a hair salon
for female cancer patients. Redemption – about can
collectors in New York – might strike a chord with the
economy-conscious voters, while King's Point – a depressing
look at retirees in Florida – could certainly strike a chord with
older voters. Since this is now one of only two categories that still
require voters to attend sanctioned screenings (the other being
Foreign Film), I see no reason not to stick with the established
trend of this category and predict Open Heart. Not a safe
guess, but no guess would be safe. Any of them could win.
Will
win: Open Heart
Runner-up:
Inocente
Should
win: Inocente
